A Democratic and a Republican Pollster Agree: This Is the Fault Line That Decides the Election.

[andym]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/opinion/gender-education-gap.html
By Celinda Lake and Amanda Iovino
Graphics by Quoctrung Bui
Celinda Lake is the president of Lake Research Partners and a pollster for the Democratic National Committee. Amanda Iovino is a pollster at WPA Intelligence and was the lead pollster for Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 campaign for governor of Virginia.

Oct. 30, 2024
--snip--
"We are truly looking at two different Americas when we dig into the views of men without college degrees and women with college degrees. They are at opposite ends of the spectrum politically and experience essentially separate economies, and therefore give priority to distinct sets of character traits and issues.

Let’s take a closer look. Women with college degrees, who are generally more financially secure than other women, name abortion as one of the key issues deciding their vote, while both women and men without degrees tend to focus more on issues affecting their day-to-day finances or safety. While inflation affects everyone, it hits non-college-educated voters who feel they are falling behind hardest, especially now that the unemployment rate has been rising among those with less than a high school diploma.

Our research indicates that economic issues matter deeply to many men without a college degree, who respond strongly to populist messages aimed at acknowledging their anxiety, sense of loss and resentment.

--snip--
[Article states that there are big differences in what these groups hear. Men more use X and Reddit, podcasts and YouTube personalities focusing on "gaming, sports and politics." Women tend to use TikTok, Instagram and Facebook and content about "personal growth, true crime and style."]

With the contrasts in priorities and worldview between these two groups, it makes sense that they would have different voting patterns, and the presence of a woman on the Democratic ticket has only accentuated that. Recent polling by the Pew Research Center shows non-college-educated men choosing Mr. Trump at a rate of 55 percent to 39 percent; college-educated women are nearly the inverse, favoring Ms. Harris by 61 percent to 34 percent. The gap may be even bigger by Election Day; it could be the largest in history."
--more at link--

[They present figures with these captions: "According to a recent poll by Pew research, the gender gap is 17 points, with Mr. Trump ahead 8 points among men and Ms. Harris up 9 points among women.
The gap by education is 29 points, with Mr. Trump ahead 10 points among people without a college degree and Ms. Harris ahead 19 points among those with one.
But broken up by gender and education, we see that the gaps are driven particularly by men without a college degree and women with a college degree, with an overall difference of 43 points."]
---------------
At least this analysis suggests why the election is polling so tightly-- gender and educational differences among the electorate.

[CousinIT]

1. Probably a true thing but I have a college-educated white male MAGAt in my family

and he is full of hate, fear, chest-beating, knuckle-dragging, misogyny, and grievance. He is doing well for himself and is a miserly old grouch. Like Trump. And that is who he will vote for.

[intrepidity]

2. Then why don't they hear what Musk says

Our research indicates that economic issues matter deeply to many men without a college degree,

about the extreme economic pain that will come with a Trump administration?

[andym]

3. They aren't hearing the message OR for some, they will be satisfied if they think others will suffer more

don't be surprised if anything they might consider negative is filtered by their sources or explained away that somehow in the long term they will benefit.

[CrispyQ]

4. Oh, Musk has already said that! There will be economic pain but we'll be better off when it's over.

What he means is there will be economic pain for us, while he & his fellow billionaires pillage the treasury & resources of the country & that they'll be better off when it's over.

[lees1975]

5. Given that women vote at rates 10% or more higher than men do overall, and college educated people voting at about

10% higher rates than non-college educated, that doesn't explain the tightness. It is evidence of a landslide toward Harris of almost 10 points.