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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAbout Those Bullet Ballots
Those of you comparing Democrats questioning the election to QAnon, I have a couple of questions for you.
Listening to Thom Hartmann, he had a guest on who was one of the computer experts who sent the letter to Kamala to audit the election.
This guy has built computer hardware.
Answer this question;
Nevada and Arizona had 5% and 7% of their total ballots, bullet ballots. Neighboring state Utah had way way less than 1%.
Occam's Razor - if something stinks there's good chance it's rotten.
A hand count audit is the only thing that will convince me that this election was not stolen.
Don't you dare compare me with QAnon. People don't take the time to vote and only vote for 1 Republican on the ballot, that would be stupid.
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bearsfootball516
(6,545 posts)I know two people who literally did exactly that, I work with them. They both registered to vote for the first time this fall, voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank.
It's hard to believe, but those people do exist.
NJCher
(38,560 posts)in one of the discussion threads, Emile asked the question: "How many bullet ballots were there for Harris?" We need the answer to that question.
gab13by13
(25,994 posts)thanks for catching that.
onetexan
(13,913 posts)
TomSlick
(12,073 posts)They are thought to occur when the voter is particularly energized in only the one election.
onetexan
(13,913 posts)
Native
(6,727 posts)I seem to recall some numbers. And the letter also highlighted the difference - like how in past elections bullet ballots accounted for roughly .05% compared to like a full 5 or 7% in this one. iow, the jump in this election was outrageous. in his interview today on Thom Hartmann, he talked more about the tabulators. worth a listen.
OMGWTF
(4,520 posts)Beck23
(310 posts)gab13by13
(25,994 posts)bearsfootball516
(6,545 posts)What I'm saying is that if I personally know two people, I can only imagine how many others may have done that in a state where millions of votes were cast.
Loupe Garoue
(77 posts)I have been doing a lot of reading about this, and I recall that that is one of the reasons it is raising alarms.
RandomNumbers
(18,338 posts)How "convenient!" that this happened in the swing states!
It is possible that it is related to intensive campaigning in those states. But it is reasonable to select a few districts and do a hand recount there. If issues are found, then it would expand to more districts. If no issues are found in the first sample, then it is a lot harder to justify the expense of further recounts.
onenote
(44,914 posts)
Ray Bruns
(4,868 posts)Yes they are.
yellowdogintexas
(22,934 posts)Basically, vorers skip the downballot entirely. Sometimes the only race they are interested in is their own representative.
I saw a LOT ov undervoting in my precinct stats.
(mostly Democrats skipping over all the unopposed judicial positions)
Beck23
(310 posts)JMCKUSICK
(785 posts)
soldierant
(8,135 posts)The question is, do they exist in swing states in so much greater numbers than they do in reliably red or reliably blue states? Because that's what happened.
If there were more numbers (and therefore also percentages) of bullet ballots in Arizona than there were in New York, why? If there were more sheer numbers of bullet ballots in Georgia than there were in Texas, why? That's the question.
Bullet ballots have been tracked long enough for those doing the tracking to state categorically that this has not happened before. The number amd percentage has been pretty stable both from election to election and from state to state. That is not true this time.
soandso
(1,631 posts)As proved in my post in this thread and the single thread I created with the same data.
Hope22
(3,385 posts)I don’t want to argue with you. I’m so tired of people who may or may not be experts telling everyone what to do! Really tired! And then the people who know and won’t speak out of fear cower in the corner. Too much!
soandso
(1,631 posts)and the poster I responded to was not talking about software but so called "bullet ballots", an entirely different subject.
rainy
(6,249 posts)Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)You want us to answer your question, but you do not want to present us with evidence for the claims.
And "I heard it from a guy on Thom Hartmann" isn't evidence.
One thing this guy has been very shady about is providing data, methodologies, and evidence for assertions he is making. Even when directly asked by knowledgeable data scientists (his Reddit AMA) he bobbed and weaved his way through it. (And if you pay attention to his answers - really pay attention - you rapidly figure out he's cherry-picking as much as humanly possible to make his claims. For example, in his North Carolina claims, he admits he just ignored the governor's race, because he didn't think it should count. Don't all data scientists do that?).
You can't demand answers to a question when your own basis for that question isn't established as a fact. But you're acting as though it is. You've simply accepted the claim prima facie and then demand people refute that which is impossible, because no one can verify it.
Which is what . . . that word you dislike does.
The claim is one he's making (and you're repeating). Show your work.
Loupe Garoue
(77 posts)None of us have all the information, this is why a hand count would be necessary.
Wiz Imp
(3,099 posts)No data has been provided to the public to support these claims. If the numbers are real, show them!. Otherwise, it makes it appear that they are just making shit up.
NJCher
(38,560 posts)++Provide the clip that shows where he "bobbed and weaved."
--show examples of cherry picking so we can make up our own minds and not rely on you for a judgment.
These are subjective claims.
rubbersole
(8,922 posts)Why not? Lots of rw claims of fraud before the election (lookin' at you, Gym). magats will freak out, but they already seem angrier than before the election. Global stability is on the line.
Think. Again.
(20,749 posts)If Kamala did in fact lose legitimately then it is what it is. But we demand a recount just to confirm this. Nothing wrong with asking for that.
bikes and bunnies
(99 posts)Then we'll have the evidence, one way or the other.
Why would anyone be opposed to that?
Come on, Madame Vice President.
You said you would fight for us.
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)Well said!
Cirsium
(1,494 posts)Is there an extraordinarily high percentage of ballots registering a vote for Trump and no votes for any other office in the swing states when compared to neighboring states? I don't know that to be true. But if that were true, it would warrant further investigation, would it not?
onenote
(44,914 posts)There is no evidence that there is an "extraordinarily high" percentage of ballots registering a vote for Trump and no votes in the swing states -- certainly nowhere near the number Spoonamore claims.
He claims 350,000 such votes in North Carolina alone. But the total number of votes for president only exceeds the total number of votes for governor by around 100,000 at last count -- somewhat higher than is typical, but a not surprising outcome given the total collapse of Mark Robinson's campaign for governor.
In Arizona the difference between the total votes in the presidential race and the total votes in the US Senate race was around 1.2% -- basically the same as in 2020.
And in Nevada, a swing state won by Trump also was around 1.2 percent -- actually slightly less that the percentage in Virginia - 1.34% -- a non-swing state won by Harris.
These numbers are easily checked by going to the official election sites for these states -- adding up the total votes cast for president and a statewide race such as governor or US Senate, subtracting the latter from the former and calculating the percentage of the difference.
Mr. Spoonamore apparently hasn't bothered to do any of those things and is pulling numbers of alleged 'bullet ballots' and percentages out of thin air.
What the hell is all of the chatter about?
Zeitghost
(4,557 posts)n/t
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)As demonstrated by chucking Elias who has done the hardwork for a long time, under the first bus that passed along with at least inferring Biden, Harris, Shapiro, Evers, and Witmer are either in on some shenanigans to hand the nation over to ChumpCo or at minimum are too out of it and disinterested to do anything.
Many apparently grabbed transcripts of Chump's lies and decided that he wss was right the whole way and copied that shit nearly verbatim, "Deep State" and all.
Cirsium
(1,494 posts)It is a great tragedy. Many warnings were ignored, for years. Critical voices were marginalized and ridiculed. Compromise after compromise after compromise.
nbsmom
(649 posts)The discussion on Thom Hartmann today unleashed a load of Deja vu for me.
