Trump's deportation program is aimed at destabilizing Blue States - whether you like it or not.

[PeaceWave]

I am going to preface this by saying the following is a hunch. Make of it what you will.

(1) Trump isn't a fool. He knows that his expressed plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants is going to be a huge logistical and financial undertaking. Blue States have also begun to express an intent to fight Trump in court over implementation of the program in their states. For Trump, these cases will be nothing more than a red herring, a distraction to make Democrats think they're accomplishing something. In fact, Trump may well prefer to drag out and eventually lose these cases. Why?

(2) Trump's deportation program has two aims. First, it is intended to appease his base. To this end, Trump will focus the majority of federal resources (coupled with more than willing state resources) at deporting immigrants out of Red States. Word will spread quickly throughout the Latin community, with large numbers of immigrants fleeing to Blue States. The days of Red States bussing or airlifting undocumented immigrants to Blue States will end, as these immigrants will effectively self-deport themselves out of Red States to avoid being ejected entirely from the U.S.

(3) Here's where Trump's second aim will be realized. The large influx of undocumented immigrants trekking from Red States into Blue States will very quickly overwhelm the social welfare networks of most, if not all, Blue States. Consequently, an increase in visible poverty and crime in Blue States will ensue. By the midterms, frustrated voters in Blue States will be inclined to vote for change and oust their primarily Democratic mayors, city council members and county-wide politicians - despite the fact that none of these Democrats will have been responsible for the decline in living conditions in their jurisdictions.

Trump's deportation program, while clearly rooted in racism, is also going to serve his intent to alter the structure of local politics in every state by crippling local Democratic turnout. The man intends to do what Grover Norquist once expressed a desire to do with taxes. That is, Trump intends to cut the Democratic Party "down to the size where he can drown it in a bathtub." And, if I am right, he is planning on doing it with assistance from all of us, not just Republicans.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/immigration-litigation-prepared-advocacy-groups-democratic-leaders/story?id=115915848

[Prairie Gates]

1. Assumes there will be some large migration toward the blue states

It's the usual misunderstanding of actual migrants as human beings.

Honestly, this reads like the abstract theorizing of right wing economists: Migrants will be incentivized to move to blue states, thereby...blah blah blah. It also strangely reads like the Trump-praise genres that circulate online: it's a short step from "Trump isn't a fool" to "Trump is a genius."

[modrepub]

3. I'm Slowly Coming Back to DU

The few posts I've been able to read through seem full of apocalyptic premonitions. Your response gives me some hope that there are still some level-headed folks in this space.

To me, the real red line I'll be looking for is if the next administration and its supporters begin confiscating personal effects and assets from those they intend to apprehend and deport. An operation as large as Trump envisions is going to cost a LOT of money. What better way to "fund" it then by seizing the assets of those you arrest. To me that's a bridge too far and proof that this country is way off the tracks.

Don't fret over what Trump and his minions say (he said a lot of things the first time he was in office), pay attention to what they actually do.

[Irish_Dem]

4. The GOP has moved immigrants from red to blue states.

So a form of this idea has already happened.

And we know Trump will try to get revenge on his critics and enemies.

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
And we have plenty of data to support Trump/GOP future behavior.
It is science.

[PeaceWave]

6. Bingo

[spooky3]

10. It also anticipates that immigrants' move to blue states will

Burden the social welfare infrastructure. In fact, most immigrants who have been here a while are hard working. They will likely find jobs in blue states where employers can’t find enough people willing to work at the set wages.

[Prairie Gates]

11. Yes, that's taken as a very questionable given

Good point.

[wnylib]

13. True. Many people think of immigrants as

people fleeing poverty in their homelands for economic opportunities in the US. There are some who fit that demographic, but a lot of immigrants and even migrants across the southern border do not fit it. That image goes back to the European peasants who came to the US in the Industrial Revolution to take factory jobs.

Many immigrants come to the US today from educated, middle class backgrounds and held professional or semi professional jobs in their homelands. They work low paying jobs in agriculture, or as dish washers, restaurant servers or food preparers, until they learn English and can get licensed in the US. Sometimes licensing requires that they take additional courses here. Once they complete the requirements, they work as doctors, nurses, pharmacists, professors, lawyers, school teachers, accountants, lab technologists.

That is true for migrants who cross the southern border, too. They leave their countries because of gangs and threats to their children, or because of corrupt governments aligned with drug gangs. Some are women fleeing abusive relationships and marriages in countries where the courts are not sympathetic to women.

There are also people fleeing poverty and seeking better chances in the US.

[PeaceWave]

12. Feel free to enlighten me how I am "misunderstanding migrants as human beings."

Last edited Tue Nov 19, 2024, 01:01 AM - Edit history (1)

I am the son of a Guatemalan immigrant. All of the cousins on my Mom's side of the family immigrated from Guatemala - some of them by foot. All of them are now residing legally in the U.S., in places like the Bay Area, Los Angeles and Houston. One of my family's closest friends is an immigrant from El Salvador. When his nephew was detained crossing the border from Mexico at the age of 18 and was consequently put in detainment for 9 months, I helped this family friend complete an Application for Family Reunification for BCFS Health and Human Services. Three weeks later that kid was out of the hell hole he'd been put in and was living with his uncle in the Bay Area and working in construction. When other Hispanic immigrants in our area were on the verge of losing their homes during the "Great Recession" - because they'd been conned into Countrywide loans the terms of which they didn't understand - my Mom and I both assisted several with completing their modification agreements to save their homes.

But, hey, maybe you know something about the immigrant experience in the U.S. that I don't already know. Maybe you have a better understanding of immigrants "as human beings," complete with an understanding and respect for their ambitions, fears and guts to uproot themselves from their native lands and come here not speaking a lick of English and make something of themselves. If you've got a story to tell, I'd love to hear it.

[rampartd]

2. that is only a little better than my nightmare

"a trail of tears" bordering on a death march herded by "volunteer" militias.

but sure. anything to divide and destroy.

[VMA131Marine]

5. You are missing something important

Most undocumented immigrants are settled in a particular location. Many live in households with U.S. citizens, either spouses, children, or both. They cannot just pick up and leave. And if they do leave then the red state businesses that depend on them: hospitality, agriculture, construction will suffer greatly.

I think you’re overestimating the impact on blue states and not considering the negative impact on red states.

[Dan]

7. Wondering....

Trump enacts his retribution against Hispanics, wonder how their home countries will feel and how they might respond against Americans in their countries?

[PeaceWave]

8. I can't answer for Latin American governments, but most of their citizens look fondly on the U.S.

Trump's anti-Hispanic rhetoric and deportation program has begun to and will mostly likely continue to poison that well though. No doubt that China is looking forward to a more favorable environment in which to make inroads into Central and South America.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/807013/latam-perception-united-states-country/

[Johonny]

9. Trump isn't a fool

Lost me there . . .