WHO sounds the alarm: New COVID variant is most transmissible yet

[riversedge]

Source: abc




XBB.1.5 currently makes up 75% of new COVID-19 cases in the Northeast.
By Youri Benadjaoud January 5, 2023



The World Health Organization is warning that a new omicron subvariant known as XBB.1.5 is the most transmissible strain to date.

As COVID-19 hospitalizations rise in some parts of the Northeast -- where the subvariant makes up about 75% of new cases, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- so are concerns about how to mitigate a potential surge following large holiday gatherings.

In the past few years, the post-holiday rise in COVID numbers was typically attributed to large gatherings and the colder weather bringing people indoors. Experts said it remains to be seen how much XBB.1.5 may be contributing to the most recent rise in hospitalizations.
MORE: Will the US plan for testing travelers from China help stem the spread of COVID?


"We don't fully know what this variant is doing in the population, especially since every time a new variant emerges it's not happening in a bubble … so it's very difficult to tease apart what might be driving, for instance, increases in hospitalizations," said Dr. John Brownstein, an ABC News contributor and chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital.......................

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/siounds-alarm-new-covid-variant-transmissible/story?id=96236451

[AZLD4Candidate]

1. Transmissible, but how it is with severity and lethality?

[NullTuples]

2. More transmissible but lower severity & lethality equals more deaths & ruined bodies overall

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-why-being-more-transmissible-rather-than-more-deadly-isnt-good-news-152863

tl;dr -

"With a variant that is 30% more deadly, the same number of infections will occur, but they will lead to 1,300 deaths. Yet with a variant that is 30% more transmissible but not more deadly, because cases will grow exponentially, the eventual death toll over the same period stretches to over 4,200. The longer this goes on for, the bigger the death toll discrepancy between the more transmissible and the more deadly strain becomes."

[iluvtennis]

3. Very helpful info - thank you for posting. n/t

[Lucky Luciano]

4. There is a limit to the exponential growth though.

Eventually the population gets saturated (ie all get infected) which will flatline the growth. I doubt their model covered that. At worst, I have to imagine, we go from 50% (made up number) being infected to 100% (absolute worst case obviously). So at worst, twice as many deaths instead of 4.2x as many. Double is still probably an absolute worst and not strictly likely.

[Ford_Prefect]

5. It is a mistake to measure the damage of COVID primarily by how many die. The increase in long

COVID, the frequency of reinfection, along with the overall effects on public health, the economy, and health providers is the measure we need to pay attention to.

It has been a misapprehension from day one that COVID only bites once, and that immunity follows the way it does from FLU. This is a far more damaging and pernicious virus than anything we have had before. It can affect more parts of the body at the same time than Flu or Pneumonia. Its effects on the body during and after are profound, and in some cases life-long. It can damage the heart, lungs, circulation, nervous system, brain, liver, and muscle tissue; sometimes several aspects at once. It poses a severe threat to anyone whose immunity or system is compromised, not for death but for permanent disability.

This isn't close to being over, either. It continues to mutate especially among those who haven't been inoculated or whose immunization isn't current enough.

[Marthe48]

13. I know of at least 5 people who had Covid 2xor more

They are all younger than me, healthy, active. If anyone wonders why I stay home, or mask if I go in places, that's why. If the crazies would come to their senses and mask, fewer people would sicken and die.

[FBaggins]

8. Not necessarily

30% more transmissible (with the same severity) is mathematically deadlier than 30% "more deadly" with the same level of transmissibility. But the normal trend is for viruses to become more transmissible and less deadly. 30% more transmissible and 50% less deadly does not result in more deaths overall.

The timeline bears this out fairly well - as the CDC's excess death measurement has been quite low over the last ten months or so compared to the rest of the pandemic.

[Happy Hoosier]

10. The math isn't so deterministic.

Colds are EXTREMELY transmissable but very low lethality. Colds are just a fact of life and we don;t lose our heads over them.

COVID is not a cold, of course. Right now it can be much more severe. But for many people it isn't. If the severity drops while transmissability increases, the total death count isn't necessarily going to rise. The know, we need actual data, of course.

[womanofthehills]

6. Warning from Yale Professor doing long Covid study

Because it clings better to ACE 2 receptors- not good. These receptors also determine blood pressure so damage by the virus to these cells might also interfere with blood pressure regulations

Link to tweet

?s=46&t=qK8nf5alTgrFMugRr7dN6Q

[Aussie105]

7. Folks, you are watching Evolution in progress.

A virus that kills quickly has a poor chance of multiplying and finding new hosts.

A virus that kills its host slowly, or not at all, or inhabits a host without the host knowing - well, that strain will spread wide and far.

End evolutionary product?

A virus that everyone carries, not many knowing it, a virus that just shortens the life of the old and infirm, and some of the very young with immature immune systems, or the slightly older youngsters not vaccinated.

It's happened before. The flu was once a killer, now it's common and usually not fatal.

All those vaccinations you got as a child? They were to protect you against those viruses in your environment.

[Farmer-Rick]

9. I have never caught COVID

And I've tested several times through several scares.

I know of 1 instance where I definitely was exposed for a short time to someone with COVID, but my tests results were negative.

Are there many people left who have not been to infected?

[Happy Hoosier]

11. Same.

I should clarify I've never tested POSITIVE for COVID. I think there is a good chance that many of us with no positive (everyone in my immediate family) have had it at some point, but never had sufficient viral load to test positive. Vaccines for the win.

[Farmer-Rick]

12. Yeah, good point

I never tested positive for COVID.

Some folks I know who have caught it still have heart and lung problems. It can age you overnight.

[Happy Hoosier]

15. Yup....

Fortunately, everyone I know who has had it was fully vaxxed and came out of it pretty well and fairly quickly. But I've heard the stories...

[TxGuitar]

17. Neither my wife or myself

have ever had Covid- and one daughter/son-in-law never infected. Other daughter and son-in-law had it one time- he had a coworker who came to work with it. We have had 4 shots in total- waiting for me to get over a bad cold and then we will get a booster.

[IronLionZion]

14. The northeast is more vaccinated and boosted

The bivalent booster should protect against Omicron variants.

It might be worse when these new variants hit less vaccinated areas.

[republianmushroom]

16. One may want to take this seriously and mask up. Just saying

I have and screw those that don't