Some unexplained discrepancies, such as why Democrats won Senate and Governor elections in all the swing states except

[lees1975]

Georgia.

This is a very unusual split ticket circumstance. The gaps are much wider than historically, especially in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania, where split tickets usually average less than 2%. It might be worth auditing some counting machines at random.

On the other hand, with the way things are going, Trump will have lost the mid-term before he takes office.

[doc03]

1. Last election Republicans won when Trump lost. nt

[LeftInTX]

2. Did Casey win?

Right now, he's in a recount, but McCormick is ahead.

[onenote]

3. They're not "unexplained".

Last edited Thu Nov 14, 2024, 12:29 PM - Edit history (1)

First, it is typical for more voters to cast ballots in the Presidential race than in down ballot races.
Second, the Democrats didn't win the Senate AND Governor races in all swing states. In fact, a Senate seat and the governorship were not both on the ballot in any of the swing states.
Third, while we hope that the result will flip, at the moment, Casey is losing Pennsylvania. And the other statewide race in Pennsylvania, for state attorney general, was won handily by the republican.
Fourth, in Arizona and North Carolina, the explanation for the outcome is that the republican candidates, Kari Lake and Mark Robinson, were damaged goods. Yes, Trump is damaged goods too, but Lake and Robinson turned off lots of voters who chose not to cast votes for them or to split their tickets.
Fifth, Baldwin and Slotkin narrowly won their elections -- so narrowly that the presence of rightwing third party candidates probably made the difference.
Sixth, Jacky Rosen prevailed in Nevada. Even as the incumbent, she struggled, getting less than 50% of the vote. She may have been saved by Nevada allowing voters to cast a "none of the above" ballot -- an option that was chosen by 3% of the voters in the Senate race. but less than 1.5% in the Presidential race.

[unc70]

6. NC did not have a senate race

Only governor.

[onenote]

7. Thanks.

[lees1975]

8. Read the title again. It doesn't say there was a governor's and senator's race in a swing state.

Democrats won every senate race in the swing states except Pennsylvania, still undecided, won the governor's race in North Carolina, fairly handily, and there was nothing else in Georgia.

[ScratchCat]

4. There are at least two races in Florida

That ended up way, way off from what polling was showing.

Both Rick Scott and State Rep. Corey Simon won 56% to 43% against their Democrat challenger when polls showed these much closer. Some posters here thought Scott had a chance to lose. I live in Simon's district and you couldn't watch anything on tv without there being four commercials every commercial break. Simon was clearly very concerned about being tied to the abortion ban as half his commercials were saying Parks is lying about him voting for it(and Parks commercials say Simon is lying about not voting for it).
I had a dozen flyers in my mailbox every week. Neither race was even close according to the vote totals. Simon sure spent a lot of money to win by such a large margin.

[Bettie]

5. Misogyny and racism

no girls allowed in the he man woman haters White House club.