Nate Silver flips the projection on Donnelly

[caraher]

Before the Howey/DePauw poll came out Friday, he had a roughly 2/3 chance of a Mourdock win. Now he has Donnelly with a 68% chance of taking the seat!

[D23MIURG23]

1. Nice. I was hoping that would happen sooner or later. n/t

[caraher]

2. Just needed more recent polling data

I don't think any new polls will come in before the only one that really matters... nice to see just how much damage Mourdock inflicted on himself in the debate

[merrily]

3. Two pro-lifers, albeit one is somewhat less extreme than the other.

Very limited rejoicing.

[caraher]

4. On that one issue, yes

You really can flip a coin there; Donnelly just has the sense not to say stupid things about rape, and right there you have most of the difference on abortion between the two.

But this still would be a big win. One vote fewer in the Senate to mindlessly obstruct legislation in Obama's second term. One more vote to confirm any Supreme Court appointments in the next six year. And if you want to defend Roe v. Wade, every D in the Senate is critical. I can't imagine Donnelly taking a single-issue stand against an Obama nominee just to burnish his credentials as a centrist or pro-lifer.

Mourdock is such an idiot that he actually spent state taxpayer dollars fighting the auto bailout and the preservation of factory jobs in Indiana. He's the worst kind of teahadist, and he's so dangerous that I played Republican for a day to vote for Lugar in the open primary - my fear that he could actually take office was greater than my hope that we could pick up a seat, and most of the Democrats I know did the same. So my rejoicing is great and, I think, well-founded!

[plantwomyn]

5. Donnelly's arm CAN be twisted.

When he get's in we just have to stay on him and FORCE him to vote for Indiana instead of for his church. Once he gets out from under the shadow of the dome - Notre Dame - he may be easier to sway.