General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnyone else transferring their 401(k) funds to low-risk investments?
I'm thinking of moving to a money market fund in my 401(k) before Orange Shitler gets into office. Probably dropping my paycheck contributions to 4%.
Sundance1220
(93 posts)next month. In fairness, I'd be doing it even if I were younger. The economy is going to collapse. It always does under repub presidents and I don't have to time to watch it claw its way back.
beaglelover
(4,053 posts)years. No one should move all their money into money market or fixed income at the time they retire.
Sundance1220
(93 posts)of help. They've done great by me so far so I think I'm good.
cadoman
(890 posts)Republican president, high interest rates, quite a bit of froth in both real estate and stock prices, unemployment rate can only go up from here...
Trump's inheriting a well-functioning economy, but also one that's a bit long in the tooth and straining in some areas. TBH I've been kinda surprised we haven't taken a tumble earlier.
Johnny2X2X
(21,750 posts)The markets are going to crush it for 12 months or so.
AllyCat
(17,103 posts)Johnny2X2X
(21,750 posts)Growth is strong. UE is low. Wages are high. Earnings are solid. Demand is high. Theres a strong case for a nice bull run right now.
Tariffs will be bad, but they will be gradually brought in.
Do not let politics mess with your money. Now is not the time to sell and miss out on big gains.
AllyCat
(17,103 posts)bif
(23,980 posts)It'll keep plowing ahead for at least two years before a major downturn.
We'll see what he does, but we heard the same things in 2016 and some people actually followed through and missed out on massive gains in equities.
If you're going to do something radical, please consult a professional. There are ways to lower risk without getting out of the markets.
flamingdem
(39,916 posts)Hedging sounds like something to learn right now
uponit7771
(91,754 posts)... if they're brought in slowly its not what's needed right now.
They hurt last time and they'll hurt this time too
Farmer-Rick
(11,401 posts)He wants to stop doing business with the Federal Reserve banks and abolish the board. He wants the president and Congress to make the day to day decisions on monetary policy and interest rates.
He wants to go to "free banking". That's the type of banking we had before the Great Depression. If he wipes out the Federal Reserve, he will wipe out the FDIC insurance. Your deposits will no longer be insured by the US government.
It will save banks money and totally deregulate them. It will also seriously increase the risk of leaving your money in a bank or credit union. If a bank or credit union underestimates their risk in the stock market or with large loans (like to a New York real estate mob connected crook), the bank will use your deposits to pay off their debt.
Which is what happened in the Great Depression.
Think. Again.
(17,957 posts)...what type of holding would be most safe, without supporting any of the negative moves trump and his pals are going to make.
Submariner
(12,667 posts)doc03
(36,699 posts)always stayed in the market and done OK. But I
have no idea what is safe now.
Wingus Dingus
(8,407 posts)(pre-election) and I hope that wasn't a mistake. We'll see.
Raven
(14,098 posts)kerry-is-my-prez
(9,197 posts)Raven
(14,098 posts)Dwild
(7 posts)I believe the market will go up because he will remove guard rails but Id rather have the bird in the hand now than risk it all later
Johonny
(22,047 posts)Small caps which are more resistant to tariffs, banking sector (anticipating deregulation), and energy. The next 12 months are considered a high probability for higher markets based on historicals. Long term into 2026, no one knows. And Trump might be so toxic historical trends might be meaningless.
Emile
(29,803 posts)Last edited Thu Nov 14, 2024, 04:39 PM - Edit history (1)
invested mainly in Fortune 500 American Funds, CD's and bonds. Less volatile and more stable.
Gore1FL
(21,884 posts)He had a good 1st year in 2017 on the wake of Obama's economy.
flamingdem
(39,916 posts)I was beginning to panic reading this thread!
Yes, maybe a year before a recession.
onenote
(44,628 posts)On election day 2016, the dow closed 18,332 By the end of 2017, it was up to 24,719. By the end of 2019, it was at 28,538. Before the pandemic hit, it topped 29,500.
