U.N. says only a 'quantum leap' can keep global climate goals within reach

[OKIsItJustMe]

Source: Washington Post

U.N. says only a ‘quantum leap’ can keep global climate goals within reach
The report comes as nations will need to update their pledges for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a time when the world is on course to blow past all targets for limiting warming.

By Chico Harlan
October 24, 2024 at 10:00 a.m. EDT

If there’s any way that countries might avert planetary catastrophe, they haven’t yet laid out the details explaining how.

But nations will need to update their pledges for reducing greenhouse gas emissions next year, detailing the steps they will take over the coming decade. And a United Nations report released Thursday said that nothing short of a “quantum leap in ambition” will suffice at a time when the world is on course to blow past all targets for limiting warming.

That’s the core message of this year’s U.N. Emissions Gap report — a definitive, annual assessment of the planet’s trajectory — which tries to take stock of both the planet’s future warming given policies in place, and the additional steps that would be necessary to meet climate goals. This year’s report reads like a pep talk for world leaders and policymakers who’ve made a tough task vanishingly more difficult by allowing greenhouse gas emissions to continue to rise; by so far setting national goals that are insufficient; and by not fulfilling even those pledges.

“Another year passing with no action means we’re worse off,” said Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor.

…

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/10/24/global-warming-countries-un/

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https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

[Moostache]

1. Embrace the horror.

Humanity and its greed and ability to allow itself to believe the insane and refute the rational has signed a collective death sentence on life form's bigger than a toaster oven by 2150 or sooner, depending on how resilient mankind's sane minority is and how many feedback loops interact and amplify each other.

We have had decades to act and spent them all refuting stupidity, pretending that insane greed was equal to cold hard fact. We allowed people to pretend that what was clearly happening was actually happening slower than it was, or that it was not real or that if it were real there is no solution anyway, so live out your days and fuck the future.

Well, we're about ready to have our collective ass kicked by the bill. Time's up, Accounts must be settled. Billions - with a "B" - are going to die in the resource wars and privation on the horizon... and into this dangerous soup, MILLIONS of Americans are seriously going to suggest with their votes that it would be a good idea to reinstall a hateful, ignorant moron...a bigoted fool obsessed with himself and no one else... a racist, misogynistic, bombastic clown back at the wheel as the car skids and enters an unrecoverable spin.

To say I have little hope is kind.

[Redleg]

2. Maybe the genius Elon Musk and others like him should focus on this

instead of spending all their time campaigning for Trump, ruining Twitter, and trying to go to Mars. I am only half joking. It seems to me that the so-called free market should have encouraged firms to work on real solutions to this problem but I forgot that many of the advances in science and technology were fueled by government funded research.

The oil companies, knowing for many years that fossil fuels, a limited resource, would be harder and more costly to exploit, and also being aware of the impact of fossil fuel combustion on the environment and climate, were uniquely positioned to divert some of their ample resources to the development of sustainable energy but mainly failed to do so.

[callous taoboy]

5. I've been contemplating that re: Musk, especially lately-

Why, why can’t this soon-to-be trillionaire be one of the good guys?

[Redleg]

11. I wonder how many of the most wealthy people truly are "good guys"

I know that some of them engage in philanthropic activities after they have made their billions, but wonder how many of them were "good guys" from the start.

[OKIsItJustMe]

13. The philanthropy of the rich has tended to be less than the philanthropy of the poor (as a percentage of income)

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 02:30 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/almanac/who-gives-most-to-charity/

(Mind you, that’s as percentage of income, not of “disposable income.” The income of the rich is almost all “disposable income.” While almost none of the income of the poor is “disposable.”)

I hold back from laughing when I hear about some impossibly rich person who has promised to give 90% of their fortune away to charity when they die. Even if they give away 90% of their fortune while they’re alive, that still leaves them with 10% of an incomprehensible fortune. Imagine if Laurene Powell Jobs (Steve Jobs’ widow) had to “get by” on a mere $157,000,000/year!

