Massachusetts Senate Poll Shows Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown Running 'Neck-And-Neck'

[MADem]

We KNOW Rasmussen is biased, and we also know that they didn't poll cellphone users in any of these examples, but the importance of GOTV in this contest cannot be stressed too often:

WASHINGTON -- A new poll on the Massachusetts Senate race confirms what other recent surveys have shown, at least collectively. The race between Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren is close and likely to stay that way for the duration of the campaign.

Seen separately, however, the same polls paint an inconsistent picture, yielding everything from a 5 percentage point Warren advantage to a 9 percentage point Brown lead. While that variation's sources are difficult to pinpoint, it is likely to persist since poll methodologies differ widely and because many Massachusetts voters have not fully engaged in the race and are still weighing their choices.

The most recent automated telephone survey, conducted on April 9 by Rasmussen Reports, shows the two candidates "running neck-and-neck," with Warren at 46 percent and Brown at 45 percent.

That very close result is similar to the current estimate produced by the HuffPost Pollster chart, based on all public polls measuring voter preferences in the Massachusetts Senate race, shown below. The chart's trend lines currently give Brown an edge of just under two percentage points (44.6 to 42.7 percent)...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/10/massachusetts-senate-poll_n_1416174.html

[catbyte]

1. How is that even possible in Massachusetts?

I thought MA was such a "blue" state...WTF?!?

Diane
Anishinaabe in MI & mom to Leo, Sophie, Taz & Nigel, members of Dogs Against Romney, Cat Division
"We ride inside--HISS!”

[Mass]

2. Because she continues to be unknown, particularly to those that will make the difference, the

unenrolled (50%)

The super fundraising they have been touting is mostly from out of state. It will be great if she uses it to become better known in the state, but this is still a job in progress, particularly against somebody who has carved himself a reputation of being a moderate Republican.

[MADem]

5. She needs to beat the bushes out in the sticks, and push old Barn Coat Truck Boy outta the way. nt

[MADem]

4. Brown touts himself as an independent, and MA is disturbingly sexist in some ways.

You've got an aged cadre of Catholic voters that include women who vote against their own self-interests. Some of them have to be convinced to vote for a woman because they've been brought up to observe sex stereotypes and find politics an unseemly occupation for a woman. Some even resent the opportunities gained by generations that came after them (if I am miserable, everyone must be miserable).

We just don't do well enough on female representation in Congress. We've yet to have a female governor "in her own right" (not counting take-overs after resignations) and we have never had a female Senator. We have had a black Senator, but just "a" black Senator (Ed Brooke). The entire country sucks on that score--the Senate is just way too white-- and we really do need to change that up.

We're not the be-all and end-all here in the Bay State--close to a third of all voters in MA are registered independents, and they can go either way.

It's not as easy as it looks from afar, sometimes.

[Mass]

3. This is pretty much in sync with every other poll (except the PPP). It will be a hard race

but I hope it will become better once she gets out of this mode of courting Democratic activists and start focusing on the independents.

[MADem]

6. +1 nt

[SamG]

7. Women voters are going to be the key.

Obviously most non political men don't really bother to look at the differences.

Women need to vote in record numbers this fall. Brown supported the Blunt amendment, (I'm sure few non-enrolled men even know what that is), and Brown is nothing but an opportunist.

Seriously, I don't think this election will really have most voters focused until October. That's when Warren needs to spend her money and be out on every T platform and every bus stop in Springfield and Worcester and New Bedford or wherever, she needs to get those women and working men to vote for her there, not in some vague April phone polls.

[MADem]

8. I agree--year of the woman, again! Wasn't that 76 or so, last time around?

For now, EW just needs to get her name out there and have people repeating, over and over again, that she's "the one" who will do right by us.

I agree--no one focuses until after Labor Day, but it never hurts to do groundwork even in the doldrums of spring and summer.

[Earth495]

9. Warren will win

60%+ of the electorate in Massachusetts will start their ballot with President Obama selected. His coattails should bring Warren in.

[MADem]

10. I refuse to be complacent. I will GOTV like crazy.

I'll ferry as many people to the polls as I can manage on election day.

There are "ballot splitters" here--the indy population is large and growing larger, and they can be fickle and difficult.

[SamG]

15. Brown only won in a special election, right?

Obama was nowhere on that ballot.

Brown has performed miserably for almost 3 years, and has brought disgrace to the Kennedy name with some of his outrageous statements.

Brown is only seen as credible by a few radio talk show pundits and ignorant white male voters and their tag-along Teabagger wives.

