I'd bet scarcity is already a factor in retail price

[bucolic_frolic]

I haven't shopped much in about 5 weeks. I was in shock at the supermarkets today. A few observations:

There are a lot of closeouts because food is not moving. But there are also price increases particularly in produce and meats, dairy and frozen, canned. I saw many items up 7-15%. And there are price disparities between stores. Broccoli was $1.99 at two stores, but $2.99 at a third. Dairy products - yogurt, sour creme, cottage or ricotta, cream cheese - are soaring. But cream cheese was up at most, but still had summer prices at another.

Also I needed a piece of plywood. What was about $6.99 when I looked 2 years ago is now $14.81. This for 1/4" X 24" X 24". That's about $3.69 a square foot. And the 1/4" is more like 7/32" or less.