POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN

[malaise]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?cone#contents


Add

[surfered]

1. It's November!!!

[malaise]

2. Indeed

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#99L

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/rafael-one-of-just-three-cat2-november-hurricanes-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Rafael one of just three Cat2+ November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
After blasting across western Cuba as a Cat 3, Rafael emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as a rare November Cat 2.

And here comes Sara

Sara looks like Belize and Honduras
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/the-most-notorious-november-atlantic-hurricanes/602213

[surfered]

3. With remnants possibly making it to.......Florida

[Dem4life1234]

4. Of course

[nitpicked]

5. One latest set of models

https://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2024&storm=19

If it doesn't get chewed up by Honduras, by Monday it may hit the Yucatan or just south.

From there, some surviving tracks turn towards Cuba, others head for Florida.

Again, tune back in on Sunday.

[onenote]

6. In a few weeks, we're heading back to the Caribbean for the holidays

Sure hope this shit has ended by then.

[malaise]

7. It will

This will be mostly rain for your spot and mine.
Still we don’t need one more effin drop of rain.
Honduras and Belize are in for serious flooding and land slides😀
Enjoy your holiday

[nitpicked]

8. 7 pm advisory text snips

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al19/al192024.public_a.001.shtml?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas
(snip)

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue
for another day or two, taking the system across the western
Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander
near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
(snip)

[malaise]

9. Thanks