In 2002, Spoonamore was one of the people who investigated the malfeasance that flipped the results of the Max Cleland/Saxby Chambliss election (Max Cleland was initially reluctant to accept his help, but later admitted that Spoonamore had been right all along.)
In 2004, he was part of the team that investigated the man in the middle exploit that resulted in Kerry’s loss in Ohio.
In other words, this guy knows when people are doing funky things with people’s votes. If what he’s saying isn’t true and that he’s pulling numbers out of thin air, then why did Musk flag Spoonamore’s account on Twitter/X after his AMA on Reddit?
Spoonamore himself is saying his suspicions were raised because Musk held a “lottery” to grab addresses from would-be voters. Then on Election Day, the bomb threats at primarily Dem precincts in PA. Ultimately, he’s really only saying he’s seeing flags, and that the only way to know for sure is to do hand counts in the two precincts with outlier results. If those track with the tabulated totals, then he’s wrong.
But the thing is, Spoonamore is not the only one. There’s a different group of election and cybersecurity officials (part of the Free Speech for People group) who have also shared a letter with VP Harris. And I have also seen some analysis done of both the Arizona and North Carolina races by different data professionals. All of them are saying, “the math ain’t mathing.”
I don’t pretend to know your background or impugn your expertise. It looks like you’ve been a part of the DU community for a long time. But as others have pointed out on this thread, there is a lot at stake, and it’s important that we do everything we can to fight to save our democracy. After all, as Madam Vice President likes to say, “When we fight, we win.”
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)Post #85 lays out the numbers
Cirsium
(1,494 posts)...
Wiz Imp
(3,099 posts)Yes if true, it warrants further investigation so prove to us it's true and we'll investigate. Why are they not providing any data to prove it's true?
Agreed.
keepthemhonestO
(461 posts)With NC is that governor was not popular and was getting ousted.
There are many irregularities in those battleground states only, please keep and open mind.i am sorry, I'm not able to list them all here but you don't have to be a mathematical genius to see it. I was terrible in statistics but the probability of winning all those battleground states is extremely low.
Shortly MIT and other people will be writing up reports about this but it will be too late.
Listen, even if she wanted a recount, got it in a few places and it changed the outcome... They'll still install him. I just want proof of what I already know, he stole it.
Highest office in the land, the most powerful position in the world, yeah he pussy grabbed America.
yellowdogintexas
(22,934 posts)From what I can tell, he was well liked
keepthemhonestO
(461 posts)Mark Robinson, the KKK wannabe.
unc70
(6,344 posts)Governor Cooper was term limited.
The unpopular candidate for governor was Mark Robinson, the R candidate who was/is the black Nazi. That race is not representative.
onenote
(44,914 posts)Did you miss the revelations about Mark Robinson? Its no wonder that more than the typical number of voters opted not to vote in the governor's race. But even in North Carolina, the numbers don't come close to what Spoonamore has, without any substantiation, claimed.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)But the actual numbers show otherwise.
The battleground polls leading up to the election showed races within the margin of error for every battleground state...I always assumed that one candidate would win all of them, I just had no idea which one it would be.
keepthemhonestO
(461 posts)Must have watched the same news I did , where they said trump would be flooding the polling with their own polls. This was intended to make the race look close.
EdmondDantes_
(215 posts)It's a silly argument.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)It implies citizens should blindly trust the government and that’s not how democracies work
Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)But he's being awfully spiky about it and highly selective about what little he is willing to share. He's heavy on claims, shallow on producing hard data that can be examined with methodologies replicated. You know, what science and math do.
He's been asked, directly, multiple times to share where he's pulling information. He hasn't. He talks around it and implies things without saying anything concrete that can be grasped.
Does that strike you as someone operating in wholly good faith? If this is all true, and he already did all the calculations, just drop the data. He should have it all organized already. Just hit "post" on substack and let people go through it.
The fact he blatantly avoids doing this when asked should raise all the flags.
It's credulity sprung from wish-making.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)And those guys have tons of data to see
Brad blog has the details if you’re curious but
I don’t feel like that negates my original point that “ we the people “ should get to oversee every bit of our elections
Response to questionseverything (Reply #61)
Wiz Imp This message was self-deleted by its author.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)to show that his numbers are BS, so why can't he show his to show that his numbers are valid?
A couple of other "posters on the web" have done the same thing in this thread. It's not rocket science.
Zeitghost
(4,557 posts)Posted their numbers, we can check the math and it doesn't back up the claims.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)They were counted with a software program that no citizen gets to oversee
Zeitghost
(4,557 posts)We elect to oversea them and who follow rigorous security and accuracy standards.
The bullet ballot claims do no match the published vote counts.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)Past that, you are the second poster that has explained to me how citizens should simply “trust” our government and election officials to let us know what the results are.
I don’t agree with that I believe if regular citizens can’t oversee the count we don’t have a legitimate democracy
Wasn’t it stalin who said, who votes doesn’t matter only who counts the votes?
EdmondDantes_
(215 posts)Regular citizens can and do oversee the process.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)
DiamondShark
(1,115 posts)We followed strict laws, statues, and guidelines when I worked at my local County Election Department. I don't know who is telling you your local government IT Department and County Elections Department that oversee the election in your county is corrupt. Voting machines, Tabulators, Ballot scanners, Ballot printers, etc are all configured with strict protocols to minimize errors. I won't give details on how the machines were programmed for each race. That wasn't my job. My job was working with a team to install the software, clean the scanners, clean the printers, etc. Two or more teams worked to install the software, then another team would check your work. We are a big county, so we had those options available.
There have been a few reports of scanners flipping votes in Pennsylvania. The reason they caught those errors? The did a spot check, a hand count, to verify the count was correct in each race. We do that to confirm the scanner is working correctly before zeroing out and running again. This is done by a different group.
There was a report of a scanner that wasn't zeroed out, how did they catch that you ask? Working as a team, and two or more people verifying the count. On top of that, we have poll watchers and lawyers making sure the public workers are following the laws, statues, and guidelines for doing their jobs.
How did the public learn about these things? Whistleblower laws and mandatory reporting.
Walleye
(37,181 posts)They thought that just being suspicious was enough to overturn the election, so they stormed the capitol. I don’t think we’re thinking about that. Just proves that we are the patriotic Americans in this situation
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)Btw thousands of votes were found that didn’t get recorded first time around….it didn’t change biden’s win though
I do think election officials were embarrassed that votes were found and realized why other states don’t want looked at too closely
hadEnuf
(2,905 posts)Not to mention that they tried a coup d'etat over it resulting in casualties.
But now we should keep our mouths shut while they don't utter a peep because their Fuhrer won, which is looking more and more suspicious every day due to these irregularities now being discovered?
We either want our democracy or not.
proud patriot
(101,303 posts)Just like you I'm not a conspiarcy nut ..
Bluethroughu
(6,460 posts)There are questionable forces fixing to break our country into pieces so the vultures can pick off the carcus.
Why is Elon not being brought in by the justice dept. He is clearly overstepping his boundaries of the Logan Act? He committed election crimes and interference and he's overstayed his visa.
MichMan
(13,916 posts)For example, Trump is leading Harris in Michigan with a margin of 1.4%. That is approx. 80,000 votes. In Wisconsin the margin is 30,000 votes.
Remember the Franken/Coleman recount? The margin of victory in the Franken/Coleman Minnesota Senate race in 2008 was 0.01%
After the 2016 election, Jill Stein initiated recounts in several states. On November 29, after Stein paid $3.5 million needed to initiate a recount, the Wisconsin Elections Commission ordered a recount in the state to begin on December 1. Wisconsin's recount was completed and its results certified early on December 12. Clinton increased her vote total in the state by 713 votes, while Trump increased his by 844, widening his lead by 131 votes over the original November 8 count and reaffirming his victory there.
