When I saw the last-minute polls, I turned on "all sports all the time" radio on election day
Those polls
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
plus the history of states (and DC) not shown, showed HIM with 268 electoral votes, Harris with 251 (including razor-thin leads in MI and WI) and PA's 19 a toss-up.
I hoped for, but didn't expect, a better outcome.
Instead, Harris lost not only PA, but MI and WI as well.
There are many theories as to what happened.
MY own (partial) theory is that in 2020, at the end of October there were still over 20 million claims a week for various unemployment benefits.
And a lot of people got ballots at home thanks to the pandemic.
So: a lot of people had nothing better to do than go vote, bumping the totals up markedly from 2012 and 2016 levels.
Now, continuing unemployment claims are around 1.6 million a week.
This implies a lot of people have found work (or have left the labor force).
BUT- what sort of work?
Food stocker wages locally (near DC) have risen over the past few years by about 25%.
BUT since 2022, store granola at one store is up by about a third, and the regular price of value-pack boneless chicken breasts went up at that store from $1.99 to 2.99 a pound.
Yes, most of US know that chicken and eggs have been impacted by bird flu, but try telling that to "Jane Sixpack".
Much of my lifetime ago, my economics professor told me people tend to vote their wallets.
My own theory is that some were more concerned with ensuring meat was on the table (at least for Thanksgiving) than going to vote (and losing pay).
There were still more Democratic voters in 2024 than in 2012 and 2016, but it wasn't enough.
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