'October Surprise' in U.S. Politics: Origins, Examples, Theory
Wiki. Edited. - October Surprise.
In the politics of the U.S., an October surprise is a news event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election (esp. one for the presidency), whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. Because the date for national elections (and many state & local elections) is in early Nov., events that take place in Oct. have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters and allow less time to take remedial action; thus, relatively last-minute news stories could either change the course of an election or reinforce the inevitable.
The term "October surprise" was coined by William Casey when he served as campaign manager of Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign.
However, there were October election-upending events that predated the coining of the term.
Prior to 1980, 19th century: In mid- Oct. 1840, shortly before the 1840 presidential election, federal prosecutors announced plans to charge top Whig Party officials with "most stupendous and atrocious fraud" for paying Pennsylvanians to cross state lines and vote for Whig candidates in New York during the 1838 elections. In 1844, an abolitionist newspaper published an article, purportedly based on a book titled Roorback's Tour Through the Southern and Western States in the Year 1836, implying that James K. Polk had his slaves branded.
On Oct. 20, 1880, shortly before the 1880 presidential election, a forged letter was published purportedly written by James A. Garfield voicing support for Chinese immigration to the U.S. At the time, most white Americans opposed Chinese immigration and both candidates were in favor of immigration restrictions. In the week leading up to the 1884 election, Republican nominee James G. Blaine attended a meeting in which Presbyterian preacher Samuel D. Burchard claimed that the Democrats were the party of "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion". Blaine's failure to object to Burchard's message cost him support from anti-prohibitionists, Roman Catholic immigrants, and southerners, playing a role in his narrow loss to Democratic candidate Grover Cleveland..
- 20th Century: In the weeks leading up to the 1920 presidential election, rumors circulated that Warren G. Harding was of African-American descent. Harding's campaign feared that the rumor would affect his popularity amongst white southerners and so his campaign made it a point to prove Harding's whiteness. Less than a month before the 1940 presidential election, President Roosevelt's press secretary Stephen Early kneed a black police officer in the groin outside Madison Square Garden. FDR had already been facing skepticism from black voters because of his failure to desegregate the military. The president responded days before the election by appointing the nation's first black general, Benjamin O. Davis Sr., and announcing the creation of the Tuskegee Airmen..
The Suez Crisis and Hungarian Revolution have both been described as October surprises during the 1956 presidential election... - Read More,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise
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- Wiki, Ed. - October Surprise Theory
1980 October Surprise theory refers to an allegation that representatives of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign made a secret deal with Iranian leaders to delay the release of American hostages until after the election between Reagan and President Jimmy Carter, the incumbent. The detention of 66 Americans in Iran, held hostage since November 4, 1979, was one of the leading national issues during 1980, and the alleged goal of the deal was to thwart Carter from pulling off an "October surprise".
Reagan won the election, and, on the day of his inauguration—minutes after he concluded his 20-minute inaugural address—the Islamic Republic of Iran announced the release of the hostages.
According to the allegation, on top of the Carter administration's agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets in U.S. banks in exchange for the release of the embassy hostages, the Reagan administration's practice of covertly supplying Iran with weapons via Israel likely originated as a further quid pro quo for having delayed the release until after Reagan's inauguration, setting a precedent for covert U.S.-Iran arms deals that would feature heavily in the subsequent Iran–Contra affair.
After 12 years of varying media attention, both houses of the United States Congress held separate inquiries and concluded that credible evidence supporting the allegation was absent or insufficient. Nevertheless, several individuals—most notably, former Iranian President Abulhassan Banisadr, former Lieutenant Governor of Texas Ben Barnes, former naval intelligence officer and U.S. National Security Council member Gary Sick, and Barbara Honegger, a former campaign staffer and White House analyst for Reagan and his successor, George H. W. Bush—have stood by the allegation. - Background: Main article: Iran hostage crisis... - More,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_October_Surprise_theory
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- CNN, 'How the Phrase 'October Surprise' Entered the Political Lexicon,' Oct. 2, 2020,
Political pundits have pointed to several events in the last month – even the last week – as the much-anticipated “October surprise.” With President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, analysts say this may be the most shocking development yet of this election cycle.
In political jargon, an “October surprise” refers to a game-changing event that can irreparably damage one candidate’s chances and boost the other’s. It can come in the form of a calculated political attack – still a “surprise” to the public and the candidate it’s brought against – or something unplanned that can critically change the course of an election. But as the examples below show, such events don’t always necessarily alter an election’s outcome...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/politics/october-surprise-what-is-trnd/index.html