I've seen post after post saying that there should be a recount "because" and "why not", yet people are expecting someone else to foot the bill. Easy to spend someone else's money on something that has zero hope of succeeding. Might as well throw it in a black hole.
Bluethroughu
(6,460 posts)There are experts saying the anomalies are only in the swing states, and show bullet ballots as an issue because they are exceptionally higher than any other years, but in the same media markets in the states around them, without any increase in their bullet ballots.
MichMan
(13,916 posts)
malaise
(280,133 posts)Rec
Tweedy
(1,241 posts)Yes. People do vote for only one person on the ballot. Sometimes people vote for only one thing on the ballot.
Sadly, most of Mr. Trump’s voters were badly misinformed in our last election. We absolutely need to win the information wars.
Hope22
(3,385 posts)Look the bullets in the eye! Yes it will cost money. So will cleaning up the disaster we are about to experience. Retirement funds alone lost as the market crashes for no good reason. The outcome will be the outcome but we will never know unless we count the ballots.
MichMan
(13,916 posts)After the first $41,300 goes to the DNC, they will apply the next $3,300 towards any recount. Once they get enough people to contribute, they can start the recount effort.
Direct from the Harris campaign website.
The fundraising page says that the “first $41,300/$15,000 from a person/multicandidate committee (“PAC”) will be allocated to the DNC. The next $3,300/$5,000 from a person/PAC will be allocated to Harris for President's Recount Account."
https://kamalaharris.com/
Already raised over a billion dollars before the election and said they would use a portion of that. They need to use it, they should not need more.
Count the ballots!!
tritsofme
(18,841 posts)keepthemhonestO
(461 posts)Were counted by a machine which no one is privy to the algorithm used except the owners of said company. They were counted in the dark, in other words.
tritsofme
(18,841 posts)Hope22
(3,385 posts)Where are the results. We have gone into December some elections while the ballots continued to be counted. A recount of the battleground states has not been done! Please post the results here!
tritsofme
(18,841 posts)Or based on baseless conspiracy theories.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)The billion is gone, and the party is still in debt from this election.
Hope22
(3,385 posts)more. I did donate every month to multiple Dems. If she needs money to do this she will be the first to ask. This election was a record for funds poured down the drain if they do not do their best to certify the results. . And I would like to say that your comment is garbage. Really what in the actual! I’m old enough to have watched several would be Presidents ask for money but were non existent on the recount commitment. We need a leader and Harris said she would be that. Come out and say what the issues are. Not throwing any more money until we know there is a plan!
Tweedy
(1,241 posts)We know this.
onenote
(44,914 posts)I have not seen any of the official election sites reporting such information.
Arizona is reporting 3,378,651 ballots in the presidential race and 3,337,566 in the senate race, a difference of 41,085 or 1.2% -- where does 7% come from? And even then, there is no way of knowing whether there were ballots cast in the presidential race, but not the Senate race, but in any of the House races. And, the difference in the number of ballots counted in the presidential and senate races in Arizona in 2024 is almost identical to the difference in the number of ballots counted in the presidential and senate races in 2020 -- 1.216% in 2024 and 1.239% in 2020.
Similarly, Nevada is reporting 1,484,840 ballots in the presidential race and 1,464,728 in the senate race, a difference of 20,112 or 1.35% -- not 5%.
I'm not going to compare you with Q'Anon. But you are blindly accepting and repeating allegations of "bullet ballots" for which there is no factual evidence -- indeed, the facts available resoundingly rebut those allegations.
This has been pointed out several time here. I've said that if someone can provide an explanation as to how anyone came up with these alleged bullet ballot counts and how they can be squared with the actual voting data available, I'm open to hearing it. The ball is in your court.
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)And expectations of verifiable evidence.
onenote
(44,914 posts)I refused to blindly accept those claims and I won't blindly accept these.
I've repeatedly said i'm open to someone answering the following questions:
How did Spoonamore come up with his number of "bullet ballots"?
How does he explain how his numbers can be squared with the reported difference in the number of total presidential race ballots and the total number of non-presidential race ballots for statewide offices like senate or governor?
No one has even tried to answer those questions. They argue that just making the claim, even though the data doesn't support it, is enough and that the way to get an answer is to hand count every ballot and separate out those that only show a vote for a single contest. Something Spoonamore obviously hasn't done.
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)Somehow, maybe with Musk’s help, MTG figured out how to reverse the Jewish Space Lasers so that they flipped Harris votes to Trump.
Prove me wrong.
Frank D. Lincoln
(866 posts)Bear in mind that I'm not arguing against what you've been stating.
But regarding Stephen Spoonamore (a staunch Republican), I don't know what his motive would be in just making this up out of whole cloth if he knew he could easily be proven wrong. Why bother? What does he get out of it by doing that? Plus, he's stated that he's open to being proven wrong by a recount. But he seems to genuinely believe that he'll be proven right that this election was stolen from Harris.
And regarding Spoonamore's letter to Kamala Harris, he wrote this:
So, although Duncan Buell and the other six people involved with the November 13 letter don't think there were shenanigans that changed the outcome of the election, they did cite their reasons that Kamala Harris should request a hand-recount in the states they mentioned. Spoonamore believes that there were shenanigans that did affect the outcome of the election. Where Spoonamore and the others agree is that Harris should request hand-recounts.
Given that our democracy hangs in the balance, arguing back and forth about the credibility of Spoonamore's claim is just a distraction from the more important point: Kamala Harris should request hand-recounts in the battleground states.
There is at least a chance no matter how small that it might keep Trump from regaining power.
Without a hand-recount, Trump will regain the White House for sure and the results will be almost unthinkable in terms of the horror and misery it will inflict on untold millions of people.
Igel
(36,485 posts)Why?
Because it must. For the claim to be true.
And the claim must be true. There. QED.
Just a much higher percentage in the swing states.,
https://open.substack.com/pub/spoonamore/p/duty-to-warn-letter-to-vp-harris?selection=0ba74aad-ddcf-4c27-8825-0fe28680c0ee&r=d569l&utm_medium=ios
DooverBeliever
(18 posts)How are those votes included in the numbers? I'm not trying to argue, just to understand. I know a lot of people who said they were only voting for the down-ballot races. So, those votes would offset the bullet ballot count in the total analysis to determine the percentages.
I agree with you; I'd love to see a detailed breakdown of the numbers. Where can we find those statistics to analyze?
onenote
(44,914 posts)The fact that some voters didn't vote for anyone in the presidential race doesn't impact that claim at all.
DooverBeliever
(18 posts)Ugh. yeah.. we need facts.
Many of us are still in shock and hoping for an answer, and maybe this isn't it. I am sure Kamala's experts have/are analyzing the data and will make the correct decision.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)
MineralMan
(148,299 posts)You post numbers, but not the sources for those numbers. Can you tell us where the numbers came from. I've seen different numbers, directly from the state's election offices. Are those numbers wrong?
Nobody's calling you Qanon or anything else. But we have questions that remain unanswered.
onenote
(44,914 posts)You'll have to do some math: adding up the total votes cast in the presidential and senate races. Subtracting the latter from the former. And dividing the difference by the number of votes cast in the presidential race.
Here are the links:
Arizona 2024 presidential and Senate: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/47/0
Arizona 2020 presidential and Senate: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0
In each instance, you'll have click on the "view more" line for each race and then get out your calculator and add up the votes.
