Question on House 218-211 with 6 undecided. Gaetz quit.

[underpants]

So depending on how the last 6 turn out (Repubs are projected to win at least a couple) and with Gaetz out - do they have the 218 for a majority? Is Gaetz winning his district even though he resigned considered still in their count? Same for Stefanik and Waltz being nominated. I’d guess they’d take their oath and vote on Speaker before resigning but I could be wrong.

[Tadpole Raisin]

1. Is there any term more dire than clusterf*** or sh*tshow?

And in such a short time frame but just starting!!

Well repubs you begged us to stop him for you but didn’t do much to help. Now it’s all on you.

God help us.

[hlthe2b]

2. The question likewise applies to Stefanik and Mike Walz... Are they included in the 218?

--oops I see I missed that in the OP---

So we have the same question...

[underpants]

5. This article sums up the 6. Too complicated to summarize

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-results-2024-seats-undecided/

As I said, I’d think Stefanik and Waltz take their oath, vote on a Speaker, and then resign. That puts them at 215 + whatever they get out of the remaining 6. It could be 218-214 for normal course of business. Of course if Dems won all 6 (unlikely) it could be 215-217 Dems.

[hlthe2b]

6. Thanks...

Yeah... definitely complicated.

[Willis88]

3. Hoping that this causes the Repugs to lose their house majority

Even the lame duck session may be impacted

[mountain grammy]

4. oh yes please! music to my ears!

[ColinC]

7. Still likely 219 unless Peltola pulls off a miracle

[underpants]

8. Gotcha.

I posted an article summarizing the 6 up thread. Some of these are crazy close.

[ColinC]

15. Decisiondesk has it at only 4 undecided.

And from my observations it seems to be Even less than that since some races should be fairly easy to call. Some already had a candidate concede.

Harder is over and he won. Costa is completely over as well. CA45 Michelle Steel is very obviously over to me as well, since she clearly won't be able to maintain a 300 or so vote lead from the next drop. The only ones that seem really uncertain are Alaska and CA13.

We do have to wait for a bit long before we really know those outcomes.

[In It to Win It]

10. The rank choice voting always saves Peltola... I'm hoping for it this time.

[Wiz Imp]

17. I guess it's still possible

Begich is under 50% so they will definitely move to the ranked choice voting to determine the winner. Apparently that will happen on November 20.

https://www.adn.com/politics/2024/11/13/republican-nick-begich-moves-closer-to-alaska-us-house-win-after-latest-ballot-count/

[Wiz Imp]

9. According to this site, it is 219 - 212 with 4 uncalled.

Last edited Thu Nov 14, 2024, 05:43 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/house/

AK-AL
CA-13
CA-21
CA-45

I'm not sure why the Alaska race hasn't been called yet. I see no way for the Democrats to win that one. EDIT: Upon second review, the Alaska race will come down to second choice votes. If Peltolla (D) wins a significant majority of those second choice votes, she can still win. Highly unlikely but not impossible.
CA21 - Democrat Jim Costa leads and is likely to win
CA45 - Democrat Derek Tran trails by just a couple hundred votes but with 8% left to count. This is a likely Dem win.
Ca13 - This one is still up in the air. Democrat Adam Gray trails by about 3700 but there is still 25% of votes left to count.

So it looks like it will be 220 to 214 with one still to be determined.

These numbers are based on the results of last Tuesday's elections. Gaetz resignation brings the Republicans number down to 219. Additional reps nominated to the cabinet, if confirmed, will reduce the Republican number further. I'm not sure how realistic it is for the Dems to be able to win a special election in any of these districts, but the Republican majority, if it remains, will be razor thin. Despite winning the Presidency and the senate, they did not make any gains in the house.

[underpants]

11. So for at least some time it could 217-214 for votes

That’s really thin. A couple of their big poo flingers could really screw things up for them. Good.

[Wiz Imp]

12. Yep.

Actually, if Dems win CA13 it would be 217-215 - meaning it would take only one Republican to vote against the party position to stop any legislation from passing.

[haele]

13. However, looking short term...at, say, 220R/215D

Especially with 4 -5 red state/GOP seats down awaiting special elections, the Democrats could still pull off enough votes as a block to stymie a GOP agenda.
And might be that the 2 NY Republicans can be replaced by more centrist Ds?

An even closer margin than the last Congress.

Haele

[Wiz Imp]

14. Absolutely.

I'm not sure what all reps have been nominated at this point. I know Gaetz already resigned and Waltz from FL & Stefanik from NY have been nominated. Are there others? Unfortunately, Dems are highly unlikely to win a special election in any of these districts. (Gaetz won 66-34, Waltz won 66.5-33.5 & Stefanik 62-38)

[ColinC]

16. Nailed it!!

[appmanga]

18. "I'm not sure why the Alaska race hasn't been called yet".

Alaska is a huge state with a lot of far flung population areas. The initial vote count doesn't end until November 20th.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting which, because it's destroyed Republican domination in the state, was also on the ballot. If the leading candidate doesn't win with 50 percent + one vote, the votes of the other candidates are apportioned out to the two leaders based on those voters' second choice.

The question is if the voter didn't want to vote for Pelota (the incumbent), but didn't vote for the Republican, would she be the predominant second choice? This is what gives Pelota a wisp of a chance of winning. And the vote to overturn RCV was still very much up in the air. Votes from the remote native populace might allow the preservation of RCV to prevail.

[Wiz Imp]

19. RIght. After reviewing and thinking about it, I realized why they wouldn't call it until the 2nd choice votes

are distributed. I edited my post to indicate it is unlikely but not impossible.

[IbogaProject]

20. RCP has 219, so 218 might be without Gaetz

Whew going to be a long few months let alone the next two years.

[underpants]

21. Right. -2 eventually.

The vote margin is going to be razor thin. We’ll see how in line even their fringe is for Dear Leader.