The Kremlin blinks first in the geo-economic war over Ukraine

[AZLD4Candidate]

Source: MSN

The ongoing geo-economic conflict between Russia and the West is a complicated one, surrounded by nearly as much disinformation and misinformation as the war in Ukraine itself. As such, both parties are confidently claiming to have the upper hand. But looking at the evidence at hand objectively, it becomes clear that the Kremlin is in retreat.

On April 29, Russia’s finance ministry announced that it would pay some $650m to foreign creditors on two overdue Eurobonds. And by making the payments before the bonds’ grace period expired on May 4, the Kremlin has avoided falling into sovereign default.

On the surface, this may look like a win for Russia. But in reality, the move was an embarrassing one for Vladimir Putin.

Ahead of the bond’s formal maturity on April 4, the Kremlin announced that it would buy back the bonds in roubles – and pay those who refused to accept the rouble buy-back as well. Nearly 75 percent of bondholders (almost certainly all domestic) agreed to the new terms .

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-kremlin-blinks-first-in-the-geo-economic-war-over-ukraine/ar-AAWX2mx?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8bcbf8cb003d4a3e84ea63396b5a73c6

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We're in a staring contest, and the other fella just blink - quote from the Cuban Missile Crisis

[RKP5637]

1. As the sanctions wear on, it's going to drain the Kremlin. Also, how much more are the oligarchs

going to stand for Putin's fetish war. And, eventually, the Russian citizens will probably get over their euphoria with war and start to wonder what is going on with his needless and endless war as their cupboards go bare and their finances sink, and the dead and wounded return.

[Ford_Prefect]

2. Seems like there's a law not unto Putin after all.

[Lonestarblue]

3. The West needs to add more sanctions. I think Russia's central bank still uses SWIFT.

Waiting to levy more sanctions seems useless at this pint because pressure on Putin needs to come from within as well as without. The Russian economy needs to suffer enough to get people there outraged at Putin for a needless, stupid war.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. "I think Russia's central bank still uses SWIFT."

The EU is working on that because they are the ones most impacted.

May 5, 20224:41 AM EDT
Last Updated 13 hours ago

Explainer: Disconnecting Russia's banks: Sberbank faces SWIFT removal

By Kirstin Ridley and Karin Strohecker



LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The European Union aims to cut off Sberbank (SBER.MM), Russia's largest lender, from the SWIFT international payment system as Western allies seek to further isolate Moscow from financial markets over its war in Ukraine. The latest proposal forms part of the EU's sixth and toughest round of sanctions, which also includes an embargo on crude oil in six months. The measures still have to be approved by the governments of the 27 member states.

The EU had previously spared Sberbank from what is seen as the harshest measure because it, along with Gazprombank, is one of the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas, which EU countries have been buying despite the conflict in Ukraine. The latest step could mark a watershed for the EU, which remains reliant on Russian oil and gas as energy prices surge. The EU's executive Commission on Wednesday proposed to cut Sberbank and two other Russian banks - named by two EU sources as Credit Bank of Moscow (CBOM.MM) and the Russian Agricultural Bank - from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).

(snip)

In early March the EU named seven banks it would bar from SWIFT: Russia's second-largest bank VTB (VTBR.MM) along with Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank (PSKBI.MM), Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank and VEB. read more However, lenders handling energy payments were spared. Britain sanctioned another wave of Russia's banks in late March, including Gazprombank and Alfa Bank.

After Ukrainian and U.S. officials accused Moscow of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha near the capital Kyiv in early April, the United States also slapped Russian banks with a fresh round of sanctions. Those measures saw Sberbank, which holds one-third of Russia's total banking assets, and Alfa Bank, the country's fourth largest financial institution, subject to "full blocking sanctions" that would freeze all their assets "touching the U.S financial system," the White House said at the time.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/disconnecting-russias-banks-sberbank-faces-swift-removal-2022-05-05/

[TomWilm]

5. Quote from the Cuban Missile Crisis is from before the full story was told ...

... Given America’s powerful nuclear superiority, as well as the deployment of the Jupiter missiles, Moscow suspected that Washington viewed a nuclear first strike as an attractive option. They were right to be suspicious. The archives reveal that in fact the Kennedy administration had strongly considered this option during the Berlin crisis in 1961.

... Kennedy’s deployment of the Jupiter missiles “was a key reason for Khrushchev’s decision to send nuclear missiles to Cuba.” Khrushchev reportedly made that decision in May 1962, declaring to a confidant that the Americans “have surrounded us with bases on all sides” and that missiles in Cuba would help to counter an “intolerable provocation.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/the-real-cuban-missile-crisis/309190/

And then Kennedy blinked first. The opening of previously classified archives revealed that the crisis was indeed resolved by a concealed deal to remove the US Jupiter missiles in return for the removal of the Cuban ones.

Robert Kennedy, whom the president assigned to work out the secret swap with the U.S.S.R., insisted on this secrecy, explaining that publicity about it “could cause irreparable harm to my political career in the future.”

- Dubious Secrets of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb457/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/26/still-secret-after-all-these-years/

[speak easy]

6. Except the 15 SM-78 Jupiter missiles in Turkey were deployed in 1959

and the Kennedy Administration cancelled a planned deployment of 15 more.

[TomWilm]

7. And?

[speak easy]

8. So ..." Kennedy's deployment of the Jupiter missiles "was a key reason for Khrushchev's

decision to send nuclear missiles to Cuba.” Just ain't so.

Because the missiles had been there since '59 and the Kennedy Administration canned further deployment. That sort of sloppiness brings the whole analysis into question.

The narative ... 'Kennedy put missiles in Turkey, so Khrushchev retaliated is Cuba' is wrong.

Khrushchev was aware of the Jupiter missiles in Turkey in '59 ... doh. Missiles were the No.1 item for the summits planned between Ike and Khrushchev before the U2 Spyplane incident over Russia blew up.

So yeah RFK would have wanted to keep the Jupiter withdrawal under wraps , but not because 'we put em in and fucked up', but to head off the usual 'soft on communism' bit.

[TomWilm]

9. I still do not see why this should change much?

At that time all missiles were extremely unstable cause of the liquid propellant and all, so they were not a good choice for standing at alert. But they were still there on the ground in Turkey, and were meant to stay until better ones were invented. On top lots of political backslash with Turkey, cause they were being forced to host them.

The Turkey missiles was planned and put there after the failure in 1955 of the UN disarmament negotiations. The Russians did not like to have them so close, so they gave Kennedy a taste of this. Then Castro got way too enthusiastic, and wanted even more - but now both withdraw their pieces. You are welcome to your view, but I do not spot any sloppiness.

[speak easy]

10. Because the reason for putting nukes in Cuba was not to give Kennedy

a taste of having nasties nearby, but to dissuade the U.S. from invading Cuba. It was never, 'if we put missiles win Cuba, we can force NATO to take theirs out of Turkey (and Italy)'. If the Kennedy Administration bore some blame for the crisis, it was going forward with the Bay of Pigs, not Ike's missiles in Turkey.

Taking out the unstable SM-78 Jupiters in Turkey gave Khrushchev an opportunity to save face, because the second part of the deal, an undertaking by the United States not to invade Cuba, gave the Soviet Military exactly nothing tangible.

[TomWilm]

11. Finally a sentence I can agree on ...

... that the deal gave Khrushchev an opportunity to save face.

There undoubtedly was many very different reasons for the Cuban Crisis, and not just one.