McConnell's death won't be announced until after 8/3.

[pat_k]

Last edited Tue Jul 7, 2026, 05:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Added on edit 2:55 PT:
Apologies. My thinking was confused by the stupid notion that his term was up next cycle. Seems the difference between pre- and post- 8/3 cut off is whether Beshear appoints someone to fill the vacancy (if vacant before 8/3) or the seat says vacant ,'til winner of GE is sworn in 1/3/2027 (if vacant after 8/3). As soon as I have time, I need to research more about the law, but it seems they pretty much stripped his appointment authority in that he picks from three names some Republican committee selects or some such thing. It sounds like it is feasible that if vacant before 8/3 he could use the appointment to challenge the law that stripped his authority, but I have no idea how that would work.

___________
I am sure they are loathe to have his seat filled in a high-turnout, likely blue tsunami, election. And if his seat is vacant before 8/3, that is what will happen

They may be unable to keep his brain-dead condition under wraps for another three weeks though. Someone will leak, unless they have him on life support in some high security location.

My prediction: Within days after 8/3 it will be announced that he died of "complications" (I.e., they pulled the plug).

Gemini summary (apply whatever level of skepticism you apply to all AI)

If a vacancy occurs during the 2026 election cycle, the process operates as follows:

Special Election Requirement: Rather than choosing a successor himself, Gov. Beshear must call a special election.

November 3 General Election: If an early vacancy occurs prior to the filing deadline or late-summer cutoff, the race to finish out McConnell's current term (which expires in January 2027) will simply coincide with the regularly scheduled November 3 general election.

The Legal Uncertainty: While the law explicitly mandates a special election, some legal observers and Democrats speculate Gov. Beshear could challenge the constitutionality of this measure in court to attempt an appointment.

More from Gemini (same caveat)

Under Kentucky’s succession laws (specifically House Bill 622 passed in 2024), if Senator Mitch McConnell’s seat becomes vacant on or before August 3 (three months prior to the general election), the Governor must issue a proclamation to fill the vacancy through a special election that coincides with the midterms on November 3.

[milestogo]

1. In other words, this is fraud.

Oh I get it, the machines are still plugged in. But there is no hope of a functional recovery.

He's a zombie.

[pat_k]

2. Yep!

[Wiz Imp]

31. 100% wrong. See post 28.

[rampartd]

3. they are not worried that ky will elect a dem

massie is eligible to run in a special election to fill for mcconnell.

[pat_k]

4. I think they are worried about it. I have no doubt internal numbers are...

... scaring the pants off them.

Uphill battle? Absolutely.

Impossible? No.

Meet the Kentucky Democrats who think they can flip McConnell’s Senate seat
Kentucky Public Radio | By Sylvia Goodman
Published May 13, 2026 at 2:24 PM EDT

https://www.lpm.org/news/2026-05-13/meet-the-kentucky-democrats-who-think-they-can-flip-mcconnells-senate-seat

[meadowlander]

5. Obviously reprehensible, if true, but something in my lizard brain loves that for him.

Let him suffer indignity for months at the hands of the amoral jackals he threw open the corridors of power for.

The sultan of congressional obstruction blocked on his final journey over naked political maneuvering.

Thoughts and prayers for the family of course and not ideal for democracy. If only he was also definitely in pain though.

Sorry I'll be an adult and rise above the other 33,000 days of my life. You have to let me have this one.

[onenote]

6. Can someone explain why it makes a difference?

McConnell's term ends in January and the nominees for his successor, to be chosen at the regularly scheduled November election, have been chosen. And polling suggests the republican has a significant lead over the Democrat. So if a "special" election is held to finish the unexpired term assuming the seat is declared vacant, why would the outcome of that special election be any different than the outcome of the election for the new term? And if the special election is held before the November 3 election -- why would the outcome be any different than the expected outcome of the election in November for the term beginning in January?

[pat_k]

13. I was confused. Apologies. I thought it was up next cycle.

The difference appears to be whether Beshear appoints someone to fill the seat (if vacant before 8/3) or if it stays empty til winner of GE is sworn in 1/3/2027 (post 8/3 vacancy).

It also sounds like Beshear could use an appointment to challenge the law that stripped him of appointment power, but I have no idea how that would work and need to do more research when I have time.

[onenote]

20. KY law doesn't allow Beshear to appoint a replacement

The law was changed to eliminate that power.. Beshear vetoed the law but his veto was overridden. He has indicated he might go to court claiming the KY constitution gives him the power to fill a vacancy via appointment, but whether he would win that lawsuit is very iffy.

[pat_k]

22. I haven't had time to research but I'm now ...

... wondering if the changes that stripped him of his power apply to "pre-cutoff" vacancies, and left procedures for "post-cutoff" vacancies alone.

That is, that before the changes, he was empowered to make the appointment if it was more than 56 days before the next election, but that the office would stay vacant if the vacancy occurred less that 56 days before the next election.


If that is the case, the thing they are avoiding is giving Beshear an opportunity to challenge the constitutionality (state constitution) of the law. A vacancy before the cutoff would give Beshear an opportunity to challenge the new law that bars him from making the appointment in that circumstance.

Not sure if I'm making sense, but I'm pretty sure Beshear believed the law violated the state constitution and planned to challenge it at the first opportunity.