I have no regrets playing the long game and not cashing out during Trump's term.
albacore
(2,599 posts)uponit7771
(91,754 posts)LexVegas
(6,573 posts)Chakaconcarne
(2,732 posts)followed by looming corp. tax cuts. the markets are going to take off and the rich want to capitalize on it. I'm giving it a year before I seriously consider.
Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)leighbythesea2
(1,216 posts)Will let you know
Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)leighbythesea2
(1,216 posts)Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)that would work.
(I love DU!)
albacore
(2,599 posts)Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)I keep thinking about THAT scene in Handmaid's Tale where they take away all the women's money.
albacore
(2,599 posts)Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)albacore
(2,599 posts)Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)DFW
(56,527 posts)Ironically, Switzerland will show you the door the moment you ask, if you are not a legal resident. The USA imposed such stringent reporting paperwork on their banks for non-resident Americans that the Swiss kicked them all out, told them to close their accounts and empty their safe deposit boxes.
But Germany, on the other hand, had no problem at all with me opening a non-resident account before I moved here. You have to go through all the reporting paperwork in both countries, and report any income (i.e. interest, etc.), but as long as the funds are legal, taxes already paid, there arent any barriers. At least, there didnt use to be. Ive been told the regulations are particularly loose in Estonia, and almost as loose in Poland, but I have no personal experience with either. I would suspect the UK and Ireland wouldn't be overly complicated, either.
So-called money-laundering regulations exist, but they are mostly to catch big drug cartel profits in the hundreds of millions. Since they rarely catch anyone (whether due to incompetence or due to bribed design, I couldnt tell you), they impose a lot of paperwork to show they are trying. One favorite parking place is the string of Russian-owned banks on Cyprus. If you meet a financial advisor who sings the praises of parking your offshore stash with the Gangstersky Bank of Cyprus, tell him thanks for the coffee, and head for the exit without showing too much panic.
There are three classes of offshore account reporting. One is for accounts whose balance does not exceed $10,000. These days, that amount hardly seems worth the effort. Thats four Krugerrands. It used to be twenty. Accounts like that barely raise an eyebrow, and the fees will dwindle it with alarming speed (ask in advance! They vary widely). The next stage is between $10,000 and $100,000. They get more attention, although if the activity on the account is minimal and fairly benign, here, too, just obey all reporting requirements, and no one should give you a hard time. Go over a balance of $100,000 and you may or may not be called to give a who and why explanation, though if youre clean, they shouldnt give you a hard time. Transparency is your friend.
Things could always change, of course. Countries that grossly mismanage their economies often put restrictions on what their citizens can take out of the country, and mismanaging the economy is the Republican Partys middle name. In the USA, as things stand now, there are no restrictions on carrying cash or negotiable instruments in or out of the country. Amounts of $10,000 or above must be officially declared, but they are legal. Depending on the amount, the bearer could be asked to explain the reason or document ownership, but if youre declaring in the first place, and youre not an idiot, you will have your paperwork in order. Whether or not that stays the status quo is another question, but it has been static for decades.
Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)"Gangstersky bank of Cyprus" Yes. I think I'll avoid that!
This information about the amounts is useful. The money I'm talking about is all legal, all taxes are paid, so I'm thinking it shouldn't be a problem.
I think the route albacore discussed above might be the easiest for me. I could do it with a couple of nice weekends in Montreal.
Thank you again. DU is so valuable!
Wonder Why
(4,589 posts)enough to recover in 10-20 years.
Skittles
(159,318 posts)it will be a while before they crash the economy
crimycarny
(1,627 posts)Here is an email my financial advisor sent out after the election. Take it for what it's worth. So far my financial advisor has been pretty spot on but obviously no one really knows since Trump is a lunatic so completely unpredictable.
