Susan Collins May Be Chuckling, but She's in Far Worse Trouble Now

[Celerity]

She was pretty clearly going to beat a man credibly accused of rape. But now? There’ll be a normal Democratic candidate in a heavily Democratic state.

https://newrepublic.com/post/212944/susan-collins-platner-democratic-convention

https://archive.ph/TiqMn



The conventional media wisdom is that Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins is sitting back and laughing this week, and well she might be. The collapse of Graham Platner’s campaign is an implosion for the ages, and it puts the state’s Democrats in a tricky situation they need to navigate skillfully in these next two weeks. But November is a long way away. If—and it’s a big but by no means insurmountable if—the Democrats make it through these next two weeks without too many bruises and unite behind a nominee, Collins is still going to be fighting for her life in a Democratic state where Donald Trump’s approval rating is 36 percent, where 85 percent say the state’s economy is fair or poor, and where the generic Democratic congressional edge in one recent poll is a hefty 11 percent. Those are all terrifying numbers for Collins, and she knows it.

Before we get into all that, a few closing thoughts on Platner. I wrote about him a month ago, after The New York Times published some unsavory revelations about his treatment of some former girlfriends (while others said he was fine toward them), and right before the primary. I wrote that since he was almost certain to be the nominee, national Democrats needed to back him. I did, however, add three caveats, as experience has taught me to do in such situations: “Short of revelations involving murder, rape, or a taste for child pornography, Platner needs to be backed by Democrats to the hilt.” Well, he managed one out of three, but one is enough. It’s utterly and obviously disqualifying.

Some Platner defenders have tried to say, What about innocent until proven guilty? That’s ridiculous in the context of running for office. Yes, it means everything in a court of law, where a defendant is on trial for his very freedom; there, he is absolutely entitled to a presumption of innocence, and he must be given his day in court so that we all hear his side. But a political campaign isn’t a criminal trial. In a political campaign, political judgments must be made, and the clear political judgment here is that no party can back someone facing a credible allegation of rape, for God’s sake. As for the intentionally weak vetting of Platner by the young leftist strategists who “discovered” him: I hope people have learned some obvious lessons. Daniel Moraff, the person who’s apparently largely responsible for this debacle, told The Wall Street Journal last month that he sensed a public thirsting for non-cookie-cutter candidates who challenge the status quo. That’s surely true, in a lot of places, but it hardly means you don’t need to put your candidates through the usual paces. It’s grotesquely arrogant and irresponsible, and if Collins ends up winning, Moraff will bear a huge share of the blame.

However: I still say, Moraff and Platner aside, Collins could well be in far more trouble with a new Democratic nominee. Kamala Harris beat Trump by seven points in the state. And as I noted above, in a recent poll, respondents said that for Congress, they’d choose a Democrat over a Republican by 53 percent to 42 percent. On top of that, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, who will be at the top of the ticket, looks like she’s going to beat her Republican foe by around 15 points. That means Collins is going to have to convince a lot of independents to switch from the D column to the R one as they move down the ballot from governor to senator. Collins has won such voters before, but I would remind people, as they look over past elections for parallels, to take note not only of what’s similar but of what’s different.

snip

[RandySF]

1. I think she knows she's in trouble now.

[ALBliberal]

2. You just no they were ready to bring out all his dirty laundry

And she was rehearsing those debate lines.

Hope she’s concerned.

[everyonematters]

3. I think the state is fed up with Collins and Trump. A lot of more of the undecideds should go for

the Dem now.

[sop]

4. "What about innocent until proven guilty? That's ridiculous in the context of running for office. Yes, it means

everything in a court of law, where a defendant is on trial for his very freedom; there, he is absolutely entitled to a presumption of innocence, and he must be given his day in court so that we all hear his side. But a political campaign isn’t a criminal trial. In a political campaign, political judgments must be made, and the clear political judgment here is that no party can back someone facing a credible allegation of rape."

[ZDU]

5. Shelf Life

Nearing expiration?

[BannonsLiver]

6. That would be quite a turnaround story if someone manages to beat her.

And very humiliating for Susan.

[pat_k]

9. Data is pretty clear that the new nominee will be stronger against her

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=21362773

[Bok_Tukalo]

7. As long as a neoliberal shill isn't chosen

No reason to vote if they do.

[pat_k]

8. Platner was under-performing where he should have been

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=21362773

[0rganism]

10. I hope it fills her with a frothy mixture of concern

Deep Concern.
Seething irrepressible concern.
Mega Concern of the highest order
Kaiju-level concern

[orthoclad]

11. The whole Platner thing smells of ratfucking

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you don't have enemies.

The Reich Wing is capable of long-term planning, while the left tends to be reactive and spontaneous. They have the resources, the wealth, and many decades of practice at playing long-game dirty. Relative unknown comes out of the weeds and after he wins a primary suddenly accusations spring forth, tarnishing the socialist left. Could he be a Reich sleeper agent? After all, we have a sleeper agent in the White House.

The Reich Wing has the resources of the US's KGB, the CIA, available. They are skilled and practiced at such plots, with double and triple agents. A century of skullduggery and deep political psychology is in their hands, I'd say going back to WWI.

[Polybius]

12. If that's the case, then why not wait until October?

By this coming out now, this hurts them a lot more than us. Collins was cruising to a win before he dropped out.