Egypt interim leader offers Brotherhood roles

[another_liberal]

Source: Al Jazeera

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamist Nour Party will be offered ministerial positions in the transitional government, officials have said, hours after the appointment of a new prime minister. Hazem el-Beblawi, a liberal economist and former finance minister, was named the new prime minister, the presidential spokesman, Ahmed al-Muslimani, said. Liberal opposition chief and Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei was named vice president for foreign relations, Muslimani said on Tuesday.

The appointments were followed by an announcement that ministerial posts in the new government will be offered to members of the Freedom and Justice Party, the Muslim Brotherhood's political arm, and to the hardline Islamist Nour Party. State media quoted a presidential spokesman as saying: "There is no objection at all to including members of those two parties in the government."

The Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, is refusing to recognise the caretaker president or any of his decisions.

Shortly after the Islamist parties made their statements, Egypt's army chief went on state media to say that the military will not accept political "maneuvering". Defense Minister Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said that "the future of the nation is too important and sacred for maneuvers or hindrance, whatever the justifications".

Read more: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137914354306499.html

---

No "political maneuvering" or "hindrance" will be allowed? I guess that means if the army's President wants you in the government, you have no choice but to be in the damn government?

That is definitely "enhanced" democracy!

[David__77]

1. MB will set up its own demise.

They will likely reject this offer and continue with their campaign for the reversal of the coup. I can see why they would do that, but think it's unwise. Better to grab a sliver of power and ensure there ends up being no widespread move to reban MB. For my part, I think offering MB anything was a stupid move on the part of the generals, unless they are absolutely sure it will be turned down.

[delrem]

3. MB party was democratically elected.

This doesn't please the US, and the US has acted. But that it was a democratic election, very well supervised, cannot be denied.

[David__77]

4. Absolutely true that it was elected. But the US wasn't opposed.

In fact, I think that the US very much was displeased with this coup.

[delrem]

6. Then you didn't listen to Hillary R. Clinton.

eta: I mean, when HRC explained, in plainest text, that Mubarak wasn't really a dictator, because Mubarak was a cherished family friend.

Do you honestly think that the Egyptian military, more or less unchanged since Mubarak's deposition, could've/would've mounted this coup without permission of the USA?

[another_liberal]

9. Very good point.

We were in on the coup, at least we gave the go-ahead. With a billion three hundred million in direct military aid at stake, the generals would not have acted without our OK.

[happyslug]

2. Why????

When a Coup takes place, the Coup plotters make sure they control all means of Communications, the use of Force (i.e. the Army) and the Government.

Due the planning for the Gulf War, the US war gamed the the Gulf War and the Generals assigned to "fight" as the Iraqi Army fought at least one game where they won. The key was communications. Instead of using radios and phones (Both can be jammed and were in the actual invasion) they used speakers from Minarets, motorcycles and small ships to defeat the American Attack.

I mention Minarets and motorcycle for they still remain viable communications systems. Are they as good as Radio and Telephones? No, but effective enough to get messages around and Minarets have been used for that propose for centuries and Motorcycles just replaced horses, which also have been used for centuries for the same purpose.

This leaves two possibility for this offer, one it is for Western Consumption to show the Coup plotters are "reasonable" by showing they made this offer (while knowing the Moslem Brotherhood will refuse it) or they are serious for they fear a popular revolt FOR DEMOCRACY organized by the Moslem Brotherhood. i.e. they do NOT trust they enlisted ranks to stay in ranks if the Moslem Brotherhood do a the Moslem Brotherhood being able to produce massive Protests against the Government. Protests that maybe able to free Morsi and re-install him as President (remember this is what happen to Chavez in Venezuela, through Chavez's support in Venezuela was wider the Morsi support in Egypt).

The real key is what will the Salafist al-Nour party do? They appear to have supported the Coup, but are they having Second thoughts? They are the second largest party in Egypt, behind the Moslem Brotherhood and are even more Fundamentalist Islamic then the Moslem Brotherhood.

Remember in the election, the Moslem Brotherhood was #1, the Salafist al-Nour was a close, but distinct second. Combined they received over 50% of the vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nour_Party

It is the closest party in Egypt tied in with the Wahhabism, which bin Laden was a follower of.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salafi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism

If anything this group is MORE Radical Islamic then the Moslem Brotherhood.


