31 Dec: Footage: Russians Shoot Down Their Own Rockets - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 311: December 31

Today in the morning, British Intelligence issued a warning that the Russians will likely break their usual pattern of strikes in an effort to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population over the new year holiday period, and as it turned out, they were totally right. Around 3 hours later, the Russians, indeed, had launched their missiles.

This time the Russians primarily launched Caliber rockets from the warships in the Black Sea, and they also tapped into their stock in Astrakhan, near the Caspian Sea. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russians carried out a total of about 20 rocket launches. However, looking at the videos of launches and traces, one can count more than 20 rockets, and this is where it gets interesting once again.

The reason why only 20 rockets entered the territory of Ukraine is simple – Russian air defense seems to have shot down several rockets once again. Today, shortly after the rockets were launched from Astrakhan, the footage was released of how one rocket fell in the Volgograd region. The footage captured only burning grey fragments of the rockets. Given that no explosions were reported and that there is no shall crater on the ground, it means that the rocket was intercepted by Russian air defense and its remnants just fell on the ground without explosion.

A similar situation seems to have happened in Crimea. Here, the footage also captures how Russian air defense starts intercepting some objects. Some sources claim that Russian air defense is actually intercepting Ukrainian drones. There is a theory that the Ukrainians are launching their massive drone attacks simultaneously with Russian strikes in order to confuse the air defense system. However, even though at first glance it seems like a smart move, there are a lot of problems associated with the implementation of this plan.

Firstly, the Ukrainians need to know exactly from which base the Russians decided to launch their rockets this time. As you might have noticed, there is some sort of rotation process between the launch places, and they use a different combination of places each time. Secondly, the drones are much slower, so in order to the time it perfectly, the Ukrainian would need to know not only the exact place but also the exact time for which the launch has been planned. Thirdly, the operational altitude and speed differences are still large enough to tell the difference between the missiles and drones. Lastly, when the Ukrainians hit Crimea with drones, there was usually footage featuring them, which is quite easy to tell because they are loud. So, for these reasons, I am inclined to think that there was no simultaneous massive Ukrainian drone attack, and the Russians just have some internal problems with their air defense system.

In the meantime, some Ukrainian officials are also teasing the Russians with predictions that Moscow will spend the New Year in the dark. After the Ukrainians struck the Russian strategic airfield in the deep Russian rear two times, the Kremlin decided to take no chances. The Russians are reportedly boosting their air defense around Moscow and have already deployed around 2 thousand people just to monitor the sky during the New Year. The Russians have several circles of air defense around Moscow, which they recently reinforced even more.

First of all, such a high level of alertness might partially explain why the Russians are shooting down everything moving in the sky, including their own rockets. But apart from that, such a high concentration of air defense around Moscow inevitably means that Russian air defense has been compromised somewhere else. The paranoia over the security of Moscow may open the door for a lot of other opportunities for the Ukrainians, so we will see whether these opportunities will be identified and exploited.

[RKP5637]

1. Thanks for posting this!!! n/t

[TexasTowelie]

2. You're welcome.

It's great to have current news along with a transcript for those who can't listen to the video.

[RKP5637]

3. Yes! Also reading it is often far quicker than watching a video. n/t

[Irish_Dem]

5. Clever move by the Ukrainians. Force Putin to use many of his troops to protect Moscow.

Drawing them from other battle locations, leaving the path clear for Ukraine.

Also Zelensky is making Putin quite nervous and jumpy.

[RKP5637]

6. Zelensky and his officers, troops and all of Ukraine are very clever. It's refreshing and amazing

to follow.

[Irish_Dem]

10. Yes Ukraine military tactics are excellent.

Someday the Ukrainian military will be asked to speak at military academies the world over.

[2naSalit]

4. K&R

[Warpy]

7. OK, I'll admit it, I got a nasty giggle out of that one

Russian services and even the same services in different locations don't talk to each other, everything goes through the high command, which delays the fuck out of every bit of information and that means the Russians on the ground didn't know what the hell they were shooting at. Will they fix it? HELL NO, this is how their command structure has always (nor) worked, orders coming from the high command and hold fire orders issued later, when it's too late to hold their fire because this shit moves so fast.

This what they get with a social structure and military command that are both stuck in the seventeenth century.

Good, let them expend more energy chasing their own tails because they refused to modernize.

[Martin68]

8. The article seems to based largely on speculation, but I hope the theory is correct.

[getagrip_already]

9. I follow a few of these youtube personalities....

This guy is the farthest into the Ukrainian Kool aid of the bunch. But he is still worth listening to. Just realize a lot of what he says are rumors. Fun rumors though.

Denys dadrov is actually more careful of vetting info, but watching them gives you an idea what is new and interesting.