How is the market going to react to the election results? Read below for multiple analyst/economists reactions:
Trump/GOP Senate/Dem House: Look for a temporary extension of the 2017 tax cuts but only after the GOP shows a willingness to negotiate and make concessions, including letting the top tax rate go back up to 39.6% and raising the limit on the state and local tax deduction, now capped at $10,000, to $20-25,000, instead. Thatd be the political price to get some Democratic House members to vote for an extension. Trump would raise tariffs and reduce net immigration flows, no congressional action required. In addition, in this scenario Trump would try to resurrect the presidential power of impoundment, (a power to cut discretionary spending without congressional approval) which hasnt been used since the early 1970s, claiming the law passed in 1974 under Nixon to eliminate impoundment is ineffective, because it can only be eliminated by a Constitutional Amendment, not a regular law. - Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist First Trust
Republican Sweep: Look for a temporary extension of the tax cuts originally enacted in 2017, but with a lower tax rate on corporate profits and some modest targeted tax relief for workers who earn tips. Because of budget rules, the only way to permanently extend the tax cuts is to make major cuts to spending and the bureaucracy. While it seems clear that massive government growth in the past two decades should be reversed, it remains to be seen whether Republicans are serious about it. So, we expect a reduction in green energy subsidies and a focus on reforming Medicaid. Without legislation, President Trump would also raise tariffs, particularly on China and substantially reduce net immigration flows into the US. - Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist First Trust
You're going to get some version of a repricing (of Treasuries) just by nature of the math. It's just a question of how long does it last. You're seeing the initial {bond selloff} today. Volatility is important here. I suspect we could see a decline in overall volatility. We're hesitant to buy or sell bonds. We're looking at that 30-year auction today as a barometer of demand. I'm sitting on my hands and seeing how things play out. Treasuries have had a pretty good sell-off coming into this. Ultimately you're making a bet that there is going to be some fiscal responsibility coming out of the Trump administration." - Jack McIntyre Brandywine Global
For now, investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets, as seen in the overnight market action. There is also an assumption that M&A activity will pickup and that more tax cuts are coming or the existing ones will be extended. This creates a strong backdrop for stocks. Financials and Energy are the obvious beneficiaries of Trump's victory amid hopes of deregulation and a greater focus on U.S. energy independence. There may even be other sectors that benefit from Trump's victory, such as technology stocks, especially if the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is knocked down a peg. We need to see personnel and cabinet appointments in the week ahead to get firmer ideas around all this, as personnel is policy. - David Bahnsen CIO Bahnsen Group
Both parties are going to spend no matter what. This Treasury sell-off is overdone. It's kind of a knee-jerk reaction.(In terms of Fed policy) none of the presidents have been silent on rates. It's going to be a '94-'95 scenario. They used this term 'recalibrate'. It reminds me of a post-'94-'95 period where the Fed was tweaking back and forth to avoid a recession. - Ellis Phifer Raymond James
My quick summary from what I'm reading:
Stocks should benefit over the short/medium term
Bonds negative/neutral over the short/medium term
That last piece, the summary, is what my financial advisor summarized (not me).
Farmer-Rick
(11,401 posts)Read the 2025 project or listened to Trump's words.
Will they advise the same action when Dumpy Trumpy abolishes the Federal Reserve and goes to "free banking"?
Without FDIC insurance just leaving your money in a bank savings account can have very high risk.
Trumpy Dumpy wants to abolish the Federal Reserve, stop business with the Federal Reserve banks through out the US. Abolish the board and let the president and Congress make day to day decisions on monetary policy and interest rates.
"Free banking" is what was in affect before the Great Depression. It was a very cumbersome and fragile system.
Add to that tariffs and him, Musk and Congress skimming off some of our national assets for themselves, and you have a perfect storm for an economic collapse.
crimycarny
(1,627 posts)Banks will collapse as everyone will be withdrawing all their money at they same time. Everyone, including the mega rich, would be ruined. So Im hopeful that, since its in their own self-interest, those with money and power to abolish the FDIC wont do it as it would ruin them too.
Farmer-Rick
(11,401 posts)Look what Trump did to Atlantic City. There is nothing left there but ugly, dirty concrete buildings, empty parking lots and abandoned lots. He turned a once thriving seaside hotspots into a ghost town. He's going to do the same thing to this country.