Nevada 2024 presidential race: https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/USPresidential/index.shtml
Nevada 2024 senate race: https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/USSenate/#race2
And here's Virginia, in case you want to see a state that Harris won.
https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/Virginia/elections/2024NovemberGeneral
MineralMan
(148,299 posts)The numbers weren't even close to what was claimed, as you pointed out. I want to hear from the OP.
I'm asking him.
onenote
(44,914 posts)Or from Sponamore himself. But I'm not holding my breath.
Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)There were 2.2% more votes cast for President than Senate candidates.
Checked the numbers several times.
Without know what data this guy is using, how can his claims be verified? Where are his numbers coming from?
The final Arizona tally is not yet certified and published, but you'd need an awful lot of new bullet ballots lurking around somewhere that only this guy apparently knows about.
Edit: I can't read numbers gud. I actually got 1.2% in my calculations from publicly available data.
onenote
(44,914 posts)Arizona 2024: Total presidential race votes minus total senate race votes: 3,378,651 minus 3,337,566 = 41,085. Percentage of total presidential votes exceeding total senate votes: 41,085 divided by 3,378,651 = .01216
Arizona 2024: Total presidential race votes minus total senate race votes: 3,397,388 minus 3,355,297 = 42,091. Percentage of total presidential votes exceeding total senate votes: 42,091 divided by 3,397,388 = .01238
Are you using the total number of votes cast in the presidential race or just the number cast for Trump and Harris and excluding 3rd parties? Using the latter would push the percentage up over 2% but wouldn't accurately portray the number of ballots with only the presidential race selected.
Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)I read 0.987839 as 2.2% difference for some reason when it should be 1.2% (rounded).
I'd just like to point out - because it made me laugh - that you and I just did more to share data sources and methodologies to verify numbers in this exchange of posts than this guy has done so far in all his media appearances.
onenote
(44,914 posts)The data is there for anyone to check.
Rikki Tikki Tumbo
(3 posts)...and framkly, you guys are not experts in the field. Spoonamore is. Full stop.
If you actually read his letter, you would see that he references "bullet ballots", but also "undervote" ballots. So, you cannot use simple math to come to your conclusion as you are only looking at differences between total, and senate, and claiming no foul is evident.
A paper ballot count would reveal if there were more electronic tabulations than paper ballots received. That is the crux of his argument.
He also points out that Musk's lottery enabled him to gather names and addresses of Trump leaning people in particular districts so that they could possibly compare that list against voters that did not vote, thus allowing their vote to be compromised by a bullet, or undervote ballot.
Simple math is not going to help you discover if games were played.
Leave it to the experts, and our legal processes.
onenote
(44,914 posts)In fact, "if you actually read his letter," he uses the term "undervote" exactly once, in a heading that reads "The Tell: A Historically Absurd Number of Trump-Only Bullet Ballots or Undervotes." His use of the word "or" rather than "and" is telling, particularly since he goes on to be very specific in that he is talking about one, and only one, particular category of undervote, namely a "bullet ballot." He nowhere discusses the other types of undervotes or uses that term anywhere in his letter.
To explain further, an undervote occurs when the number of choices selected by a voter in an election is less than the maximum number allowed for that election. So it is an undervote if there are five races and someone doesn't cast a vote in all of them. The term "bullet ballot" is used to refer to a specific category of undervote -- the one where a voter only casts a vote for one election where there is more than one on the ballot. That is the category of undervote Spoonamore's letter is about. Not undervotes where someone, on a ballot with multiple races, voted not merely in the presidential race but also in some of the other races on the ballot, but not every one of them.
And, when it comes to bullet ballots, mathematically, his assertions do not survive even basic scrutiny. If 5,592,243 votes were cast in the Governor's race, it is not possible for the presidential race count of 5,699,862 to include 350,000 votes that weren't cast in the governor's race.
Spoonamare's letter makes no effort to explain how he comes up with his 350,000 vote claim. It's not surprising because it doesn't add up and he doesn't have access to any information that would allow him to calculate how many bullet ballots were cast in any race, let alone how many were cast for Trump. All the numbers show is that the maximum number of bullet ballots cast for Trump can't exceed the difference in the total number of votes in the presidential race and the total number of votes cast in the governor's race.
Indeed, Spoonamore's illogic is on display when he tries to compare his plucked from thin air numbers to what he says is the usual number of bullet ballots -- a number that is based on how many voters only bother to vote in a presidential race and ignore all other races.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)against tabulator numbers...that's basic Election Integrity 101.
In the precincts I've worked in, we compare ballot counts, tabulator totals, and voter check-ins every hour, just to ensure that things don't go sideways.
onenote
(44,914 posts)Which is what Spoonamore has done.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)He’s a whackadoo, IMO.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)I calculated for four different states - Arizona, Nevada, Utah (red state), and Virginia, (blue state).
As expected, none of this 5% & 7% BS pans out when looking at the actual numbers.
Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)And without knowing where he's pulled his numbers from, no one else can either.
So I guess we're going on faith. Which I'm told is typically how one does math.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)Because it's bullshit.
Wiz Imp
(3,099 posts)SCantiGOP
(14,338 posts)And the rest of the post doesn’t get any more convincing.
Straw Man
(6,823 posts)Yes, it would. And it is. We're talking about low-information MAGAs here. Don't overestimate them.
MineralMan
(148,299 posts)Maybe just one race or a couple. Often, they don't look any further than the races that get lots of publicity, and just skip the rest.
It's difficult, for example, to get good information on a long list of candidates for a local school board. Often there's no advertising at all for those races. So, many people don't vote for anyone on the list.
Same thing applies to things like district judges. This year, all of the judges in my large urban county had to run for re-election. Most were unopposed. Most voters just skip over all of those votes. So, the count of total votes differs from race to race. Every time.
Some vote just for President. Some also vote for a Senator and maybe even a House member. Fewer vote for state legislative candidates. Fewer still for local races, like city council, etc. the number of votes goes down the farther down the ballot you look.
This year the only race that mattered to a heckuva lot of new voters was the Presidency. A good number of people only voted in that race. 1% or 2% wouldn't surprise me at all. Or even more in some cases.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)any citations for the 5% & 7% bullet ballot claim?
I've looked online for anything from the states that mention this, and have thus far found nothing. I'd be interested in seeing an actual state entity making this claim or providing this information.
MineralMan
(148,299 posts)we'd have seen them. Every time this comes up, people ask where the numbers came from. Crickets is all they get as answers.
I suspect they're either made up numbers or some misinterpretation of some numbers. But, we don't know, because nobody will reveal their sources or cite their sources so we can all go check them.
I always wonder about numbers without citations. I don't pay attention to them until they're verified.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)I figured it would be pretty easy to calculate the numbers based on the state election sites... As expected, numbers cited on the podcast and then re-posted here are nowhere close to true.
If any of the assumptions I make below are incorrect, or if my math is off, I welcome any and all corrections.
We've been told that the definition of a bullet ballot in this context is one in which there is only a Presidential vote, and no votes for any other race on the ballot.
From the Nevada election site https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/
Votes for President:
Trump 751,205
Harris 705,197
Other 28,438
Total: 1,484,840
So, for Nevada to have 5% of their ballots be bullet ballots in Trump's favor, that means that 37,560 ballots would have had to have a Trump vote only, with no other votes on them.
The Senate race for Nevada recorded a total of 1,464,728 votes, a difference of 20,112 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.35%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.68%.
