Suffolk Poll Says Harris Leads Trump In PA, Two Bellwether Counties

[RandySF]

Harris, the Democratic candidate, has a three-point lead over the Republican nominee, 49-46%, in a survey of 500 likely voters in the Commonwealth in a poll conducted Sept. 12-15. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of +/-4.4.

Pennsylvania is considered the most important swing state to both of the campaigns and its 19 electoral votes will go a long way to determining the occupant of the White House for the next four years.

The survey results showed that the vice president also led the former president in Northampton and Erie counties – two counties that have picked the winner of the last two presidential elections.

Harris had a five-point edge (50-45%) over Trump in Northampton County, located in eastern Pennsylvania and is the home of the cities of Bethlehem and Easton. President Joe Biden carried the county, 50-49%, in 2020 after Trump topped Hillary Clinton, 50-46%, in 2016.

In the northwest corner of the Commonwealth, Harris carries a four-point advantage over Trump, 48-44% – a larger margin than either winner produced in the last two elections. Biden squeezed out a 1-point edge (50-49%) in winning in 2020, while Trump had a two-point triumph in Erie, 49-47%, four years earlier.



https://www.politicspa.com/suffolk-poll-says-harris-leads-trump-in-pa-two-bellwether-counties/139264/

[twodogsbarking]

1. In case you didn't know. Top ten cities in Pa. by population.

Rank City Population
1 Philadelphia 1,550,542
2 Pittsburgh 303,255
3 Allentown 124,880
4 Reading city 94,903
5 Erie 92,957
6 Upper Darby 84,893
7 Scranton 75,805
8 Lower Merion 64,157
9 Bensalem 62,800
10 Abington 58,451

[Pototan]

2. Where's Harrisburg in relation to this list?

[twodogsbarking]

3. Harrisburg 17 49,984

[modrepub]

4. I'll Take It (With A Little Salt)

Keep in mind this is only a poll and not the real thing; but I'd rather be up 3% than down 3% at this stage.

Erie and Northampton may be bellwethers (indicators), but the real question will be how much of a Democratic cushion will voters in Philadelphia, Allegheny and Montgomery counties provide to counter weigh all the Republican vote surpluses in just about every other county in the Commonwealth. Democrats only win about a dozen of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. Though most Pennsylvania counties have less than 20k total votes in them.

Time will tell, hopefully enough results will be in to call Pennsylvania sometime in the early morning hours of Wednesday following the election.

[HagathaCrispy]

5. Observations from New Ken Arnold and Butler

(From a relative there who's a party supporter) Anyone who's not familiar these two towns are right on the river between Allegheny and Westmoreland and Butler is not but 20 minutes away. Butler is part suburban big city part old white and rural.
Westmoreland is overwhelmingly old white and rural. Shithead and Harris have been here several times. Shithead received over 60% of the vote in both counties.
There are more Trump signs out than Harris signs even here and you can Arnold we used to be a Democratic town but they elected a Republican mayor ever since Obama first ran is when it really went to hell for the Democrats but this area has been going downhill since the steel mills left in 1970

[BlueWavePsych]

6. Not a Shadow of a Doubt