U.S. Economic Data Surprising Forecasters

[Purveyor]

U.S. economic data are outperforming expectations by the most in nine months, a trend Federal Reserve officials may incorporate into their policy statement tomorrow.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, a daily measure of whether economic data is better or worse than economists’ projections, improved to 85.7 on Dec. 2, the highest since March 9, after the Labor Department reported an unexpected drop in the jobless rate. The index is calculated on a three-month rolling basis and weighted for the importance of the indicator.

“Most of the economists are missing the underlying strength” in the world’s largest economy, said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. The Fed will “modestly upgrade the economic outlook but change little else.”

November unemployment at the lowest level in more than two years and manufacturing running at the fastest pace in five months are among data that may dissuade Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow central bankers from pursuing a third-round of large scale asset purchases. At the same time, the Fed may still see “significant downside risks” for the economy as Europe’s financial crisis evolves.

MORE...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-12/forecasters-miss-by-most-in-nine-months-amid-improving-u-s-data-economy.html

[DCBob]

1. Remarkably the US economic situation seems to be on the rise..

while most of the rest of the planet is in decline.

[Purveyor]

2. We need this to continue in this direction. Scarying the hell out of the GOP, indeed! eom

[DCBob]

3. alot of folks on the left dont like it either.

It takes away from their narative that Obama and America are a failure and only a revolution will fix things.

[Purveyor]

4. Oh I know. I've read their snarky replies to positive economic news I've posted since

since President Obama took office.

Oddly, they were no were to be seen when I posted unfavorable econ news while the little dictator bush was in office.

[DCBob]

5. Yes indeed. Where the F were these people when the Bush/Cheney regime was screwing the country?

I was ready for revolution back then but not now.

[ixion]

6. So Citibank says all is well...

Gee, that's comforting.

This is the same Citibank, of course, who believe that the bottom 90% DOESN'T EXIST, from a statistical perspective.

[unkachuck]

7. "U.S. economic data are outperforming expectations..."

....this is excellent news as long as it's correct....I like to watch the 'misery index' around my neighborhood....you know, talk to friends and neighbors, how many cars in factory parking lots, how new are those cars, mid-day attendance at box-stores and malls, even the density of traffic down my street, etc....

....or this could be timed to excuse away any further necessity for unemployment extensions, SS or Medicare increases, political debate on the economy or other assistance to struggling people....

....I'll believe improvement when I see and feel it....

[sendero]

8. I'm interested in real numbers..

... compared to last month, last quarter, maybe last year. I'm totally uninterested in numbers that are compared to "expectations" because a titanic full of these "economists' couldn't find their asses with both hands and a map.

First they said there would be no recession. Then they said it would last 12-18 months. Now when are fixing to zig they say zag. Honestly, these "expectations' are no metric of any value whatsoever.

[Hydra]

9. I want to see the solid numbers too

All too often, they cheer and then a week later we get an "Oops! It's actually worse than we thought!" article.

[BR_Parkway]

10. So the economists are even surprised when they miscalculate their "suprise index"? I want a job

where I can be so consistently wrong about everything and still have people paying good
money for what I have to say and leading newspapers rushing to quote me.

[Earth_First]

11. The "Citicorp" Index?

I've read all I need to know...