Iowa? Is It the Farmers?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

All of us are absolutely abuzz this morning about Kamala being up by 3-4 points in Iowa. And somewhat puzzled. Then I remembered something I posted about a couple of weeks ago: the Wisconsin Farm Bureau endorsed Tammy Baldwin for Senator, the first Dem they’ve endorsed in 20 years. The reason I gave was that Tammy has a great reputation in rural communities for helping farmers and actually understands the Farm Bill, which her opponent said he’d read... if he got elected...

But Iowa? Hmmmm...Oh yeah, one of the biggest EXPORTERS of grain and livestock in the country! (www.iowaeda.com/...) And if you follow that link, you’ll end up at a page at the Iowa Economic Development Association. And you’ll see how much ag stuff Iowa exports and how significant it is to the entire Iowa economy. And Trump’s tariffs, which instigated a trade war, damaged the Iowa economy. And another round of Trump tariffs would do the same thing: hurt the Iowa economy.

Oh — and you’ll see that two of their major buyers are China and Mexico.

If you go to states like Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, etc., you not only see huge farms, huge fields of crops, and huge grain and meat processing operations, but you see all of the small towns that dot the horizon, with small businesses that exist only because of the agricultural sector.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/3/2282099/-Iowa-Is-It-the-Farmers

[TwilightZone]

1. That wouldn't really explain why Trump was +18 before Biden left the race.

If the swing in Iowa is real, the factors are likely more recent. Harris and the way she has run her campaign. Concerns about abortion rights. Trump's bizarre past couple months. It's difficult to know for certain.

The announcement of further tariffs could be a factor, but Iowans never seemed to blame Trump for the prior tariffs' impact on the agricultural industry and Iowa's economy, so I'm not sure they would be swayed en masse by the possibility of more. I could certainly be wrong.

[JJ101]

2. Our former Governor

Is the current Sec of Agriculture and he and his wife have been campaigning. They understand the damage of tariffs on farmers.

[mobeau69]

3. Dobbs v Jackson WHO

[tulipsandroses]

4. This. Exactly this.Women are not going to take having their rights stripped away

I believe Selzer said, the increase is older female voters. Also that it’s a bigger pool of voters coming off sidelines vs people switching.
We are seeing the stories of women dying. We knew it would happen, but it’s staring us in the face now. It is not an abstract thought anymore.