The 6 Races That Could Flip the Senate in 2026

[In It to Win It]

Don’t look now, but Democrats could actually take the Senate in the midterms.

For the first time, prediction markets now favor Democrats to win the Senate majority in November, a potentially seismic event in American politics. The party’s rising odds come as President Donald Trump’s approval rating drops to the lowest levels of his second term so far, with the Iran war becoming increasingly unpopular and gas prices continuing to rise. In this video, we first rank Democrats’ best pickup opportunities and examine the new path that has opened up for the party in recent months. Finally, we review the three key questions that could decide the majority come November.

0:00 Prediction markets’ big change
1:44 The implications of a Dem Senate
2:56 Tier one: The must wins
4:49 Tier two: Light red states
8:24 Tier three: Dark red states
10:14 The wild cards
11:18 The three big questions

[RandySF]

1. Platner will take Maine off the table.

[fujiyamasan]

2. Not necessarily

It depends on how badly republicans will be despised going into the elections.

If this is a wave similar to 2006, even a candidate with as much baggage as Platner could win. Maine is an odd state. They may very well dismiss his past comments. Collins’ approval ratings are also terrible.

That said, I wish there were other candidates besides someone who is almost 80 (even if she is the sitting governor), and someone so poorly vetted.