"The Vance effect among independents is negative": How Trump's running mate is a drag on the ticket

[marmar]

"The Vance effect among independents is negative": How Trump's running mate is a drag on the ticket
Pollster finds nearly a quarter of independent voters are less likely to support Trump because of Sen. JD Vance

By Chauncey DeVega
Senior Writer
Published August 19, 2024 5:45AM (EDT)


(Salon) Over the last few weeks, the political ground has been moving under the feet of the American people (and the world). We “the Americans” are still trying to regain our balance and make sense of it all. In a turn of events that one would likely not believe if they saw it in a movie or TV show or read it in a book, in rapid succession President Biden was soundly defeated by Donald Trump in what would be their first and only debate. Trump then survived an assassination attempt and was coronated as a type of god-king by the Republicans at their national convention. Several days later, President Biden stepped aside and passed the torch for his party in the 2024 election to Vice President Kamala Harris. Donald Trump was winning in the polls by such a margin that a landslide victory in November was looking more likely than not. Now, matters have changed dramatically, and in such an extreme way that it is now Trump and the Republicans who are lagging behind Harris and the Democrats.

....(snip)....

In an attempt to go beyond the too-much-discussed “vibes” about the current state of the 2024 election and what may happen next, I recently spoke with Mike Kulisheck. He is Managing Director of BSG, a consulting and strategic research firm that worked as Barack Obama's pollster during the 2012 presidential campaign.

....(snip)....

What do we actually know about JD Vance and Tim Walz and how the public is responding to them?

.....The base voters approve of the VP nominees: 77% of Republicans approve of JD Vance and 78% of Democrats approve of Tim Walz. Independents, however, disapprove of Trump choosing Vance by 40% to 32% approve. At the same time, they approve of Harris choosing Walz by 39% to 23% disapprove.

Few voters cast ballots for president based on the VP, but it can matter on the margins. Walz is a net positive for Harris among independents, with 20% saying Walz being on the ticket makes them more likely to vote for Harris and 16% less likely. The Vance effect among independents is negative. Just 13% of independents say Vance makes them more likely to vote for Trump and 23% say he makes them less likely to vote for Trump. Two-thirds of independents say that Walz and Vance don’t really affect their vote either way. ........................(more)

https://www.salon.com/2024/08/19/the-vance-effect-among-independents-is-negative-how-running-mate-is-a-drag-on-the-ticket/

[karynnj]

1. I would imagine that Trump's age and health, might mean who he chose is more important

So in addition to Walz being the far better choice, the more Vance becomes a negative - something he is a natural at - the more people might balk at voting for Trump knowing he could become President. When Vance becomes less net favorable among independents than Trump, that could become a factor.