Neither number is near 5%.
OK, but what about Arizona?
From the Arizona election site https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/47/0
Votes for President:
Trump 1,764,862
Harris 1,577,729
Other 36,060
Total: 3,378,651
So, for Arizona to have 7% of their ballots be bullet ballots in Trump's favor, that means that 123,540 ballots would have had to have a Trump vote only, with no other votes on them.
The Senate race for Arizona recorded a total of 3,337,566 votes, a difference of 41,085 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.22%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.33%.
Neither number is near 7%.
OK, but what about Utah? I mean their "bullet ballot" total was way less!
Was it?
From the Utah election site https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/utah/elections/general11052024
Votes for President:
Trump 874,138
Harris 587,646
Other 41,773
Total: 1,473,557
The Senate race for Utah recorded a total of 1,449,577 votes , a difference of 23,980 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.63%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.74%.
OK, but Utah is a red state, so they had no need to try to cheat on the vote. I bet there are "bullet ballots" in blue states they wanted to win, like Virginia.
Let's see
From the Virginia election site https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/Virginia/elections/2024NovemberGeneral
Votes for President:
Trump 2,074,872
Harris 2,334,800
Other 95,424
Total: 4,505,096
The Senate race for Virginia recorded a total of 4,444,713 votes, a difference of 95,424 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.34%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.91%
All of this is to say that unless the podcasters are actually providing citations for their numbers, that can be viewed by anyone, they're simply pedaling bullshit to desperate people. In other words, intentional misinformation
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)And when I add the "Other" for the three biggest counties in Nevada (based on the vote totals), I get 24,930...no idea what you're looking at or adding up.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)Last edited Tue Nov 19, 2024, 05:03 PM - Edit history (1)
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)No idea what you're looking at - I have the page open, and I'm not seeing those numbers at all.
First row (which adds up all the counties):
None: 19,625
LPN: 6,059
IAP: 2,754
Total: 28,438
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)I totally get it! I did the same thing yesterday.
No harm, no foul.
questionseverything
(10,377 posts)Kid Berwyn
(18,892 posts)It feels weird, all right. Shocking to read so many on DU post, “We lost! Move on! Get over it! Nothing was funny about the election.”
It’s as if they don’t remember Russia helped Trump in 2016 and 2020, let alone all the other treasonous crap Trump has done since, such as ordering a mob to attack Congress and threatening to kill his critics, now assisted by the world’s richest person, coincidentally also a friend and supplier of Putin’s.
No matter the results, rationale or data: Fucking feels like a coup, to me.
HereForTheParty
(521 posts)And the point remains, there is absolutely no evidence for this bullet ballot nonsense. Hearkening back to 2020 doesn't change that.
Kid Berwyn
(18,892 posts)
1968 - Nixon-Agnew dealt with North Vietnam to sabotage Paris peace talks
1980 - Reagan-Bush dealt with Ayatollah hostage takers
1988 - Bush pardons Weinberger and other Iran-Contra traitors to avoid trial and exposing his own role
2000 - Bush-Cheney count on GOP-leaning Supreme Court to “win” Florida and, thus, US election
2016 - Trump calls on Russia for help to defeat Hillary Clinton
The record is clear: In Presidential election after Presidential election, Republicans get away with treason. And thanks to the SCrOTUS they packed, it’s all been turned legal-like.
And after they “win,” We the People are told to, “Move on.” And the GOP gets away with it, again.
KS Toronado
(20,147 posts)and are busy investigating how, when & where to take action. Plus I'm not worried they haven't made
a public statement yet, sometimes timing is everything and I'm sure they have their reasons.. 
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)From Wikipedia:
This philosophical razor advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction and both hypotheses have equal explanatory power, one should prefer the hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions,[4] and that this is not meant to be a way of choosing between hypotheses that make different predictions. Similarly, in science, Occam's razor is used as an abductive heuristic in the development of theoretical models rather than as a rigorous arbiter between candidate models.[5][6]
When you proclaim “something stinks, there’s a good chance it’s rotten”, you are making numerous unspoken assumptions.
When I drive to the ferry terminal, I always smell something rotten and moldy, however, there isn’t anything rotten, it’s just the smell of the cedar lumber mill.
bluestarone
(18,585 posts)On the numbers. Hell i know for a fact that everyone here would be asking for a recount IF numbers are proven. We have some very smart people on this site. Why would you not believe them if the numbers that your source uses cannot be proven. Marc Ellis is no dummy so man please find the PROOF and come back with it. 
Speaks2
(87 posts)2020 deniers take election theft as a matter of faith. They provided no evidence and offered no opportunity to refute their position. Basically, they said "these things are possible" and "everyone knows Dems cheated." QED
In 2024, we're not doing that. We're being offered a means of testing the hypothesis that theft occurred and a way to refute the mechanism being conjectured.
That's a completely different thing!
HereForTheParty
(521 posts)Nm
keepthemhonestO
(461 posts)Thank you for keeping this topic front and center.
I think the people on our side naysaying this, are very naive. It's trump, it's the highest office in the land I am no statistician or mathematical genius but you don't have to in order to see all of these irregularities. Slap!!
For the last four years, I would cringe when I heard the Democrats saying we have secure elections blah blah blah. Democrats need to wake the fuck up and stop taking this lying down.
These ballots are being counted in secret( in a box) that we don't know how they are counted, also we are one of the few " Democracies " ( if we can use that anymore) to not hand count. Sorry it takes to fucking long to hand count in order to preserve our Democracy. Ahh well it's too late.
Doodley
(10,473 posts)That welcome to little ole me? I've been here 24 years or so, mostly just ghost read. Used to be keepthemhonest but got locked out
Thanks btw. ☺️
EdmondDantes_
(215 posts)Also the guy has never said where he got the number of bullet ballots. His numbers in North Carolina don't make sense for example. He claims 350,000 of them, but the difference between the presidential race and the governor's race was fewer than 90,000 votes.
Viz
(61 posts)There have been 2 raids since the election. One was executed by an agency of DOD, DO, CIA and IRS called Defense Criminal Investigative Service (DCIS) on a prominent Trump supporter whose business and home were raided. DCIS focuses on Defense related and cyber security, and terrorism funding. The second raid was for the Polymarket founder, who ran the organization that was betting on the election. We heard about them during the last days of the campaign as their bets were being covered along with the latest poll results.
I suspect that both VP Harris and President Biden are working a sting operation as they investigate the fraudsters.
Let's see what happens with the hand recounts required by PA law for the Senate race. The recount must start by Nov 20 and end by Nov 26.
MichMan
(13,916 posts)The U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick is headed for a statewide recount, as counties continued Wednesday to sort through outstanding ballots and the campaigns jousted over which ones should count.
A noon deadline passed Wednesday for Casey to waive his right to a statewide recount and Secretary of State Al Schmidt, a Republican, announced that preliminary results had triggered a legally required statewide recount.
Counties must begin the recount no later than Nov. 20 and must finish by noon on Nov. 26. It largely involves running paper ballots through high-speed scanners, a process that former election officials say might not change the outcome by more than a few hundred votes.
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/decision-2024/pa-senate-contest-recount/4027882/
Viz
(61 posts)There have been 2 raids since the election. One was executed by an agency of DOD, DOJ, CIA and IRS called Defense Criminal Investigative Service (DCIS) on a prominent Trump supporter whose business and home were raided. DCIS focuses on Defense related and cyber security, and terrorism funding. The second raid was for the Polymarket founder, who ran the organization that was betting on the election. We heard about them during the last days of the campaign as their bets were being covered along with the latest poll results.
