Gallup Partisanship Poll: What It Could Mean
For the last 3 quarters, Republicans have had a 9 or 10 point deficit in partisanship including independent leaners despite having a lead of 4% in the 3rd quarter of 2024, significantly more than the 2024 election results. It beats the 2018 edge for Democrats which was around 6%.
This is the publicly shown page which does not show the quarterly (but other news on Twitter has been circulating it): https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
It is too early to say confidently, but I think this time is different because of how badly Trump is messing things up, and how his approval rating is lower than Biden's was, or his own first term. This is a part of how Democrats have been outperforming in many special elections, and why the New Jersey governor election was a significantly larger victory than party registration data suggests and part of why Virginia was such a blowout. (Democrats typically underperform party registration spreads in New Jersey.)
If we are undergoing a realignment where enough voters (mostly independent and moderate dentifying Republican voters) abandon the GOP, it would usher in a new era of social progress (as long as "the establishment centrists" can't screw things up). (But we will still need to show up to vote to make sure that it stays that way.)
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