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Illinois' Population Is Falling, but the Sky Isn't
Census estimates in recent years point to a shrinking Illinois, but the severity of the drop gets overstated while attempts to blame it on high taxes get overblown.
Illinois hiked the state income tax rate by 66 percent in 2011 and three years later, according to revised census estimates, the state’s population had grown by more than 20,000. The tax rate dropped down again in 2015 and, since then, the census estimate has plunged 60,000.
There’s a popular and populist narrative afoot in Illinois that taxes are a root cause of a recent population swoon. But experts say a careful look at the data, both in Illinois and elsewhere, blow big holes in that notion.
“The kneejerk tax thing doesn’t work because you can find high-tax areas that are growing in the U.S. and you can find low-tax areas that are declining,” said Chicago demographer Rob Paral. “I know that gets lost on people who want to blame taxes on everything.”
Illinois hiked the state income tax rate by 66 percent in 2011 and three years later, according to revised census estimates, the state’s population had grown by more than 20,000. The tax rate dropped down again in 2015 and, since then, the census estimate has plunged 60,000.
There’s a popular and populist narrative afoot in Illinois that taxes are a root cause of a recent population swoon. But experts say a careful look at the data, both in Illinois and elsewhere, blow big holes in that notion.
“The kneejerk tax thing doesn’t work because you can find high-tax areas that are growing in the U.S. and you can find low-tax areas that are declining,” said Chicago demographer Rob Paral. “I know that gets lost on people who want to blame taxes on everything.”
https://www.bettergov.org/news/illinois-population-is-falling-but-the-sky-isn-t