Speaker Johnson's historically narrow House majority shrinks even further

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNN Politics

Updated 1:36 PM EST, Mon January 20, 2025



Washington CNN — Speaker Mike Johnson’s historically narrow majority just shrunk even further, creating a major challenge for congressional Republicans as they seek to enact President Donald Trump’s agenda. At the start of the 119th Congress, Johnson was already facing the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.

The margin is now even smaller after Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican, resigned from the House on Monday to serve as Trump’s national security adviser, a role that does not require Senate confirmation. That brings the partisan breakdown to 218 Republicans and 215 Democrats, one of the thinnest House majorities in history. And the margin is soon expected to shrink even further.

Trump has named GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York as his pick for US ambassador to the United Nations, a role that is subject to Senate confirmation. If Stefanik is confirmed as expected, Republicans’ House majority would drop down to 217 to 215.

At that point, House Republicans would not be able to afford a single defection to pass legislation along party lines until the vacancies are filled.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/politics/narrow-house-majority-congress-dg/index.html

[Frasier Balzov]

1. And hasn't Mike Turner said

that any legislation Johnson brings to floor won't have his vote?

That's probably just a fit of pique though.

[3catwoman3]

10. He did say that, according to some things I've read.

It's an "I'll believe it when I see it" thing for me right now. Let's hope he really means it.

[rpannier]

20. Did he say he'd vote 'No' or just not vote for it

Not voting for it still passes by 1 I think

[Frasier Balzov]

21. Good parliamentary point.

[FakeNoose]

2. Whipping votes for the Democratic side should be easier now

Let's get to work!

[LNM]

3. Any chance of a Dem winning those open seats?

Or am I only hoping?

[GreenWave]

5. I still hope too, but I guess repug governors can go with the temp hire.

[brush]

7. Has to be a special election to replace them. Govs appoint Senators not Reps.

[Polybius]

11. No

They are in heavily Republican districts.

[Wiz Imp]

13. Not much chance. Maybe an extremely remote chance in Stefanik's seat (seat was held by a

Democrat until 2014). Waltz and Gaetz seats in Florida? Next to no chance. But it will take months until the special elections happen and they will be vacant until then.

[ck4829]

4. Nice

[brush]

6. It'll be a while before special elections to replace the rethug reps, and a rethug may not win them.

Trouble in paradise for Johnson and trump already starting.

[Fla Dem]

8. I just pray all our Dem Reps stay healthy and there is no cause for even one to resign.

We may survive this. Although Stefanik's resignation isn't a sure thing yet.

[ck4829]

9. I'm afraid the party is going to "keep the powder dry" to the extreme though

"A Republican resigned? Well, I guess one of us should resign too... just to keep things fair and in order."

[area51]

12. So you're saying

Johnson is suffering from shrinkage? I'll see myself out now.

[generalbetrayus]

16. Are you going to be here all week?

I'll be sure to tip my waitress.

[TheRickles]

14. Who will be their Manchin?

[iemanja]

32. Fetterman (senate)

[TheRickles]

33. I was hoping that there might be one Repub Congressperson who leans centrist,

and who might be willing to hold up Repub bills until they are more compromised and centrist, because he or she has the key swing vote in this evenly split House. The same way that Manchin (and Sinema) forced so many concessions and watering down of bills from Biden before he would agree to support them.

Fetterman looks like he'll be another Dem version of Manchin.

[iemanja]

34. The ones who vote against the GOP

Are the deficit hawks, tea party types.

[TheRickles]

36. Good point. Hope it works out that way.

[generalbetrayus]

15. Maybe Orange Julius Caesar should delay nominating Stefanik to the UN.

Doesn't Melanoma speak five languages?

[PortTack]

17. Add this to mike Turner being dropped from his position of chair of intelligence because he supported Ukraine

I understand he’s furious….we’ll see. Hopefully he’ll be another cog in the wheel

[niyad]

18. 218 to 215 is 433. Where are the other two?

[BumRushDaShow]

19. If they were all there

the GOP would have had 220 at the start of the 119th Congress, but Gaetz is gone (resigned during the 118th Congress) and Waltz would be stepping down, taking them down to 218.

Once Stefanik goes (and she probably will as she and Rubio are probably the least foaming-at-the-mouth loon of those named for appointments), then they will be down to 217 until the special elections kick in. I *think* DeSatan was supposed to have a Gaetz special election process starting this month (being lazy but I think it was going to be the 28th for the "primary" for that).

[niyad]

22. Thank you. Sometimes it is hard to keep up.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. Oh I know the feeling...

Especially because it took so long after this election to get the final tallies in for a couple seats and when all was said and done, the GOP actually had a net loss of 1 seat + we had already picked up the Santos seat in a special election (and retained it this past election), so that moved us from the "213" that we had at the beginning of the 118th Congress, to "215" at the beginning of the 119th Congress.

[cstanleytech]

24. Hmm maybe we'll get lucky and 3 or 4 of the Republican ones will piss Putin off and fall from buildings.

[niyad]

25. Starting with moses mike

[rpannier]

29. The guy from KY (Massie?) that AIPAC doesn't like will likely be a problem for Republicans

I think Trump also opposed him in the primary

[Historic NY]

26. Talk about shrinkage

who is left on the nearly dead list

[rpannier]

30. I think the average age for the House is about 60

So, probably 20+
Gerry Connolly is like 76 and has throat cancer -- and he's the Democrat chair for the House Oversight Committee

Hal Rodgers (KY) at 84 is the oldest Republican, 3rd oldest House member, and one of twelve House members over 80; the only other Republican on the list is John Carter-TX
22 Republicans are 70-9. If my count is right, there are 62 House members between the ages of 70-79

That is a lot of members 70+

[paleotn]

27. Cold out there........shrinkage.

The House dynamics will be interesting. Even after the special elections, it will still be tight, with a whole bunch of R's in very iffy districts for 2026....and the backlash. Vote carefully. Or should I say, damned if they do, damned if they don't. Wouldn't want to be them.

[OrlandoDem2]

28. I want us to launch a serious campaign for those seats. Door to door retail politics.

We MUST start trying to turn red districts purple or blue!

Let’s roll up our sleeves and get after it!

[Wiz Imp]

31. The 2 Florida Special Elections are both scheduled for April 1.

The margins of victory in those 2 districts in November were +32 & +33.

For Gaetz seat, the Democratic nominee will be Gay Valimont who lost in November. No Democrat has won this district since 1996 and the closest race was 2020 with a margin of 30%. Gaetz won by 32% in November even with all his baggage. Sure they should fight for it, but basically no chance of winning here.

For Waltz seat, the Democratic nominee will be Josh Weil or Gus Selmont (Selmont lost a Congressional bid in 2018). This District has not elected a Democrat since 1986 and the closest race was in 2018 with a 12% margin and the next closest was in 2016 at 18%. Same as Gaetz seat, fight but almost no shot at winning.

[Autumn]

35. Not a problem. Some Dems are reaching out for bipartisanship. He will be fluffed.