Mayo model foresees omicron peak in Minnesota next week

[question everything]

Mayo Clinic's COVID-19 model predicts Minnesota's record wave of coronavirus infections will peak Jan. 26 and rapidly decline.

A quick peak to Minnesota's fifth pandemic wave would be welcome news, with the state on Tuesday reporting another 10,651 infections and 29 COVID-19 deaths. Tuesday's report, which updated pandemic activity in Minnesota through 4 a.m. Friday, included the deaths of three Minnesotans younger than 50 and increased the state's toll in the pandemic to 11,000.

(snip)

State health leaders cautioned that hospitalizations and deaths, delayed consequences of infection, could continue to increase for a few weeks after the peak.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota have increased this month from 1,329 on Jan. 2 to 1,610 Monday. However, the cases requiring intensive care have declined in that period from 283 to 248 — reflecting the lower rate of severe illness caused by omicron.

COVID-19, influenza and other medical concerns combined to fill 977 of 1,013 available adult intensive care beds in Minnesota on Monday — a 96% occupancy rate that is high, but not as bad as it was late last year when the number of open ICU beds was in the teens.

https://www.startribune.com/mayo-model-foresees-omicron-peak-in-minnesota-next-week/600137018/

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Hope they are right.

[progree]

1. "The latest data finds COVID levels in metro wastewater peaked around Jan. 10 and then

started falling"

Twin Cities wastewater data suggests omicron peak may be past
David H. Montgomery and Tim Nelson, January 18, 2022 5:12 p.m.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/01/18/wastewater-data-suggests-omicron-peak-may-be-past

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The article talks about how the reporting of cases by the Minnesota Dept of Health has become more erratic and more delayed, now the lag between testing and being reported by MDH is averaging 5 days. Due to high volumes of testing and a lot of lab workers being out sick.

Whereas metro area wastewater sample results (done daily but released weekly) doesn't have this problem. And tends to lead case results by about 5-7 days.

If accurate, the wastewater data would show the omicron surge peaked in the metro area about three weeks after it started rising. That matches up with what’s been seen in other places who faced omicron surges before Minnesota did.

A peak in the metro area’s COVID-19 outbreak would also not necessarily mean the rest of the state is out of the woods. The Twin Cities area saw cases spike in late December, about two weeks before most of greater Minnesota. That could mean greater Minnesota will see its peak about two weeks after the Twin Cities does, or somewhere around Jan. 24.

The Met Council’s wastewater data is available online here https://metrotransitmn.shinyapps.io/metc-wastewater-covid-monitor/