I suspect that both VP Harris and President Biden are working a sting operation as they investigate the fraudsters.
Let's see what happens with the hand recounts required by PA law for the Senate race. The recount must start by Nov 20 and end by Nov 26.
HereForTheParty
(521 posts)Do you have links or names? I mean, your first one is just identified as a "Trump supporter".
Think. Again.
(20,749 posts)Orange Buffoon
(212 posts)in a conservative area. She was astounded to see voter after voter come in, mark their ballot for Trump only, then leave without filling out the rest of it.
oldmanlynn
(554 posts)I don’t think that that would be allowed for a pole watcher to sit there and look over voters shoulder
yellowdogintexas
(22,934 posts)As an Election Judge, I can throw them out if they do. They know this when they come in; we have a required class for poll watchers, and they have to present their certifications to the Judge. They can ask us questions about our process but they can't talk to voters or get near enough to see anything
Orange Buffoon
(212 posts)oldmanlynn
(554 posts)Not catching it on this election is going to make it a higher probability of this happening again in the future and so if we don’t ask for a recount now and catch it then it’s gonna happen again in 2028
brush
(58,586 posts)Last edited Mon Nov 18, 2024, 07:27 PM - Edit history (1)
Again, investigate how 'bullet ballots' and their one vote got included in the tabulations.
The fact that only one ballot slot, the presidency for trump, was the only one filled out should raise the eye brows of everyone...especially Harris voters.
What's an investigation going to hurt?
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)It happened in states that weren't battlegrounds, and I'm betting it's happened in previous elections as well.
brush
(58,586 posts)That's why they're called the battleground states. They are where who gets the WH is decided as blue states and red states are mostly always secuely in the Democratic Party and rethug party columns.
Understand now?
wryter2000
(47,660 posts)However, I have no trouble believing that lots of brain dead MAGAts only bothered to vote for Trump. They would be more eager to do it in swing states. They might get their friends to do the same.
MichMan
(13,916 posts)Recounts are expensive and hand recounts especially so. The states aren't going to foot the bill, so it would be up to the Harris campaign and the DNC. Both have just announced staff layoffs and terminations in a cost cutting move.
If they don't believe that it will change anything, they see no need to throw more money down a black hole.
Dr. Strange
(26,008 posts)So you start recounting, and then you come up on one of these bullet ballots: someone voted for Trump and no one/nothing else. Are you going to refuse to count that vote because you don't like what the voter did? Are you going to challenge the ballot, and if so, on what basis?
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)A hand recount would do nothing that I can see.
And if the idea is that a hand recount would find that there are many fewer votes actually cast than were included in the count, then the assumption would have to be that every precinct and central election office was in on it, because physical ballots have to be accounted for, and the number of ballots used and the counts submitted have to match.
FakeNoose
(36,394 posts)It would be very expensive and time-consuming to do hand counts in the several states where we have questions. What would we learn? Some voters came to vote only for Chump and nobody else. We have no way to know what party or even if they're in a party. Probably many aren't, and I'm guessing that they are not frequent voters.
It doesn't give enough reason to overturn the election, based on bullet balloting alone.
Response to gab13by13 (Original post)
polichick This message was self-deleted by its author.
ananda
(31,136 posts)Let's prove it one way or another.
Oliver Bolliver Butt
(111 posts)"People don't take the time to vote and only vote for 1 Republican on the ballot, that would be stupid."
What is the single most likely characteristic of Trump's base voter?
soandso
(1,631 posts)I took some random states, some swing states and some not, and compared the difference between the number of votes for president to the number of votes in their senate races. I used Decision Desk for the latest totals.
California
Presidential Votes: 15,104,778
Senate Votes: 14,638,283
Percentage Difference: ((15,104,778 - 14,638,283) / 15,104,778) * 100 ≈ 3.09%
Arizona
Presidential Votes: 3,378,651
Senate Votes: 3,337,566
Percentage Difference: ((3,378,651 - 3,337,566) / 3,378,651) * 100 ≈ 1.22%
New Mexico
Presidential Votes: 923,319
Senate Votes: 903,201
Percentage Difference: ((923,319 - 903,201) / 923,319) * 100 ≈ 2.18%
Minnesota
Presidential Votes: 3,242,938
Senate Votes: 3,186,151
Percentage Difference: ((3,242,938 - 3,186,151) / 3,242,938) * 100 ≈ 1.75%
Wisconsin
Presidential Votes: 3,415,154
Senate Votes: 3,387,420
Percentage Difference: ((3,415,154 - 3,387,420) / 3,415,154) * 100 ≈ 0.81%
Washington
Presidential Votes: 3,845,914
Senate Votes: 3,752,419
Percentage Difference: ((3,845,914 - 3,752,419) / 3,845,914) * 100 ≈ 2.43%
Texas
Presidential Votes: 11,559,607
Senate Votes: 11,269,112
Percentage Difference: ((11,559,607 - 11,269,112) / 11,559,607) * 100 ≈ 2.51%
Pennsylvania
Presidential Votes: 7,025,367
Senate Votes: 6,953,319
Percentage Difference: ((7,025,367 - 6,953,319) / 7,025,367) * 100 ≈ 1.03%
Virginia
Presidential Votes: 4,482,075
Senate Votes: 4,436,419
Percentage Difference: ((4,482,075 - 4,436,419) / 4,482,075) * 100 ≈ 1.02%
Ohio
Presidential Votes: 5,647,668
Senate Votes: 5,585,865
Percentage Difference: ((5,647,668 - 5,585,865) / 5,647,668) * 100 ≈ 1.09%
As you can see, the swing states did NOT have a greater %age difference in top of the ticket and down ballot. In fact, it's California (blue state) that has the greatest discrepancy and Wisconsin (swing state) the lowest.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-Senate/
MadameButterfly
(2,282 posts)though he comes to the same conclusion you do.
Another post claims number of bullets ballots were not high in NC, but that is one of the swings states that are high in the Daily Kos article. Along with Nevada.
I don't know why everyone's numbers are different.
soandso
(1,631 posts)or AP, which are usually identical and constantly updated in real time.
At almost TWO weeks after the election California still hasn't finished counting the votes, 93%, but Kamala is still way ahead, 58.8% to rotted pumpkin 38.1%.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)that a state as advanced as California takes two weeks to count ballots.
soandso
(1,631 posts)and was punished with my post hidden so beware.
Sympthsical
(10,411 posts)16 million people voting, most of them by mail. First you have to wait for them to all come in. A ballot can arrive up to 7 days after election day and be counted. Then they have to be sorted through. And there can be so many errors that involve curing. Like no signatures, using the wrong envelopes, etc. etc.
You want people to be more participant in elections, but it's created this massive headache when it comes to counting, because tabulation, verifying, ruling out duplicates, etc. is an extremely thorough and tedious process they go through. And statute gives the state a long time to do this. I think the curing deadline is like Dec. 1st and other stuff is 30 days after election.
So they're not exactly being prodded to get it done quickly.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,591 posts)I know in Virginia, and in Florida as well, mail-in ballots are processed as they come in, beginning in September here in Virginia...as the mail-in ballots are validated, they are put through the tabulators, but they can't actually access the vote counts until election day. Our ballots have to arrive by noon on the Friday after election, with a postmark NLT election day.
