Have we really let it get this bad?

[Think. Again.]

How Societal Collapse Can Save Humans From Mass Extinction

by Change Oracle November 18, 2024
Source: https://changeoracle.com/2024/11/18/how-societal-collapse-can-save-humans-from-mass-extinction/

-snip-

After centuries of destructive human activities, the fault lines are becoming increasingly apparent. We are systematically destroying the natural world and dismantling the Earth’s interrelated ecosystems. This is abundantly apparent in the rate at which we are transgressing planetary boundaries. The combination of heat, extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and species extinctions, underscore the point. Forests are burning, deserts are expanding and clean water is becoming increasingly scarce. The oceans are being subjected to the triple threat of acidification, warming, and anoxia. Coral reefs are dying and fisheries are collapsing. Sea ice is melting, and sea levels are rising.

The preoccupation with growth inherent in the economics of neoliberal globalism is driving environmental destruction and unraveling the social fabric. Rapid economic and social changes have undermined the collective sense of meaning, purpose, and identity that once used to unite societies. This makes people vulnerable to exploitation by those who seek to exacerbate divisions and fan the flames of conflict.

Nefarious actors are using technology to advance their agendas and politicians are exacerbating the problems as part of their cynical pursuit of power. They use AI and digital technology to promote xenophobia and fuel hatred for a fabricated enemy. The goal is to control popular narratives and influence electoral outcomes. Their strategically targeted campaigns of disinformation known as big nudging, exponentially increase their ability to manipulate public perceptions and behavior.

Authoritarian political movements are recycling the age-old strategy of divide and conquer. As explained by the Power Shift Network, they are trying to break down the unity between groups struggling for justice to maintain the status quo.

-snip-

Full article: https://changeoracle.com/2024/11/18/how-societal-collapse-can-save-humans-from-mass-extinction/

[Jit423]

1. 'What do you mean "we," white man?' (Tonto)

[Think. Again.]

2. Point taken. And Thank You.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Sorry Tonto

Nobody’s getting out of this one.

[Towlie]

10. Came here to say that.

But the truth is that we did let this happen. The question is whether there was anything more we could have done to prevent it.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Yes. We could have. We failed to.

In 1965, Johnson received a scientific report from his advisors on polution, an appendix dealt specifically with carbon dioxide.

…

CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS

Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years. The CO₂ produced by this combustion is being injected into the atmosphere; about half of it remains there. The estimated recoverable reserves of fossil fuels are sufficient to produce nearly a 200% increase in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere.

By the year 2000 the increase in atmospheric CO₂ will be close to 25 %. This may be sufficient to produce measurable and perhaps marked changes in climate, and will almost certainly cause significant changes in the temperature and other properties of the stratosphere. At present it is impossible to predict these effects quantitatively, but recent advances in mathematical modelling of the atmosphere, using large computers, may allow useful predictions within the next 2 or 3 years.

Such predictions will need to be checked by careful measurements: a series of precise measurements of the CO₂ content in the atmosphere should continue to be made by the U.S. Weather Bureau and its collaborators, at least for the next several decades; studies of the oceanic and biological processes by which CO₂ is removed from and added to the atmosphere should be broadened and intensified; temperatures at different heights in the stratosphere should be monitored on a worldwide basis.

The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO₂ content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings. The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore need to be thoroughly explored. A change in the radiation balance in the opposite direction to that which might result from the increase of atmospheric CO₂ could be produced by raising the albedo, or reflectivity, of the earth. Such a change in albedo could be brought about, for example by spreading very small reflecting particles over large oceanic areas. The particles should be sufficiently buoyant so that they will remain close to the sea surface and they should have a high reflectivity, so that even a partial covering of the surface would be adequate to produce a marked change in the amount of reflected sunlight. Rough estimates indicate that enough particles partially to cover a square niile could be produced for perhaps one hundred dollars. Thus a 1 % change in reflectivity might be brought about for about 500 million dollars a year, particularly if the reflecting particles were spread in low latitudes, where the incoming radiation is concentrated. Considering the extraordinary economic and human importance of climate, costs of this magnitude do not seem excessive. An early development of the needed technology might have other uses, for example in inhibiting the formation of hurricanes in tropical oceanic areas.

According to Manabe and Strickler (1964) the absorption and re-radiation of infrared by high cirrus clouds (above five miles) tends to heat the atmosphere near the earth's surface. Under some circumstances, injection of condensation or freezing nuclei will cause cirrus clouds to form at high altitudes. This potential method of bringing about climatic changes needs to be investigated as a possible tool for modifying atmospheric circulation in ways which might counteract the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

…

In the six decades since that report was written, the science has improved. In the 70’s public schools taught about the dangers of the “Greenhouse Effect.” It wasn’t controversial. It was science. In those days, we respected science. Ronald Reagan changed that. He told us: "Trees cause more pollution than automobiles do…"

He created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to give governments the power to control the science.

https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/

…

In October 1985, the UN sponsored an international meeting of scientists on climate change in Villach, Austria. Its conclusion: Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases could cause an historic rise in global temperature. This was the first international scientific consensus on climate change and an important turning point, but the key question was, "Could this scientific concern be directed toward leveraging government action worldwide"?

