Good and bad polling news.

[progressoid]

Hubbell leads Reynolds in first poll on Iowa governor’s race

The first poll in the 2018 Iowa governor’s race shows Democrat Fred Hubbell leading Republican incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds. On Monday, Emerson College released polling data on the governor’s race, the races in all four Iowa Congressional districts and Iowan’s views of President Trump.

In the poll, conducted Sept. 6-8, Hubbell was the choice of 36 percent of voters, compared to 31 percent for Reynolds. Undecided voters made up 26 percent, and the remaining seven percent said they had decided to vote for a candidate other than the Democratic or Republican nominees.

“What’s interesting in this race is that Hubbell has a stronger favorability, or stronger popularity, in the state — 43 percent favorable to 22 percent unfavorable — while Reynolds is a bit more polarizing, 36 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable rating,” said Professor Spencer Kimball, who supervised the poll.

Results were split in the four Congressional districts. Democrats Abby Finkenauer, who is challenging Rep. Rod Blum in the 1st District, and Rep. Dave Loebsack, the incumbent in the 2nd District, are well ahead of their opponents. The same is true for Republican incumbent David Young, who represents the 3rd District, and Iowa’s most famous congressman, Steve King.

District 1. Abby Finkenauer: 43 percent; Rep. Rod Blum: 38 percent; Undecided: 12 percent

District 2. Rep. Dave Loebsack: 45 percent; Christopher Peters: 21 percent; Undecided: 28 percent

District 3. Rep. David Young: 47 percent; Cindy Axne: 31 percent; Undecided: 15 percent.

District 4. Rep. Steve King: 41 percent; J.D. Scholten: 31 percent; Undecided: 16 percent.

https://littlevillagemag.com/hubbell-leads-reynolds-in-first-poll-on-iowa-governors-race/

Damn. I thought Axne was doing better than that. Also some really high undecideds.

Time to hit the streets and GOTV!

[rurallib]

1. I saw that poll and just have a real question on its accuracy

from the article:
The poll was conducted using an automated Interactive Voice Response system of phone calls to landlines, as well as an online panel of voters. The poll in the governor’s race has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent. The congressional polls have margins of error of +/-6.4 percent, except for the King/Scholten race, which has a margin of error of +/-6.5.

The bolded just doesn't feel like a too accurate methodology. Don't stress out yet.

[progressoid]

2. That's reassuring.

Regardless, I'm still going to re-schedule my weekend to make room for some door knocking.

Axne has been hammered lately with lots of outside money ads. Time to fight back!