Mail-in ballots can also be dropped off at any precinct on election day. Once the polls close, the very first thing that is done is two poll workers, one from each party, opens the drop-box, count the number of envelopes in the drop box, provide that number to the precinct chief, put the envelopes in a sealed envelope that they and the precinct chief initial, then drive together to drop those ballots at the county election office. Those ballots are then processed while they wait for the individual precincts to shut down and start submitting their numbers.
LilElf70
(654 posts)He made a name for himself. I see him living up to that name.
ConcernedCitizen1776
(19 posts)Steven Spoonamore on The Thom Hartmann Program Live (11/18/2024) - 02:16:30 - 02:28:45 -
https://www.youtube.com/@thomhartmann/videos
https://www.thomhartmann.com/
Stephen Spoonamore - Duty to Warn Letter - to VP Harris - Re: Election 2024 - Nov 15, 2024 - https://substack.com/home/post/p-151721941
ConcernedCitizen1776
(19 posts)Steven Spoonamore on The Thom Hartmann Program Live (11/18/2024) - 02:16:30 - 02:28:45
The Steven Spoonamore interview starts at approx. 02:16:30 to 02:28:45. [link:https://www.youtube.com/live/5s4iCxtf_Js
https://www.youtube.com/@thomhartmann/videos - https://www.thomhartmann.com/
Stephen Spoonamore - Duty to Warn Letter - to VP Harris - Re: Election 2024 - Nov 15, 2024 - https://substack.com/home/post/p-151721941
https://freespeechforpeople.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/letter-to-vp-harris-111324.pdf
November 15, 2024
Honorable VP Kamala Harris
The White House
Office of the Vice President
1600 Pennsylvania Ave
Washington DC 20500
Dear Madam Vice President.
This is my second Duty to Warn Letter regarding hacking of the 2024 Presidential Election. The first letter on November 7 was directed to Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Officials. Both warnings are made per DNI Clapper’s 2015 directive to all agencies and contractors associated with intelligence and financial agency technologies to warn of suspicions of hacking.
Professionally I have worked as the CEO or CTO at seven high technology firms including two which specialized in hacking and counter-hacking operations. My clients have included numerous governments DoD, DHS, Dept. of State, F100 Financials and F500 Industrials.
I am a lifelong Republican who has long placed service and participatory democracy over party. In government, I have twice been invited to SoCom to give lectures on electronic warfare and techniques to find terrorist money laundering and gave a keynote speech of the National Counterintel Summit on this same topic. I served as an after-action reviewer of communications and data failures on 9/11 under the direction of Jim Woolsey and FDNY Commissioner Scopetta, and later co-wrote multiple hacking risk analysis of Smart Grid technologies for the Obama administration.
You should reverse your concession, call for both a full investigation of criminal activity and demand hand recounts in all seven swing states.
In my professional view there are multiple and extremely clear indications the Presidential vote was willfully compromised.
I wholly agree with the public letter of Duncan Buell, et. al. of Nov. 13th stating they believe there is a possibility of hacking and calling for hand-recounts.
https://freespeechforpeople.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/letter-to-vp-harris-111324.pdf
This letter’s clear call to action is commendable, but its cautious tone may belie the severity of what I believe has happened. In my view it is a near certainty the results have been changed at a scale which reversed the US Presidential Election. They imply there is a chance a hand-recount will show you won more votes. I am stating a hand recount will most likely show you did win. Both letters call on you to act.
In my view, a capable and skilled series of exploits, electronic tools and hacks were used to change the Presidential vote in all seven swing states. These activities have reversed the outcomes in at least Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. I will lay out the basics of the attack, starting with unusual elements within the results. I will then outline two processes which could have been followed to insert these false results into the system. Finally I will outline how I would recommend investigating.
Unusual elements within the results.
The results of the attack are improbable in the extreme and well tailored to the sole benefit of your opponent.
Approximately 600,000 votes are for Donald Trump but with no down ballot choices. These are either inserted “bullet ballots” for the Presidential race or manipulated data fields. They are surgically added to totals in limited jurisdictions and within only the seven swing States. This historically unprecedented set of numbers found in the 2024 swing states is absent in every other state. In AZ, MI, NC and WI the effect of these drop-off votes reverses the voters' will and even more improbably always pushes the winning margin beyond the mandatory recount numbers. It is a result too perfect for belief. It is a bespoke and programmed outcome. In other states including PA and NV, removing these strange and bespoke added votes, it appears Donald Trump may have won the cast votes but within a margin which would force recounts. The inserted votes raise his totals, to avoid any scrutiny during mandatory recount results which would have slowed his claim on the Presidency. In GA and FL the same pattern exists with unclear impact on the results.
This attack is not technically difficult. It is modest in scale. It would require:
Modest and common computer programming skills.
Access to 10-100 tabulators or to the handful of facilities programming them in advance.
A credible database of voter IDs of non-voters around which to create false ballots.
Perhaps as few as 1, but more likely 3-5 human program managers.
Access to eBollBook Data during the election to determine who had not voted.
(Possibly) Human access to some tabulators during counting.
If I was asked to lead this hack, I would expect to have a core team of 6-10 people, and operating costs under $10M with a timeline of 3-12 months.
The tell: A historically absurd number of Trump-only bullet ballots or undervote ballots.
There are always a handful of voters who cast a vote in one race which they care about, and do not make other selections on the ballot. These are called bullet ballots. In Presidential Races since 1980, these bullet ballots rarely account for more than 1% of the total votes including in Mr. Trump’s winning 2016 election and losing 2020 election, and when they do it warrants further investigation. In 2024 in the 43 non-swing states, bullet ballots make up a nominal >1%. In the seven swing states the numbers are so high to be unbelievable, unprecedented and demanding of further investigation. Here is analysis from totals as of late Nov. 12th
Here are the unprecedented results of drop-offs in the two western swing states:
AZ - 123K+ 7.2%+ of Trump’s total vote. Enough to reverse the outcome.
NV - 43K+ 5.5%+ of Trump’s total vote. Enough to exceed recount threshold.
It is my belief these two states have illegally added votes.
For comparison, examine Trump’s 2024 results in three states which border AZ and NV. They have equally passionate Trump supporters, but have the normal levels of drop off or bullet ballots.
ID
ConcernedCitizen1776
(19 posts)Data Scientist's Shocking Call for Election Recount Raises Scary Questions! w/ Stephen Spoonamore
link:
[ link: https://wwwDOTyoutubeDOTcom/watch?v=RJR5uQpweko ]
The Steven Spoonamore interview starts at approx. 02:16:30 to 02:28:45. [link:https://www.youtube.com/live/5s4iCxtf_Js
https://www.youtube.com/@thomhartmann/videos - https://www.thomhartmann.com/
Stephen Spoonamore - Duty to Warn Letter - to VP Harris - Re: Election 2024 - Nov 15, 2024 - https://substack.com/home/post/p-151721941
https://freespeechforpeople.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/letter-to-vp-harris-111324.pdf
ultralite001
(1,277 posts)Last edited Mon Nov 18, 2024, 06:14 PM - Edit history (1)
2024 United States elections
[link:https://www.youtube.com/live/5s4iCxtf_Js
The Spoonamore interview is in the third hour at the 2:16:23 mark on the video.
Fascinating stuff...
muriel_volestrangler
(102,865 posts)So that's not a huge difference.