[onenote]

23. Nope. It simply repealed the provision that gave him authority to fill a US Senate vacancy

https://apnews.com/article/kentucky-legislature-senate-vacancies-faf6f1f41fa42c3e0b818fc3fb3d4d4a

[pat_k]

24. Thanks!!

[pat_k]

25. Well, he would need the strongest instance to challenge...

.. I'm guessing that being barred from filling a vacancy that happens before the 8/3 cut off would make for a stronger challenge than being barred from making a vacancy after the cut off, where leaving the office vacant is arguably something that could have happened under the pre-2020 law.

In any case, I think his assertion that the state constitution is clear about the appointment power granted is spot on, but timing is apparently arguable.

https://codes.findlaw.com/ky/kentucky-constitution/ky-const-sect-152/

--- AI (be skeptical,)

Under Section 152 of the Kentucky Constitution, the Governor is granted the power to appoint individuals to fill vacancies in all statewide offices or for districts larger than a county. However, the exact duration of the appointment and whether a special election is required depends on the specific timing of the vacancy and legislative updates.

[Wiz Imp]

30. It doesn't make a difference.

It's a meaningless date as far as Mitch McConnell's Senate seat is concerned.

See post 28

[Initech]

7. The republican party is pure fucking evil.

Like seriously, truly, there's no circle of hell big enough for these cretins, evil. They must be stopped.

[pat_k]

17. FYI, I'm less clear about pre- post- 8/3 vacancy. See section added to top of OP.

[LeftInTX]

8. Or resignation

We don't know what kind of condition he really is in. He could be in a semi-vegetative state.

He isn't legally dead.
He could be brain dead
He could just be where many people his age are when they have a massive stroke. (Terri Schiavo comes to mind, but there are people who function higher than Terri. Capable of hearing and responding, but can't talk)

[bucolic_frolic]

9. Beat the clock

[AZJonnie]

10. So, what happens AFTER 8/3?

It's kinda left unaddressed by the OP, making it hard to judge the conspiracy theory on its merits

[pat_k]

12. I think the difference is that the seat stays vacant 'til 1/3/2027

I was confused. I thought his term was up 2028, but it's actually up 2027, so I think the difference is that if before 8/3, Beshear appoints someone to fill the seat (one of 3 picked by some Republican committee or something) and the "special election" is consolidated with the November election. If after 8/3, the seat stays vacant until 1/3/2027, when the winner of the GE takes the oath.

It sounds like Beshear could challenge the law that stripped him of appointment power, but I have no idea how that would work.

I need to look at the law more closely though when I have time.

[Wiz Imp]

29. Nothing. It's a meaningless date as far as Mitch McConnell's Senate seat is concerned.

[Boo1]

11. The seat is already contested this year

With candidates already chosen in the primary.

McConnell being dead or alive has nothing to do with that

[pat_k]

14. Apologies. Confused myself. I thought he was in the next cycle

[electric_blue68]

15. I hope someone leaks what's going on.

[pat_k]

16. I'm less clear now about the advantage of post 8/3. See section added at top of op.

[electric_blue68]

18. Got it 👍

[standingtall]

19. Beshear can also use the State Constitution to ignore the law after 8/3

Which is what I think will happen. Sure Thune will refuse to seat Beshear's appointment, but it will likely prevent republicans from getting one of their curated list of candidates appointed if Beshear wins the case before the Ky Supreme Court

[onenote]

21. If he tries, there's a good chance the courts will rule against him.

The law is not clear and if read to be consistent as to all federal candidates it would give him the power to fill a House vacancy via appointment which clearly would violate the US constitution. So its entirely possible, maybe even likely, that the KY courts will construe the KY constitution's provisions about filling vacancies via appointment as limited to state offices, not federal.

[Jarqui]

26. Since he's taking phone calls,

why not have a member of the Democrats, like Schumer, visit him briefly .. .drop off a get well card, etc ..

I know, I know, they won't let it happen. But it puts some heat on them and helps the public clue into what they are up to.

[purr-rat beauty]

27. They like leaving the dying...

....on the edge of death for their disgusting agendas like keeping a black woman alive for a fetus that was barely viable, born prematurely, and is still under medical care...the mother is dead

Such selfish and cruel assholes the rightwing are

[Wiz Imp]

28. There is no cutoff. I have no idea where you're getting that from.

The Governor of Kentucky can not appoint a successor. PERIOD. Kentucky law requires a Senate vacancy to be filled via a special election. The rest (including the response from Gemini) is nonsense. There is ZERO benefit for Republicans for Mitch McConnell to remain a Senate member in an incapacitated condition. Republicans would want McConnell to die ASAP. As of now, until that seat is filled, Republicans have only 52 votes in the Senate instead of 53. They want a special election held as soon as possible so they can get that 53rd vote back. (Of course they need McConnell to die or resign in order for a special election to happen).

There is NO Republican conspiracy to cover up his death. The longer he remains alive, the more it HARMS Republicans. It doesn't help them in any way.

[pat_k]

32. Changes to the law in 2021 and 2024 likely violate the state constitution.

If the vacancy was far enough in advance of the election, Beshear could challenge the law barring him from making the appointment more effectively.

It is arguable that less than 3 months before an election, the office would have remained vacant even under the law before the 2021 changes.

Timing does matter.

Beshear made it pretty clear that if he was given the opportunity, he would challenge the law.