Hello Tropical Depression Nineteen- snips (now it's Sara)

[nitpicked]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/140848.shtml

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been
improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which
shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt
based on the Dvorak estimates.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later
today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras,
and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak
steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days
of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable
westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as
the bulk of the latest model guidance.

Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities.
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However,
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance
envelope beyond 36 h.
(snip)

[nitpicked]

1. 10 am EST discussion update

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/141450.shtml

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become
better organized this morning, with improved curved banding
features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level
center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from
both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which
will provide more information on current intensity and structure.

The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12
kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will
continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The
ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in
weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should
slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move
northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track
forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and
is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends.
(snip)

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains
over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.
(snip)

[nitpicked]

2. 1 pm advisory (headed probably for Honduras/Nicaragua)

Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
(snip)

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through
today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The
system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras
late Friday and through the weekend.

Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over
water.
(snip)