I expect a 56-44 vote for Warren, but only if women and college students and the elderly like me get out to vote.

[MADem]

20. That idiot Mittsy was the carpetbagging governor here, don't forget.

He was a lousy governor, but some people go with the "all politics is local" POV. Still others are stupid and think that he will give us something if he wins. I will NOT assume that BHO will take MA without effort from all of us. It's just as easy for a nitwit to lead with the former governor and follow along with the nudie senator from the same damn lousy party.

I have to say, I resent it when Mittsy The Shittsy talks about "my state." He never says "Massachusetts." It's like he doesn't want to say, for fear of pissing of the teabaggers, the name of a state that sounds, to their ears, like "That Socialist Hellhole Full of Annoying Progressive Types." And he really isn't "from" here. He wasn't born here. He went to school here and he destroyed corporations all across the country from a base here--hardly anything to be proud of. He spent his spare time in Utah, at his ski chalet mansion where Utah gave him a HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION on his taxes. When he became governor, his security detail would be seen north of the border more often than within them. He's more at home in Utah or NH. All he ever did for MA is make a few real estate agents happy with his purchase and sale of a home in Belmont and the purchase of a home in the Vineyard, and he kept builders happy for a short while with the construction of that prison-like ugly-ass, hideous eyesore of a Mormon Temple in Belmont.

Anyway--I take nothing for granted. GOTV will be key. And if you don't think those hatemongering, wingnut talk show hosts--and we've got some real assholes, here--won't be GOTVing themselves, think again. And they've got a helluva platform, an audience of trapped commuters, five days a week.

[ReadingMD]

11. New Account Blogger: I'm a Warren supporter and want to be a delegate to Charlotte Nat Conv

Since I had to make a new account I had to make my candidacy known by attaching to a reply in this thread. I am asking registered Democrats(as of Feb 15th) in the 6th CD for their votes at a Caucus on April 21st at 10am at Peabody HS, 485 Lowell St. Here's the link from my recent comment at bluemassgroup.com introducing my candidacy. Hope some of you can make it and vote for me. I will be there early to shake hands and answer any question about me. Thanks, Donald Green MD, Reading, MA

[MADem]

12. I am not in the 6th, but here's a list of the towns and cities in that district for others reading

here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts's_6th_congressional_district

In Essex County:

The cities of: Amesbury, Beverly, Gloucester, Lynn, Newburyport, Peabody, and Salem
The towns of: Boxford, Danvers, Essex, Georgetown, Groveland, Hamilton, Ipswich, Lynnfield, Manchester, Marblehead, Merrimac, Middleton, Nahant, Newbury, North Andover, Rockport, Rowley, Salisbury, Saugus, Swampscott, Topsfield, Wenham, and West Newbury.

In Middlesex County:

The towns of: Bedford, Burlington, North Reading, Reading, Wakefield and Wilmington.

Good luck to you!

[ReadingMD]

13. Thanks

And thank you for posting the towns. With redistricting Billerica is also now included in the 6th CD in Middlesex County.

Would like to add. I collected signatures for Elizabeth Warren in N. Reading with some success. Her last total was 28,000 signatures with Scott Brown at 18,000.

[MADem]

14. Good for you! nt

[ReadingMD]

16. The 6th CD results

I was elected alternate delegate to the National Convention. It feels great. Will blog on wordpress.com under the address oetkb.wordpress.com. For those who are interested in the innards of the Convention I will try to give a bird's eye view.
Thanks to all who made this possible for me. Dr. Donald Green

[MADem]

17. You will enjoy the experience--I did it many, many years ago. It does feel great to be

a part of the process. Post a link to your exploits here, as well, when you update, to remind us!

[ReadingMD]

18. Here's the start of my blog

My exploits as an alternate delegate to the 2012 Democratic National Convention from the 6th CDstarts here: oetkb.wordpress.com
Tune in. I will try to be a regular blogger.

[MADem]

19. Cool! You can post excerpts here if you would like, too...

I've never seen such an odd link, without the WWW, but I cut/pasted yours and it got me there just fine.

I wonder how one would make that a live link so one could just click on it? Any computer experts know?

Anyway, your blog is very well done--lots of interesting detail.

Will you be travelling as a group to Charlotte or finding your own way down?

[ReadingMD]

21. Getting to Charlotte

We will traveling on our own but all delegates are guaranteed a room at the Omni. Really looking forward to hob nobbing with my fellow Democrats. Below is the direct link to my Convention blog.

http://oetkb.wordpress.com