Ben & Jerry’s once had a truly progressive salary policy. The CEO could make at most, 5 times his lowest paid worker. When “Ben” retired, they couldn’t find a new CEO who would be willing to work for such paltry wages, so the policy was changed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/occupy-wall-street-why-ben-jerrys-endorsement-rings-hollow/

However, even now, how many companies have a similar attitude toward their employees?

[Redleg]

15. Good points. I guess after death is better than never.

It is true that on average, the wealthy give less to charity than middle and lower income earners. They also feel more entitled to free stuff, even though they could afford to pay.

Many of them would rather see the social safety net and Social Security fail than to pay a bit more in taxes.

To answer your question- very few companies have executive compensation policies similar to the old Ben & Jerry's. Hell, many CEOs even get huge golden parachutes when they get fired for doing a lousy job.

[DSandra]

27. A lot of philanthropy is a sham

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Elon Musk doesn't think climate change is a threat

https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-elon-musk-interviews-donald-trump/?singlepage=1

…

ELON MUSK: I want to say something about, like, you know, maybe my views on climate change and oil and gas, because I think it’s probably different from what most people would assume, because my views are actually pretty, I think, moderate in this regard, which is that I don’t think we should vilify the oil and gas industry and the people that have worked very hard in those industries to provide the necessary energy to support the economy. And if we were to stop using oil and gas right now, we would all be starving and the economy would collapse.

So it’s you know, I don’t think it’s right to sort of vilify the oil and gas industry. And the world has a certain demand for oil and gas, and it’s probably better if the United States provides that than some other countries. And it would help with prosperity in the US. And at the same time, obviously, my view is, is like, we do over time want to move to a sustainable energy economy, because eventually you do run out of I mean, you run out of oil and gas.

Climate Change Concerns
ELON MUSK: It’s not there. It’s not infinite. And there is some risk. I think it’s not the risk is not as as high as, you know, a lot of people say it is with respect to global warming.

But I think if you just keep increasing the cost of a million in the atmosphere long enough, eventually, it actually simply gets uncomfortable to breathe, people don’t realize this. If you go, if you go past 1000 parts per million of CO2, you start getting headaches and nausea. And so we’re now in the sort of 400 range, we’re adding, I think, about roughly two parts per million per year. So I mean, still gives us what it means, like, we still have quite a bit of time.

…

[Redleg]

8. But for some reason we just have to get to Mars.

I thought Elon sold himself and Tesla as a company that cared about making sustainable cars for the average income person. Was he just being cynical? That's a rhetorical question. He also sold himself as a defender of free speech and we know what he has done with Twitter.

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. Giving the devil his due

He apparently believes that fossil fuels will run out.

… we do over time want to move to a sustainable energy economy, because eventually you do run out of I mean, you run out of oil and gas.

Go back a decade or so and there were essentially 3 mass market EV’s, each dealing with the high cost of batteries in a different way:

1. The Nissan LEAF™: It had an affordable price, with a relatively short range, good enough for the vast majority day-to-day driving.
2. The Chevy Volt™: It too had a relatively small battery, with a good-enough range, but added a “range extender” (a gasoline engine which would “kick in” when the battery got too low.) Naturally the “range extender” added to the price, and GM lost money on every one they sold.
3. The Tesla Model S™: It had a much larger battery pack, giving it much greater range, and a much higher price, to “justify” that, “high-end” features were added, definitely not for “average income person.” When people complained about the price, Tesla fans would compare it to other high-priced cars.

When the price wars hit recently, Tesla cut their prices dramatically, without going broke. (It must be that they had a high "profit margin." Right?) He had no interest in selling affordable cars, and specifically said that Tesla would leave that to GM & Ford.

My assumption for some time was that Elon’s great desire to go to Mars was because he had run the numbers on the climate, and decided Earth was doomed, so, naturally he wanted to “escape" to Mars. Here’s a question I ask people, “Elon really wants to go to Mars, right⁉️ OK, so, unlike the other space billionaires, Elon has a rocket which (almost routinely) carries passengers into Low Earth Orbit. Even to the Space Station. Right? So, if he’s so hot on space travel, why hasn't he (unlike the others) taken a ride on his own rocket? Apparently, he’s not keen on space travel, he’s specifically keen on going to Mars.”