…

US support was probably critical to IPCC’s establishment. And why did the US government support it? Assistant Undersecretary of State Bill Nitze wrote to me a few years later saying that our group’s activities played a significant role. Among other motivations, the US government saw the creation of the IPCC as a way to prevent the activism stimulated by my colleagues and me from controlling the policy agenda.

…

In 2000, George W. Bush ran as a climate skeptic, however, to his credit, he formed a “Cabinet-level working group” who actually turned to the National Academy of Sciences for advice. On June 11th, he gave an address.

https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html

President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change

11:10 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. I've just met with senior members of my administration who are working to develop an effective and science-based approach to addressing the important issues of global climate change.

This is an issue that I know is very important to the nations of Europe, which I will be visiting for the first time as President. The earth's well-being is also an issue important to America. And it's an issue that should be important to every nation in every part of our world.

The issue of climate change respects no border. Its effects cannot be reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology. Climate change, with its potential to impact every corner of the world, is an issue that must be addressed by the world.

…

My Cabinet-level working group has met regularly for the last 10 weeks to review the most recent, most accurate, and most comprehensive science. They have heard from scientists offering a wide spectrum of views. They have reviewed the facts, and they have listened to many theories and suppositions. The working group asked the highly-respected National Academy of Sciences to provide us the most up-to-date information about what is known and about what is not known on the science of climate change.

…

Ironically, exactly 3 months later, he was surprised by a terrorist attack…


The chances to intervene have been numerous.

[Blue_Tires]

5. I stopped reading at "neoliberal globalism"

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Let's check the Encyclopedia...

https://www.britannica.com/money/neoliberal-globalization

neoliberal globalization
Written and fact-checked by The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica

neoliberal globalization, an approach to economic globalization, or the integration of the world’s economies, based on neoliberalism, an ideology and policy model that emphasizes the value of free market competition. Neoliberalism is characterized by a belief in sustained economic growth as the best means to achieve human progress, by a confidence in free markets as the most efficient means of allocating resources, by an emphasis on minimal state intervention in economic and social affairs, and by a commitment to the freedom of trade and capital. The globalization that has taken place since the late 1980s (understood by some economists as a “third” globalization, following the spread of new transportation and communication technologies beginning in the late 19th century and the adoption of an international monetary system in the mid-20th century) has been guided by the neoliberal model, insofar as the national and international economic policies by which it was enabled reflect neoliberal beliefs and values.

Critics of neoliberalism have argued that neoliberal policies effectively aim at raising the profits of private companies by minimizing the costs of investment, reducing or eliminating social welfare programs, and emphasizing economic individualism. With the rise of neoliberalism, they argue, all of society is increasingly dominated and penetrated by a capitalist logic that transforms every aspect of life into a commodity and leads to asymmetrical power relations, both internationally and domestically.

…

[Blue_Tires]

7. I know what it means, and I know how the author is trying to use it

and oddly enough I would still prefer "neoliberal globalization" to "societal collapse" any day of the week. The author presumably lives a pretty comfortable "globalized" life if he can afford to think that way in the first place...

The most eye-opening part is when he blindly assumes there wouldn't also be a mass die-off of humanity with a societal collapse... Nevermind the fact that there's zero fucking guarantee that some magical utopia would emerge from it.

So let him go off the grid and live in some bunker or some abandoned school bus in Alaska -- Oh right, he doesn't want to give up HIS first world amenities, that's strictly for everybody else...

[OKIsItJustMe]

9. James Hansen et al, Global warming in the pipeline

Oxford Open Climate Change, 2023, 3(1), kgad008
https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008
Perspective article

Global warming in the pipeline

…

Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2r) per W/m², which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO₂. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO₂ was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

…

[Blue_Tires]

11. Pretty big gap between "opportunity for reset" and "societal collapse"

And if this past election has taught us anything, it's that young people DO NOT grasp the severity of their situation, sadly...

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. Hmmm... in what way?

What exactly is a societal “reset”?

It seems to me that Hansen et al are proposing an equally radical “solution,” albeit euphemistically.

[Blue_Tires]

14. I thought he was saying "political reset"...

Guess I misread him...

But I still don't understand why these folks want to live in a "Mad Max" universe... 🧐

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. Let's say you read him right

What exactly is a “political reset?” Does that mean that one day, all of the world’s governments step down to be replaced by new forms of government better able to address a global emergency?