They are even less tolerate of Shiites and Christians then the Moslem Brotherhood (and woman's issues is clearly NOT on their agenda)

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/502/32/Muslim%20Brothers%20and%20Salafis.aspx

Thus, is the Army worried about its Troops (not the officer Corp, but the enlisted ranks)? Do they fear that people will abandon Al-Nour in favor of the Moslem Brotherhood do to the fact the Brotherhood won the election and now the opposition is using FORCE to undo those results? Are people willing to give Morsi time to fix the economy AND not return to rule by the Army that wrecked the Economy? These are big fears, and if the Army has them, may explain the offer. i.e. an attempt to form a coalition government.

The problem is the Moslem Brotherhood sees no advantages to joining with the Army. If the Moslem Brotherhood joins and the Economy improves, the Moslem Brotherhood gets no benefit, if the economy goes down hill further, it gets part of the blame. The best solution is to stay out and wait, like the Brotherhood has been doing since the 1950s.

Now, the problem with Egypt is the general overall economy has gone down hill AND its subsidy of flour has been a huge bill to the Government. Actual Defense spending is moderate, for most US Aid is in the form of US Military Equipment. What Egypt actually spends on Defense appears to be stolen by the Generals for they own benefit and Morsi efforts to cut that down seems to be what brought on the coup.

The Army took up the rage caused by the Economic Collapse, and whats to channel it against the Brotherhood, but most people know who caused this mess and it was coup leaders and they desire NOT to take a hit due to the economy. And given the restrictions Morsi worked under (and he had several) he was doing a decent job fixing the economy, but by going after people with money.

Morsi down side was the Constitution forbade confiscation of property. In many ways, given how much economic control the top .1 % of the population has in Egypt, I do not think anyone can solve the problem without some sort of confiscation, of at least land. At the same time any leader has to keep US grain coming in and subsidized, or a real economic disaster will occur. Fear of being Shot, does not stop starving people from revolting. Thus without US Aid grain, any Government of Egypt is doomed.

The problem for Egypt is US bio-fuel program. This has lead to former Wheat growers to shift to Corn. Thus the US has less surplus Wheat to ship to Egypt. Two years ago, Russia had a real severe heat wave that killed a lot of Russian Wheat production, enough that Putin forbade exporting of Wheat to keep flour and bread prices down in Russia. The side affect of this was a jump in world wide wheat prices and the subsequent Arab Spring. The last two years has seen Russia return to a more normal wheat crop and thus able to export wheat, but this has been more then off set by US Farmers shifting from Wheat to Corn.

Thus Egypt is facing a huge price in food over the last three to four years. It is this increase in food prices that has lead to the unrest. No one is predicting any huge reduction in food prices over the next few years thus continued unrest will be the rule (prices will go up and down, but within the range it has been the last few years).

Egypt produces a lot of its own food, but it is not enough to feed its own people. Due to the nature of land ownership in Egypt, most of the increase in Food Prices has been taken up by landlords of rural farmers (common in the third world, thus the demand for land reform, return the land to the peasants who actually work the land, not the technical owners of the land) NOT the rural farmers. Thus poverty is worse in Rural Egypt then Urban Egypt.

On the other hand, the increase in Food Prices has caused the cost of living to raise even in Urban areas, increasing unrest as people have to cut back spending, while their landlords want increase rents to help them pay for the increase price of food.

You need someone who has popular support to do changes large segments of the population do not want. Mosri and the Moslem Brotherhood was rapidly building up such popular support, and the people who were going to get hurt (the Army's generals) organized the coup to prevent the reforms. The problem with Egypt is everyone knows what is needed to be done, but such reforms will hurt the top .1% the most, but also will hurt the next 30-40% of the population who tend to be the middle men in the economy, the professionals, Professors, Teachers Doctors, Lawyers, Foreman, Middle Management. Such middle management gets they income from acting for the top 1% and are caught in the middle when the working poor hits what is called the "Iron rule of Wages" i.e the point where workers will REVOLT rather then take further pay cuts for if they took further pay cuts they can NOT pay for what they need to survive (i,e, food and housing).

