Who would be the strongest Dem Senate candidate?

[RBInMaine]

I really like Chellie and would ideally like to see her take it, but the fear is that too many men wouldn't vote for her, especially in the second district. (Too bad, but possibly very true.) Whereas Mike Michaud gets strong crossover support both by gender and party, and I think would be stronger in the first district than would Chellie in the second district. Again, I really really like Chellie, but I like Mike too, and I tend to honestly think that speaking electorally and demographically, he'd be the strongest statewide D candidate. The real fear here is though if King and/or Cutler get in splitting the moderate vote and throwing the race to a RePuke. That would be a real tradgedy.

[eShirl]

1. Who is afraid "too many men" wouldn't vote for her, and why?

[RBInMaine]

6. See my reply below.

[Firebrand Gary]

2. They voted for Snowe/Collins??? n/t

[RBInMaine]

4. But Snowe/Collins are R's with a more moderate to conservative philosophy. It's not just the gen-

Last edited Thu Mar 1, 2012, 10:16 AM - Edit history (4)

der issue. It is the ideology factor combined with it. Remember, Chellie lost to Collins by a big margin for Senate once. Why? Because men voted for Collins on the ideology side. Chellie is a very liberal Democrat, which the R candidate and his corporate backers will attack relentlessly, and like it or not Maine is a moderate state on balance. I'm looking at the big picture. A very liberal Democratic woman is just not going to be as palatable STATEWIDE as a more moderate Democrat who appeals more broadly across both the gender and ideological spectrum. I'm just trying to be honest here and not saying we have a major gender bias problem in Maine, but just being realistic. It is an issue. Both gender and ideology are in the mix in elections. Part of why Collins and Snowe are successful is that Democratic women vote for them based on gender and that they are considered "moderate" enough so that they feel ok doing so. I hear it from them all the time. As well as from Indy women. But not as many Republican and Indy women would vote for Chellie due to the ideological factor. She will be painted as a "far left Move On.Org liberal". Look what happened to Libby Mitchell. She would not have beaten LePuke if it was a head to head race. She was considered too liberal, and Indies would have held their noses and given it to LePuke. In the first district, voters are going to support the Dem whether it is Mike or Chellie. In the second, Mike would do better than would Chellie. That's just the reality of the two districts. ** It depends, though, on who ultimately runs. If there are one or more male Indys like Cutler or King and no female Indys or R's, then Chellie would probably be stronger because she will get Dem and Indy women and enough Dem and liberal Indy men to put together the right coalition. If no Indies run and it is a straight D vs. R race, then Michaud is stronger. It's a tough one when you have two strong well-liked Dems and a state like Maine that likes to vote for Indys.

[MaineDem]

3. I feel the opposite

I think many women, especially in CD1 would NOT vote for Michaud. He's not pro-choice.

I like the guy personally but this has always been his biggest negative.

[RBInMaine]

5. He's very strong on women's issues overall though, and women voters are more sophisticated than

that and not single issue voters. He is personally "pro life" but not "anti choice." He is not for overturning Row v. Wade.