Since realizing that he does not understand the urgency of fighting “Climate Change” I decided he must have a different motivation. We have observed that he does not feel that he should be bound by laws, anyone’s laws. Whether it’s following the “Lockdowns” during the worst of COVID-19, environmental regulations, FAA regulations, labor laws…

He didn’t like that Twitter blocked his lies. So, he bought Twitter (a horrible business decision) but, now he’s king of Twitter, and can make his own rules.

So, now, I have come to believe he wants to become “King of Mars” where he can treat his serfs however he pleases, not bound by Earth’s laws.

[Redleg]

14. I think you are right that Musk wants to rule without constraints

and how dare we serfs question his intentions, actions, or right-to-rule. This is the most troubling aspect of Musk and some of the other ultra-wealthy self-proclaimed libertarians. They really are authoritarians at heart, hearkening back to an imagined time when kings ruled as they wished and all institutions and people served the king rather than the other way around. They see themselves as supremely gifted and therefore most deserving of kingship. Hell, one of these clowns (I forget his name) has advocated for an American Caesar. That is some scary stuff.

[masmdu]

3. Here is a quantum leap in CO2 capture just announced yesterday

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-10-23/this-powder-can-remove-as-much-co2-from-the-air-as-a-tree

https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/10/23/capturing-carbon-from-the-air-just-got-easier/

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Magic pixie dust

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=177236

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. We don't have time to waste waiting for magic pixie dust!

At this point, climate scientists agree that we need Carbon Capture, but that is in addition to drastic cuts in emissions (not instead of them.)

The "average american” (per capita) is currently responsible for 14 tons of CO₂/year.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-annual-greenhouse-gas-index

Climate Change: Annual greenhouse gas index
BY REBECCA LINDSEY REVIEWED BY STEPHEN MONTZKA AND JAMES BUTLER
PUBLISHED JUNE 17, 2022

Among the most basic questions about global warming is how much are human-produced greenhouse gases influencing the climate today compared to the past? To answer this question, NOAA developed the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index ("AGGI" for short). Updated yearly, the AGGI calculates the combined warming influence of the most important long-lived greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous dioxide, and a number of industrial chemicals used in cooling and refrigeration, aerosol sprays, and other processes. The total direct heating influence in a given year is compared to conditions in 1990—the year that countries who signed the U.N. Kyoto Protocol agreed to use as a benchmark for their efforts to reduce emissions.

…

By the end of 2022, NOAA reported that the AGGI was 1.49, meaning the direct warming influence of human-produced greenhouse gases had risen 49 percent since 1990. Most of the warming influence (64 percent) is due to carbon dioxide. Methane is the second-largest contributor (19 percent). The third-largest contributor is the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) category (8.1 percent). (CFCs were widely used in cooling systems and aerosol sprays in the mid-1900s, before we realized they damaged the ozone layer. These substances and their replacements are now regulated under the Montreal Protocol, but they are extremely long-lived in the atmosphere, so they continue to play a role in Earth's heating imbalance.)




This graph shows the heating influence caused by the major human-produced greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (gray), methane (dark purple), nitrous oxide (medium purple), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs, lavender), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs, blue), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs, light blue). Relative to conditions in 1750, today's atmosphere absorbs more than 3 extra watts of energy per square meter of Earth's surface. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from NOAA Global Monitoring Lab. For the complete list of chemicals in the CFC, HFC, and HCFC groups, see Figure 3 in the Full AGGI Report.Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from NOAA ESRL.

…

To put things into perspective, in 1988, James Hansen warned Congress that Global Warming was now a scientific certainty. Since that time, the rate of global heating has increased by half. It will not decrease even if we end all emissions tomorrow. That heating is due to the gases already in the atmosphere.