Egypt seems to be in a bind. The lowest 60% of the population can NOT take any more cuts in income due to the increases in the price of bread. At the same time no one else wants to take the cut, but the cut is needed for the economy has declined. Thus the unrest. The Petty Middle Class, those below the top 10% of the Economy, but above the bottom 60% do NOT want to take a pay cut, but the bottom 60% had hits its limit as to pay cuts. At the same time the top 10% (and especially the top. 1%) are REFUSING to take the needed cut. Something has to give. Either the Working Class will revolt (this time lead by the Moslem Brotherhood) or the Petty Middle Class will demand "Reforms" that brings in Fascism (Control of the Working Class via a dictatorship, but any decline in income comes from the Working Class not the Petty Middle Class OR the top 10%).

As I said, it is still to early to see how Egypt will go, the coup was just the latest move in the crisis of Egypt. I suspect the Moslem Brotherhood knows roughly the above and acting accordingly. i.e. it will get the Working Class behind it AND the army will try to form up a Fascist government with a outward appearance of being a Democracy (Hitler technically did this, Germany was a Democracy all during the Third Reich, his powers were voted for by the people every four years, 1934, 1938 and 1942).

Side note: While I said the Moslem Brotherhood will try to get the Working Class behind it, I do NOT mean the Moslem Brotherhood wants to impose Communism on Egypt, but that the Brotherhood will use the Working Class to get back into power, and the Working Class will support them for no one else is looking out for their interests at the present time.

[Comrade Grumpy]

5. That's mighty white o' them generals.

Giving the parties that dominated the electorate a chance to play minor roles in their nifty new military democracy.

[jakeXT]

7. Has the IMF won?

Hazem el-Beblawi, a liberal economist and former finance minister, was named the new prime minister, the presidential spokesman, Ahmed al-Muslimani, said. Liberal opposition chief and Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei was named vice president for foreign relations, Muslimani said on Tuesday.

Just a few days ago ElBaradei stressed the importance of the IMF loan, which will further turn the screws on Egyptians and please international and, in particular, Gulf capital. No doubt some Arab investors support the Nour Party and are urging it to support the technocratic government. In an interview with Reuters at his Cairo villa, ElBaradei said: "Success or failure is now on the altar of political consensus, because if you don't have consensus, you don't have stability. Without stability, you don't have an economy going on, and without an economy going on, you will end up with hungry, angry people. The economy is bust. All of the economic indicators. If you look at GDP, inflation, foreign reserves, current account, national debt, it's all in the red. It's a very precarious situation. Everyone is waiting now for the IMF. That is clear."

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/14956169-hazem-elbeblawi-a-liberal-economist-named-egyptian-interim-prime-minister

Egypt should refuse a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund rather than submit to terms that would further impoverish the poor and could spark a revolution of the hungry, leftist leader Hamdeen Sabahi said on Monday.

Sabahi, 58, who came third in a presidential election last year after the 2011 uprising that toppled autocratic President Hosni Mubarak, told Reuters that neither the global lender nor Egypt's Islamist-led government had told the public the truth about austerity conditions attached to the proposed loan.

The firebrand leader of the Popular Current movement met an IMF team that visited Cairo this month for talks which ended without an agreement partly due to a lack of political consensus to support the accompanying economic reform program.

Asked whether he would agree to the IMF's conditions, Sabahi said: "No. I would not agree to them."

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2013/04/30/Leftist-leader-says-Egypt-should-refuse-4-8bn-IMF-loan.html

[another_liberal]

8. Everyone has a price they say.

I guess the Egyptian military's price for selling their people down the river is about 4.8 billion (plus something like eight or nine billion more the Gulf Kingdoms and the Saudi King have promised). That will ease the pain of losing their country's independence and freedom to govern itself, at least it will for the guys at the top of the pile.

The IMF will get one more captive nation to add to its growing collection. The mega-bankers must be very proud of themselves indeed. Perhaps soon all the people of the World will just take it for granted that their governments will be dictated to by IMF plutocrats on ever matter of any fiscal importance?