He has said he wants to abolish the Federal Reserve. It's in the 2025 Project. If they abolish the Federal Reserve, they have to get rid of the FDIC. It is part of the Federal Reserve.
The FDIC conducts inspections and rates banks, aside from insuring accounts. Inspections and ratings are not part of "free banking". Before 1933 when we had "free banking", no one seemed too concerned over insurance particularly the banks themselves. But when the banks crashed, the banks took depositor's money to pay their debts.
I think the banks are greedy and believe "free banking" will reduce regulations and costs. Doing away with the FDIC means banks don't have to pay for that insurance anymore. Nor do they have to put up with bank inspectors anymore.
Also the rich can just move to foreign banks and get assurances on their multi million dollar accounts that we poorer folks can't get.
I maybe wrong. There may be a few people remaining in government who don't want to destroy everything. Maybe one of the filthy-rich people assigned by Trump will think things through before they dismantle our banking regulations. But I gave up hope when Trump won.
crimycarny
(1,627 posts)I wake up in the middle of the night and cant go back to sleep as I feel a catastrophe coming on too. Trump will make the Housing Bubble crash seem like a cakewalk (those are my fears anyway).
Im 65 and ready to retire soon, so cant absorb that shock.
I, like you, hope Im wrong. Im in the same loss of hope though. And helpless, what can average people do against such depravity of those like Musk, Trump, etc to whom it will never be enough. No amount of power or money will ever be enough for people like that, and that always ends up badly.
onenote
(44,628 posts)I sure hope so.
beaglelover
(4,053 posts)ducks are in a row.
cilla4progress
(25,904 posts)science
beaglelover
(4,053 posts)$11,250 instead of $7,500! Bonus savings! The stock market is NOT going to collapse under Trump and to move to a money market 100% portfolio is crazy talk!
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)How did that work out?
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)Moved all of my funds out stocks and into a money market account. I'm sitting cash. I'm waiting for the inevitable collapse.
Think. Again.
(17,957 posts)It would be fairly easy to predict sectors will benefit from trump, but they wouldn't be anything huge and solid. My personal choices wouldn't allow me to invest in fossil energy, military contractors, chemicals, etc, so I'm kind of limited as far as the growth trump will spur, and the sectors I am willing to support will most likely go stagnant under trump.
I might just cash out for a while and see what happens.
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)So, I know that there will be a huge sell off at some point over the next 4 years. It's inevitable.
Think. Again.
(17,957 posts)...and if that starts a run, well....
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)https://thehill.com/business/4991406-trump-treasury-secretary-contenders/
thinkingagain
(1,015 posts)are safer?
VS a checking & or savings account
CD's?
and or retirement accounts ( IRA's / pensions)?
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)then we're in Mad Max world. Aint nothing saving us then.
cilla4progress
(25,904 posts)69 yo.
paleotn
(19,181 posts)The markets will get all giddy about dereg. But be ready to pull the plug as the party comes to an end. And never, ever reduce your 401K contributions if you can help it. Unless tax treatment changes significantly. Depending on your plan, you might want to investigate options that are a step or two removed from the US dollar or US debt and equity markets.
Crowman2009
(2,805 posts)But I'll still reallocate my funds to money market if the shit hits the fan next year. That's if those tariffs get passed. Hopefully the orange shitler white house will be a dysfunctional backstabbing shit show in which they get nothing accomplished.
Bettie
(17,085 posts)no point in losing everything.
JT45242
(2,891 posts)The economy will crater under the tariffs. Waiting to decide how much to move to safer funds when it appears ready to crash. Not sure how long that will be.
But will bonds actually be safe when the economy craters and government debt skyrocket to unbelievable levels?
Seriously, will mango Mussolini manage to make us bonds default?