[EarthFirst]

9. In a world of right wing politics: good fucking luck... nt

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Someone at the UN has a dark sense of humor

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 03:52 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Maybe a video game will sell it

[OKIsItJustMe]

17. Reuters: Climate change: UN report says planet to warm by 3.1 C without greater action

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-set-warm-by-31-c-without-greater-action-un-report-warns-2024-10-24/

Climate change: UN report says planet to warm by 3.1 C without greater action
By Gloria Dickie
October 24, 2024 5:44 PM EDT

Summary

• Current policies could lead to 3.1 C warming by 2100
• Nations to discuss updated emissions strategies at COP29 in Azerbaijan
• 1.5 C target likely out of reach without climate overshoot

TORONTO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Current climate policies will result in global warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report on Thursday, more than twice the rise agreed to nearly a decade ago.

The annual Emissions Gap report, which takes stock of countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, finds the world faces as much as 3.1 C (5.6 F) of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if governments do not take greater action on slashing planet-warming emissions.

Governments in 2015 signed up to the Paris Agreement and a cap of 1.5 C (2.7 F) warming to prevent a cascade of dangerous impacts.

"We're teetering on a planetary tight rope," U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a speech on Thursday. "Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster".

…

[LudwigPastorius]

18. "U.N. says only a 'quantum leap' can keep global climate goals within reach"

Yeah. That ain't going to happen.

Say "bye-bye" to Atlantic City, Miami, Charleston, and New Orleans. (not to mention Bangkok, Amsterdam, Ho Chi Minh City, Manila, and Venice)

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. I wish people wouldn't make such a big deal about flooded cities

It is a big deal, but Climate Change will have even worse consequences!

[Mosby]

19. China is producing 35-40% of the worlds CO2.

From 2013 to 2021, 59.1 percent of the world's increase in pollution has come from India.

Russia's per capita emissions are among the highest in the world, 53% higher than China and 79% higher than the European Union

We know what the future is going to be, it's time to stop pretending the US and EU are going to somehow magically fix climate change.

[OKIsItJustMe]

20. How China Became the World's Leader on Renewable Energy

https://e360.yale.edu/features/china-renewable-energy

How China Became the World’s Leader on Renewable Energy
China has achieved stunning growth in its installed renewable capacity over the last two decades, far outpacing the rest of the world. But to end its continued dependence on fossil fuels, it must now move ahead with planned reforms to its national electricity system.
BY ISABEL HILTON • MARCH 13, 2024

Last November, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry shook hands on a pledge to triple renewable energy globally by 2030. It was hailed as a welcome revival of climate cooperation between the world’s biggest and second-biggest emitters of greenhouse gases and offered hope that the two veteran climate negotiators had found a way through a blizzard of negative diplomatic exchanges to keep alive the prospects for greater global ambition on tackling climate change.

In one key sector essential to that ambition, however, the Chinese government can argue, with some justification, that it is China, not the United States, that is in the lead. In a world in which national climate targets are being missed, the speed and scale of expansion in China’s installed renewable capacity is unmatched.

In 2020, for example, China pledged to reach 1,200 gigawatts of renewables capacity by 2030, more than double its capacity at that time. At its present pace, it will meet that target by 2025, and could boast as much as 1,000 gigawatts of solar power alone by the end of 2026, an achievement that would make a substantial contribution to the 11,000 gigawatts of installed renewable capacity that the world needs to meet the 2030 targets of the Paris Agreement. Fossil fuels now make up less than half of China’s total installed generation capacity, a dramatic reduction from a decade ago when fossil fuels accounted for two-thirds of its power capacity.

When the International Energy Authority issued its assessment of the pledge to triple renewables globally by 2030, it pointed out that the 50 percent increase in global renewable installations in 2023 was largely driven by China. In 2022, China installed roughly as much solar photovoltaic capacity as the rest of the world combined, then went on in 2023 to double new solar installations, increase new wind capacity by 66 percent, and almost quadruple additions of energy storage.

…

If only the USofA were doing as well as China…

[OKIsItJustMe]

21. CNN: The US led on nuclear fusion for decades. Now China is in position to win the race

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/climate/nuclear-fusion-clean-energy-china-us/index.html

The US led on nuclear fusion for decades. Now China is in position to win the race
By Angela Dewan and Ella Nilsen, CNN
Published 4:00 AM EDT, Thu September 19, 2024

CNN
—
The bustling city of Shanghai marks national celebrations with world-famous light shows, illuminating its skyscrapers with dazzling colors, like beacons of Chinese innovation.

