Florida - Early Voting Stats - Oct 22-23

[Roland99]

Oct 22

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#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots

Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/22 8:27am

Dems w/a COMMANDING lead in Vote-by-Mail (+550k)
Reps w/a small lead in-person early voting (+91k)

applied a 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation (was 47/43 in 2016)

I'm being more pessimistic on the split for no party affiliation voters than we saw in 2016. Even with that slightly pessimistic viewpoint, Dems could conceivably have a sizeable lead as of this morning of ~381,000 votes...so far. That's a lot of ground to makeup from in-person voting from republicans

In 2016, a total of 9,618,915 were cast. 2,758,617 were vote-by-mail and election day numbers were close to that at 2,959,085. Total early in-person votes in 2016 were 3,876,753 and about 24k provisional ballots.

FL has already blown past vote-by-mail returns this year with about 3,200,000

SOOO...ESTIMATED current split between Biden/trump is 52.9/44.0 (ignoring other candidates)!

[Roland99]

1. Oct 23

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#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots
Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/23 8:31am

Dems lead shrinks by about 46k votes

applied a Dem-pessimistic 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation
(was 47/43 Rep to Dem in 2016)

[Roland99]

7. Oct 24 - Reps gain another 50k from previous day.

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October 24 update

About another 50k vote increase for Reps from previous day (same as increase from Oct 22->23)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 283k vote lead

[Roland99]

8. Oct 25 - Reps gained another 31k

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Another increase for Reps from previous day but not as big (32k)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 251k vote lead

FL now at 5.7 million votes cast. All of 2016 early voting total was 6.6 million

[Roland99]

11. Oct 26 update - Growth in Rep votes slowing

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October 26 update

Another increase for Reps from previous day but growth slowing even more (16k)

Dems still hold an *apparent* 235k vote lead using a pessimistic splits for Independents

FL now over 6 million votes cast.

[Roland99]

12. Oct 27 update - big jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday

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Big increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold an *apparent* 174k vote lead using a pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem)

FL at ~6.4 million votes cast

[Roland99]

13. Oct 28 update - another sizeable jump for Rep in-person votes yesterday

Link to tweet

Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold *apparent* 106k vote lead using pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem).
190k lead w/2016 split

Almost 7 Million votes cast

[Roland99]

14. October 29 - Number of votes has slowed but Dem "lead" dissipating

Link to tweet

Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting

Dems still hold *apparent* 56k vote lead using pessimistic splits for Ind (50% Rep/40% Dem). 146k lead w/2016 split

Over 7 Million votes cast

[Roland99]

15. October 30 - ugh

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Using my pessimistic split, showing a virtual tie
Using 2016 split, Dems with an apparent 98k vote lead

[Roland99]

16. Happy Halloween! Oct 31 update

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Another increase for Reps from previous day for in-person voting. Still tightening

46k lead w/2016 split
116k lead w/49/49 split (leaving 2% for other candidates)

8.3 Million ballots cast

[Roland99]

17. I'll post an update tomorrow

My Twitter acct got a 7-day suspension today and I haven’t been on my computer today

[Roland99]

18. Nov 1 update

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20k or 94k Dem lead (24k using 2016 split, 94k using even split from independents)

[Roland99]

19. ***Nov 2 update***

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Dems increased ballots by 10k (first daily increase in a long time!)

2016 split (47/43) - Dems lead now by 30k!
49/49/2 split - Dems lead by 108k!

[kansasobama]

2. You are so good- I love your analysis

I look forward to it every day.

[Roland99]

4. thanks. I need to get back onto the covid tracking again, too.

I took a break from that for a while.

[Sherman A1]

3. K&R

Come On Florida! We need a big win for the Democrats.

[Thekaspervote]

5. For weeks I've been saying the repukes will not be able to surpass in 1 day what we did over weeks

And I have been totally and utterly shot down...guess we’ll see

[BComplex]

6. I wish those 1,111,612 democrat's mail in ballots not yet mailedwould get themselves to the mail box

Just sayin'!

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Down to about 927,000 as of Sunday

I think Florida looks okay. Miami-Dade today slightly surpassed Broward and Palm Beach in terms of percentage of turnout among registered voters, even though the mail return rate remains lower in Miami-Dade.

My rooting interest is getting the non-affiliated numbers as high as possible. That group will be a grind in our favor. We were never going to defeat Trump based on turnout or crossover votes. It has to be swing independents.

[Roland99]

10. Oh my!! Look at these breakdowns!!

Link to tweet

If u look at the cross tabs 4 the @YouGov polls from today, you'll find that of those who've already voted by party breakdown this is what you'll see (%):
NC:
Dem:B 100-0
Rep:T 89-8
Ind:B 57-34
GA:
Dem:B 99-0
Rep:T 94-6
Ind:B 54-42
FL:
Dem:B 99-1
Rep:T 87-12
Ind:B 56-40

That’s more than the inverse for Ind that I’m using which would mean a much higher lead for Biden to-date. I’m sticking with my pessimistic view just to keep me in a fighting mood for now