LogDog75
(98 posts)I don't have a 401K but I do have an IRA mutual fund, which I am doing RMDs, and a regular mutual fund. Both funds are in the aggressive sector mainly because I don't need to tap them for living expenses. I have a military retirement and Social Security which pay my mortgage, taxes, HOA fees, bills, etc. with just enough money left over to put in the credit union (banks suck) savings, checking, CD, and money market accounts.
My strategy for investing is simple; pick good mutual funds and ride through the high and lows of the stock market. The analogy I use with the stock market is it's like the tides. The tides come in and the tides go out. The stock market rises and the stock market falls. Over time, ride through the highs and lows by not withdrawing or moving your money to something you think is safer or will bring higher returns. I expect an 8% return on my mutual funds and right now my IRA is returning 16% and my other one is returning about 25%; thank you Joe Biden! I've maintained this strategy for the last 30 years through the tech boom of the late 90s, the downturn after 911, the Great Recession, the boom in the stock market under Obama and Biden and it's paid off.
For those getting antsy, relax. DonOld Trump's policy will have a negative effect on the stock market but we will survive. We may have to suffer some losses in the value of our investments but I don't think our investments will be worth less than how much they were valued when Biden took office. Over the past four years, my mutual funds have made six steps forward so if they have to make three steps backwards because of the idiot-elected president I'm still three steps ahead.
Please keep your perspective and you'll survive.
Tweedy
(1,134 posts)in a world with 100% tarrifs?
A cd? Would banks be safe?
albacore
(2,599 posts)LogDog75
(98 posts)CDs are good for getting some interest and being fairly liquid.
Klarkashton
(2,081 posts)drmeow
(5,281 posts)if things go south during his term and if we don't take things back at the midterms then again in 2028 we're f**ked anyway no matter where you put your money now!
Groundhawg
(935 posts)bullimiami
(13,989 posts)MichMan
(13,172 posts)kerry-is-my-prez
(9,197 posts)And several hundred (please forgive me) in Cypto (bitcoin). I was interested in it waaay before Trump and the Reps started talking about it.
bif
(23,980 posts)But I'm going to ride the market for a bit. Maybe for a month or two.
Scrivener7
(52,739 posts)profit.
Finance guys are idiots. They'll run things up until it becomes too obvious to ignore that trump is trashing the economy. And then they'll run things up for a few more months.
shanti
(21,716 posts)Not much left, but a bird in the hand and all that...Guess I'll schedule a meeting with my CU financial advisor.
Quixote1818
(30,386 posts)Response to Crowman2009 (Original post)
KewlKat This message was self-deleted by its author.
Crowman2009
(2,805 posts)sure thing
Shermann
(8,641 posts)I'm building up the remaining 2% position in CDs.
texasfiddler
(2,189 posts)I was upset about the election in 2016, but I stayed in equities because of my time horizon. I am moving a third of my assets into money market funds and my S&P 500 index funds into targeted retirement funds with diverse allocations. I think the equity market is way overpriced compared to 2016 and I was really concerned about a market correction during a Kamala Harris administration (I was really hoping she would win). Now, I think it is very possible to have a massive correction during tRump. The Buffett ratio and the inverted yield curve are concerning indicators. Who knows. I just know Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has an almost 30% cash position (the highest it's been in 34 years). I'm not going to let Donald's chaos ruin my retirement. I'll re-adjust as needed.
carpetbagger
(4,780 posts)However, I'm in an odd situation. I plan to step down from my fed govt position in a few months, I'm 55, not eligible for health insurance but I have a few options besides ACA and a homesick Canadian girlfriend. I'd like to move enough out of my TSP (federal employee 401 which owns IOUs from the treasury rather than actual stocks, it's like gambling on index fund/bond/t-bill returns), so need to roll over but only after taking some rule of 55 cash.
My feeling is that a standard growth guy might give the market a good sugar high before it hits the wall, a Musk appointee might be at risk of sudden "reinvention" of money and get too happy with tariffs. Ideally I'd be out of American holdings before the fed gets too heavy on Trump appointees, although their zero-rate plans would be a nice emigration gift.