It is here that scientists and engineers work around the clock to pursue the next big thing in global tech, from 6G internet and advanced AI to next-generation robotics. It’s also here, on an unassuming downtown street, a small start-up called Energy Singularity is working on something extraordinary: nuclear fusion energy.

US companies and industry experts are worried America is losing its decades-long lead in the race to master this near-limitless form of clean energy, as new fusion companies sprout across China, and Beijing outspends DC.

Nuclear fusion, the process that powers the sun and other stars, is painstakingly finicky to replicate on Earth. Many countries have achieved fusion reactions, but sustaining them for long enough to use in the real world remains elusive.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. Reuters: China starts up world's first fourth-generation nuclear reactor

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-starts-up-worlds-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-reactor-2023-12-06/

China starts up world's first fourth-generation nuclear reactor
By Colleen Howe
December 8, 2023 4:57 AM EST

BEIJING, Dec 6 (Reuters) - (This Dec. 6 story has been corrected to change the timing and reason for NuScale's plant termination in paragraph 5)

China has started commercial operations at a new generation nuclear reactor that is the first of its kind in the world, state media said on Wednesday.

Compared with previous reactors, the fourth generation Shidaowan plant in China's northern Shandong province is designed to use fuel more efficiently and improve its economics, safety and environmental footprint as China turns to nuclear power to try to meet carbon emissions goals.

Xinhua news agency also said the 200 megawatt (MW) high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor (HTGCR) plant developed jointly by state-run utility Huaneng, Tsinghua University and China National Nuclear Corporation, uses a modular design.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

23. China is rapidly taking global renewable capacity expansion to another level

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2024/electricity#abstract

…
China is rapidly taking global renewable capacity expansion to another level

Over 2024-2030, China is expected to install 3 207 GW of new renewable electricity capacity, more than tripling growth of 2017-2023. Since 2015, China’s share in global annual capacity additions has been increasing and is expected to reach almost 60% in 2030. At the end of the forecast period, the country is expected to have at least half of the world’s cumulative renewable electricity capacity, doubling its share of the last decade. The Chinese government’s Net Zero by 2060 target, supported by incentives under the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), and the ample availability of locally manufactured equipment and low-cost financing, stimulate the country’s renewable power expansion over the forecast period.

The European Union remains the second-largest growth market after China, with annual additions continuing to increase through 2030 at a faster pace than before. Member countries recently submitted their draft national plans to achieve the new overall EU target. For renewable electricity, their ambitions are in line with the overall EU goal, but they lack ambition for other sectors, including transport, industry and buildings. Renewable energy auctions, corporate PPAs and incentives stimulating distributed solar PV will continue to spur capacity growth in the next six years, doubling the bloc’s previous achievements.

…

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/renewable-electricity-capacity-growth-by-country-region-main-case-2017-2030


China already has more renewables than the USofA will have in 2030.

[OKIsItJustMe]

25. Reuters: US power system becomes more fossil-dependent than China's

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-system-becomes-more-fossil-dependent-than-chinas-maguire-2024-10-25/

US power system becomes more fossil-dependent than China's
By Gavin Maguire
October 25, 2024 1:13 PM EDT

Commentary
By Gavin Maguire

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Utilities in the United States have relied on fossil fuels to generate a larger share of electricity than their counterparts in China since June, seriously undermining U.S. claims to be a leader in energy transition efforts.

U.S. utilities have relied on fossil fuels to generate an average of 62.4% of total electricity production for the past four months, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

That fossil fuel share exceeds the 60.5% over the same period in China, the world's largest power producer and polluter.


China vs USA share of electricity generation from clean & fossil fuels

The high U.S. fossil dependence came during the summer when domestic power demand is highest due to air conditioner use, while China's relatively lower fossil reliance has occurred during a protracted economic slowdown.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

26. "...it's time to stop pretending the US and EU are going to somehow magically fix climate change."

You know what?

The US and EU cannot "fix climate change."
With 100% participation, we cannot “fix climate change."
But the US can damn the world all by ourselves.