Florida turns red: Can Democrats make a comeback?

[In It to Win It]

Florida turns red: Can Democrats make a comeback?

It was less than a day after the 2012 presidential election and Florida Republicans were already suffering from a particularly painful post-election hangover.

The state GOP had outspent the Florida Democratic Party by a 3-to-1 margin, while Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney had visited the state nearly 40 times — far more than then-President Barack Obama.

Yet Obama still came out on top, eking out a narrow 1-point victory that earned him Florida’s 29 electoral votes and helped propel him to a second term in the White House. The details of that win were even more alarming for Republicans.

Florida’s politically influential Cuban community, which had favored Republicans for decades, split its vote almost evenly between Romney and Obama, according to exit polling at the time. The GOP had even gone as far as to hold its 2012 national convention in Tampa in an effort to show its commitment to the state.

For Democrats, it was a momentous occasion; a show of how discipline, data and long-term organizing efforts could win over even the toughest and most expensive of battleground states.

“The feeling was that Democrats had picked the Republican lock on Florida,” recalled Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who helped Obama win the state in 2008 and 2012. “Almost like a video game cheat code.”

[Lovie777]

1. Yes......

[NCDem47]

2. If Wisconsin can claw back slowly...

So can Dems in Fla

[TheRealNorth]

3. One problem I see

All the Conservative and Boomers and X'rs retiring down there.

I just want to ensure when they move down there, they are not casting ballots in their original home state as well.

[snowybirdie]

6. Then, of course,

are all the retirees and old farts who marched in the 60s against the war back in the day.....

[TheRealNorth]

13. From some of the age/party affiliation data I have seen

It was pretty much only those that were 18-19 around 1968 and '69 that break a little blue. The rest of the boomers (and X'rs >50 ) break red.

[RKP5637]

7. I think it will be very difficult. Florida seems to have been named the epicenter

for MAGA. And the people loving that are flowing in. Florida has changed drastically.

[carpetbagger]

11. Well, it's up to everyone else, the state doesn't pick up on this stuff themselves.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/01/30/4th-resident-of-the-villages-admits-to-voting-twice-in-the-2020-election/

[awesomerwb1]

4. Tough one

Latinos are more conservative there, plus an endless supply of MAGA retirees. Maybe in a couple of generations.

[Biophilic]

5. Michigan clawed back, Wisconsin clawed backed.

But I admit Florida is pretty deeply wallowing the gop and fascist fantasy. However I have hopes the DeSantis has gone so deeply into the fascist quagmire that some people are going to take notice. We just need a decent spark.

[FloridaBlues]

8. I have lived here most of my life and very active in Dem party I don't see it turning around in any

Major way for years. Perhaps small victories but no major turnaround esp not 2024. I ran for the state house and it is an up hill battle. Obama win here was a Florida long ago too many red hats moved here since than.
But that won’t stop us from trying.

[BigmanPigman]

10. That seems like a realistic assessment to me.

You have my respect for continuing to fight the up hill battle. It will take a long time for this to turn around, I'm afraid.

[anciano]

9. Yes, Democrats can and will make a comeback!

Hope is alive and well. The tide will turn. "Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence" -- Pres. Calvin Coolidge

[carpetbagger]

12. Only with a superstar.

Shaq. Dwayne Wade. Grant Hill.

It starts there, and with any luck a few Dem terms will start to mitigate the damage.

It will likely remain a Republican-leaning state for the rest of my lifetime (I'm 53).