Looking at the context,

… Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

No one wants to live in a “Mad Max” universe, however, our current lifestyle is unsustainable. If we do not act rapidly, it will lead to a “Road Warrior” scenario.

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sgsm22255.doc.htm

SG/SM/22255
5 June 2024

Humanity Needs ‘Exit Ramp off Road to Climate Hell’, Secretary-General Insists, Urging Bolder, Faster Action to Save Planet, in Address at American Natural History Museum

Following is UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ special address on climate action, “A Moment of Truth”, to the American Museum of Natural History, in New York today:

Today is World Environment Day. It is also the day that the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reports May 2024 as the hottest May in recorded history.

This marks 12 straight months of the hottest months ever. For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening.

The American Museum of Natural History is the ideal place to make the point. This great Museum tells the amazing story of our natural world. Of the vast forces that have shaped life on Earth over billions of years. Humanity is just one small blip on the radar. But like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, we’re having an outsized impact. In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs. We are the meteor. We are not only in danger. We are the danger. But we are also the solution.

…

So, how do we make rapid, dramatic changes given that three decades of international efforts have produced effectively no progress?

[Blue_Tires]

17. Right now my primary concern is surviving Donnie...

Because thanks to a bunch of useful idiots, he's about to set the climate change movement back 20 years...

[OKIsItJustMe]

19. Sadly, W. and Obama didn't do a lot for the climate

I liked Barack Obama & still do, but he was not exactly a climate champion.

[Blue_Tires]

20. At least Obama didn't actively make things worse

Like Dubya and Donnie...

For the at least next 4 years, the free world is now stuck with a leader who officially believes climate change is a hoax cooked up by Red China, because reasons... And somehow a shocking number of young people still voted for him knowing full well he'd make the situation a hundred times worse... Hell, even Greta Thunberg was pissing all over the Dems on Twitter because she's now all caught up in that Free Palestine agitprop...

Folks are truly losing the plot.

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. Because, you know, Trump will be a godsend to the Palestinians.

This is the man who compared his opponents to Palestinians (and not as a compliment.)

Thank the Russians for this confusion.

https://www.wired.com/story/russia-election-disinformation-2024-election-day/

BY LILY HAY NEWMAN AND TESS OWEN
POLITICS NOV 5, 2024 4:04 PM
Russia Is Going All Out on Election Day Interference
Along with other foreign influence operations—including from Iran—Kremlin-backed campaigns to stoke division and fear have gone into overdrive.

…

In calls with reporters on Monday night and Tuesday, as well as in public statements, US intelligence and law enforcement officials working on election security warned repeatedly that foreign influence actors including Iran, but “particularly Russia,” are ramping up their activity with an “increasing volume of inauthentic content online.” And while officials say they haven't detected cyberattacks beyond floods of junk traffic, or DDoS attacks, attempting to knock election-related sites offline, Russian activity has become increasingly menacing.

…

Well, them and Elon Musk and his friends.

[FirstLight]

8. 6th Great Extinction is already underway...

Who knows if mankind will survive the bottleneck...

The next 20-30 years are gonna be a bumpy ride...might go faster if the AMOC breaks down.

For all the shit going on in our human lives and governments, the Planet is really the thing that controls all of us. And we're burning it up at record pace. I don't have much faith in these "Climate Summits"

Also, since they began making estimations as to what would happen and when, the Earth has consistently proven that their models are far too generous. When the scientists or articles say "in the next 50-100 years" what it really means is withing your lifetime or sooner. I've seen us blow through and past ALL the models since the 80's...

So yeah, the planet has gone through a lot of changes, and not all of them were very hospitable to human life.

[OKIsItJustMe]

13. I'm afraid the odds don't look good for humanity.

In 1965, Johnson was given a reasonably accurate prediction of the year 2000. In the 70’s the science of the “Greenhouse Effect” was taught in the schools, and, in reaction, we burned more fossil fuels.

In 1980, we replaced a genius, who understood the threat, with an actor who assured us that all we needed to do was drill more oil, and that Jelly Bellies™ were the key to happiness. Today, we have elected another showman who assures us all we need to do is drill more…

[H2O Man]

18. Recommended.

It's happening before our eyes.

[DSandra]

21. Fascism is the wealthy elite's way of preserving power in the face of civil unrest

Wealthy elites of Italy and Germany in the 1920's and 30's preferred the fascists over the communists because they got to keep their power. More recently, the younger generations in America are disillusioned with capitalism and neoliberal (right wing) economics, and the wealthy elite are determined to keep their power so they make a fake populist movement that is actually fascist in nature to get a win-win situation and keep real opposition to the system from taking root.