Sources:
https://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2020gen/USPresidential/
https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/USPresidential/
2020 House Rep races:
223213 137868 74490 6190 4665
382673 216078 155780 10815
417252 203421 190975 12315 10541
332469 168457 152284 7978 3750
1355607
2020 Pres votes:
1405376 703486 669890 14783 14079 3138
2024 House Rep races:
322899 167885 143650 3321 2736 2711 2596
399584 219919 144064 19784 15817
372388 191304 181084
332206 174926 148061 4919 4300
1427077
2024 Pres votes:
1484840 751205 705197 19625 6059 2754
1355607/1405376 = 96.5%; 1427077/1484840 = 96.1%
So why is a rate of 3.9% voting for president but not a rep suspicious to you in 2024, but 3.5% in 2020 wasn't? Is that really a big enough difference to "stink"?
krkaufman
(13,770 posts)... given that is a prime characteristic of the likely Trump voter.
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/400572/its-the-stupid-stupid.html (ref'd IPSOS poll)
SheltieLover
(61,280 posts)
Progressive dog
(7,319 posts)different field than statistics pertaining to elections, isn't it? He needs to provide real data, not just claims.
Do the states report how many bullet ballots? I don't think so.
Beck23
(310 posts)Did you know there is such a thing as a log file that stores info about what has changed on a computer? I'd like to see him be able to examine the log files.
Progressive dog
(7,319 posts)know that if you have access to administration. you can remove those log files. I'm not sure how you think election security works, but there are multiple records which can be checked against each other.
Where's the data? In his/her imagination is where it resides.
Nimble_Idea
(2,494 posts)
hurple
(1,331 posts)I can say there ARE lots of MAGAt voters who vote ONLY for trump and walk. These are typically the HARD CORE cultists and they are there for one reason and one reason only, to put god-emperor Trump on the throme where he belongs, "seig hiel."
They usually don't know anything about any other race and ignore them completely. Even local.
They are morons and absolutely look the part.
It should be of grave concern as to just how secure/monitored all state ballots are, and have been these last few weeks. What's even more vital is there should be eagle-eyed scrutiny involving all individuals responsible for the handling and safekeeping of every ballot.
It should be vitally important to everyone as to just how resigned most have been in regard to those final results. Has it not been utter chaos following Trump's every move now for the last 10 years?
I was shouting from the rooftops, leading up to the election, about how our very institutions of Trust and principles were the very things the nature of this Trumpian way has been exploiting all along the way! In Trump's world, he refers to the faithful and trusting as suckers and losers. Does anyone get that? Do you get it now?
Why this worldclass racket has been so successful is because of all the misinformational, highly polarizing, sleaze-propaganda thats been algorithmically propagated via social media in regard to the Maga/Qanon movement, over this last decade. And yes... The Russians played a strong hand in that very thing! It has been indoctrinating so many devotees to the point of subversion. There are literally millions of people devoted to emotionally charged false information, they could be present in any situation or employment stratosphere. They're peppered all throughout society. That they may have infiltrated the institutions of our free and fair elections, should be up for consideration.
Clouds Passing
(3,418 posts)Why are the Ds so willing to give away our democracy without a question?
MichMan
(13,916 posts)Costs which have to be paid by whomever has standing to request one.
Why throw more money down a black hole?
Clouds Passing
(3,418 posts)
MichMan
(13,916 posts)Clouds Passing
(3,418 posts)MichMan
(13,916 posts)For example, Trump is leading Harris by 80,000 votes in Michigan with a margin of 1.4%
The margin of victory in the Franken/Coleman Minnesota Senate race in 2008 was 0.01%
I've seen post after post saying that there should be a recount "because" and "why not", yet people are expecting someone else to foot the bill. Easy to spend someone else's money on something that has zero hope of succeeding. Might as well throw it in a black hole.
Clouds Passing
(3,418 posts)
MichMan
(13,916 posts)For example, Trump is leading Harris in Michigan with a margin of 1.4%. That is approx. 80,000 votes. In Wisconsin the margin is 30,000 votes.
After the 2016 election, Jill Stein initiated recounts in several states. On November 29, after Stein paid $3.5 million needed to initiate a recount, the Wisconsin Elections Commission ordered a recount in the state to begin on December 1. Wisconsin's recount was completed and its results certified early on December 12. Clinton increased her vote total in the state by 713 votes, while Trump increased his by 844, widening his lead by 131 votes over the original November 8 count and reaffirming his victory.
$3.5 million spent by Stein (much of it donated by people on DU) in just one state in 2016 to gain 131 votes for Trump. Given that Trump is leading by 30,000 to 180,000 votes in each of the swing states, why would anyone think this would be successful and worth the expense?
JR11
(78 posts)If you haven't figured it out by now, the internet has been weaponized with electronically enhanced psychological warfare... and it's been employed where it counts... in matters of power and position.
Jeebo
(2,354 posts)... but, we all have to know that it's a Hail Mary at this point.
— Ron
kimbutgar
(23,917 posts)And I remember that one could change how things are tabulated by coding software.
I agree we need a hand recount in those swing states. It’s just too coincidental he won all of them. If we don’t catch them now they will perfect and do it going forward and maintain total control.
And I just can’t believe the American people Black, Hispanic, Muslim and Asian people went for him when all he did was attack minorities.
DiamondShark
(1,115 posts)There are many open across the country. I implore anyone questioning our election integrity to join the public workers securing our elections against bad actors.
garybeck
(10,047 posts)I've seen people question the numbers from Spoonamore, but not any solid response or confirmation.
Beck23
(310 posts)Chadarius
(4 posts)We will compare you to Q. This is conspiracy drivel. We have all had quite enough. 10 million people that needed to vote, just didn't. Plain and simple. THAT is Occam's Razor.
FYI, there are millions people that "built their own hardware". That is also drivel. I'm not impressed.
LaMouffette
(2,351 posts)will happen in the midterms in two years and in the next presidential race in four years?
If Musk and Putin's cyber warfare team have figured out a way to flip votes or cast fake votes, they will be certain to do it again in the coming elections, especially if Democrats accept the fishy election results and turn a blind eye to anything weird about the ballots cast out of fear of being conspiracy theorists.
Plus, next time around, if the bullet ballots theory is true, they will correct that tell-tale mistake and cast full ballots instead of these eye-raising single-vote ballots. They will "learn their lesson" and fine-tune their cheating methods to get even more Republicans illegally voted into office.
And if Kamala announces she has sufficient reason to believe that an election hacking occurred and asks us to donate to the effort, then I think it would not be that big of an ask, especially if her celebrity endorsers chip in.
Botany
(72,922 posts)Spoonamore was spot on about the use of a “man in the middle” program in 2004 in Ohio
to temporarily park votes with a third party candidate that could be then “called in” as needed
to assure a w victory. The exit polls showed an easy Kerry victory but when the “real vote”
came in w was winner.
sellitman
(11,692 posts)This doesn't pass the smell test.
At least she has to look.
Beck23
(310 posts)Is if you think the Jan 6 rioters were tourists. I mean those nice people eould NEVER think of rigging an election, would they?
Pacifist Patriot
(24,914 posts)by highly targeted propaganda via social media and right wing bubble outlets and operators. We know folks in swing states were subjected to even more of this than they were in 2016 and again in 2020. It has gotten more and more sophisticated every year. I honestly would not be surprised if the messaging was designed to ensure a vote for Trump and didn't bother providing guidance for any other race.
progressoid
(50,897 posts)Can I go on TV?
ultralite001
(1,277 posts)"Risk-limiting audits are the highest standard of comprehensive election audits, not just here in Pennsylvania, but across the country," Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt said. "The RLA process provides a statistically sound, scientific method for confirming that the reported outcome of the election is accurate."
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dos/newsroom/department-of-state-begins-risk-limiting-audit-of-2024-general-e.html]