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Mister Nightowl

(396 posts) Sat Oct 25, 2014, 06:08 PM Oct 2014

Poll Shows Dem With Unexpectedly Huge Lead In Key Senate Race

Source: TPM

By Dylan Scott Published October 25, 2014, 10:18 AM EDT

An Anchorage polling firm is giving Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) an unexpectedly huge lead in his re-election bid less than two weeks before Election Day and with early voting underway.

Hellenthal and Associates shows Begich up 10 points over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, 49 percent to 39 percent. It is by far the biggest lead that Begich has seen and runs counter to most public polling, which has shown Sullivan with a consistent advantage since mid-September.

Another poll released Friday and sponsored by Democratic PAC's supporting Begich showed the race tied at 44 percent.

Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/alaska-senate-poll-hellenthal-associates-oct-24

Sorry to be a killjoy, but I suspect this poll to be an outlier. The Dem PAC poll is almost certainly closer to the truth.

9 replies

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Poll Shows Dem With Unexpectedly Huge Lead In Key Senate Race (Original Post) Mister Nightowl Oct 2014 OP

Take any and all polls from Alaska with a huge grain of salt. BlueEye Oct 2014 #1

Dems are campaigning hard in native villages Drahthaardogs Oct 2014 #4

That's what I heard the DSCC director say in an interview davidpdx Oct 2014 #8

It's going to be a squeaker, for sure, and I'm praying Mark pulls it off. raven mad Oct 2014 #2

Huge outlyer pscot Oct 2014 #3

Welcome to DU...just in time for the midterms. Huh elias49 Oct 2014 #5

There is absolutely no reason for Begich to be thrown out of office. ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2014 #6

hope its intent isnt iamthebandfanman Oct 2014 #7

Look at the MOE on that thing--it's HUGE! MADem Oct 2014 #9

BlueEye

(449 posts)

1. Take any and all polls from Alaska with a huge grain of salt.

Reply to Mister Nightowl (Original post)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 06:30 PM

Oct 2014

Although I do suspect this race to be close, no matter who is leading.

Drahthaardogs

(6,843 posts)

4. Dems are campaigning hard in native villages

Reply to BlueEye (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 07:26 PM

Oct 2014

There could be surprises coming.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)

8. That's what I heard the DSCC director say in an interview

Reply to Drahthaardogs (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 09:52 PM

Oct 2014

as well. I'm not sure what the voting history in terms of percentages is, but if they were able to get high GOTV in the native villages that could help tremendously.

raven mad

(4,940 posts)

2. It's going to be a squeaker, for sure, and I'm praying Mark pulls it off.

Reply to Mister Nightowl (Original post)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 07:12 PM

Oct 2014

Sullivan is a stooge of the Koch Brothers and the Rove machine. I am, however, in the reddest part of a very red state, seeing a LOT of support for Begich.