Will there ever be another true Presidential landslide (400+ Electoral Votes) ever again?

[Polybius]

Last 100 years with 400+ Electoral Votes in an election:

1928: Herbert Hoover 444, Al Smith 87
1932: FDR 472, Herbert Hoover 59
1936: FDR 523, Alf Landon 8
1940: FDR 449, Wendell Willkie 82
1944: FDR 432, Thomas E. Dewey 99
1952: Dwight D. Eisenhower 442, Adlai Stevenson II 89
1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower 457, Adlai Stevenson II 73
1964: LBJ 486, Barry Goldwater 52
1972: Richard Nixon 520, George McGovern 17
1980: Ronald Reagan 489, Jimmy Carter 49
1984: Ronald Reagan 525, Walter Mondale 13
1988: George H. W. Bush 426, Michael Dukakis 111

Both sides have done it several times over the last 100 years (Republicans 7 times, Democrats 5 times), but the last time anyone has gotten over 400 EV's was 1988. Do you think it's even possible for one side to do it again? If yes, what kind of political atmosphere would it take? If no, why not?

[NewHendoLib]

1. I don't see it happening with the extent of the right wing propaganda machine

which leads to extreme polarization of the electorate.

[LymphocyteLover]

2. not with so many solid red states and big solid blue states like now but we can dream

the other possibility is some wild card that throws the whole election off right in the last days of the campaign, like maybe Trump going to jail?

[ITAL]

3. On a long enough time timeline

I'm sure with all the close elections from the 1880s-1920s, consistent blowouts seemed very far away but they soon became a regular occurrence. Right now we can't see a time when landslides can ever happen, but I'm sure someday they may. Perhaps not for another generation or two, but forever is a long time!

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Not likely until at least 2040

By that point, whites will be in the minority, and tens of millions of Gen Z’s and Gen Alpha’s will be added to the voting rolls.

[Xavier Breath]

5. Somehow I had managed to not hear about or even consider the existence of

"Gen Alpha" until this post. Live and learn.

As others have noted, we're too polarized for that to occur. The most criminal and reprehensible person ever to run for the office appeared on the scene in 2016, and if there ever were an opportunity in modern times for 400+ electoral votes to be cast against a candidate, that would have been it. We all know how that worked out.

For most of us and the remainder of our lifetimes, it will likely come down to a handful of states, and a nail-biter each and every election night.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Data has shown that young voters don't become more conservative as they age

At least that’s true of millennials; Gen Z and Alpha are as progressive, if not more so than millennials.

By 2040, most of us boomers will be dead.

[TheRealNorth]

9. The Gen X'rs will still mostly be around

But hopefully, the conservative slant of the older Gen X'rs will be offset by the younger folks.

But make no mistake - the Cons know this and are taking active measures. That is why they laser focused on education policy and school boards- to brainwash the younger generations. It is people like Dennis Prager's purpose in life.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. Gen X is, and will be, vastly outnumbered by Millennials and Gens Z and alpha. Nt

[TheRealNorth]

11. That is why they (Conservatives - or at least the MAGATS/Teabaggers)) also lean into the authoritarianism

It won't matter how many more votes you have if they change the rules so that those votes have no power to change the government.

[Takket]

6. not as long as Hitler can carry the middle of the country and Florida even if he ran against George Washington

[Initech]

12. Not as long as Fox News owns the GOP either.

Hell, just the other day Hannity was giving the MAGA Congress lunatics their quarterly performance evaluation and one of them said that Biden wasn't fit to hold office, which the rest of the room broke out in applause. Utterly fucking disgusting behavior. This is why this country can't have nice things. Fox News is *LARGELY* responsible for a good majority of the mess that we're in. And they're also the ones riling up the crazies for another Trump term. We've got to start fighting back against the Fox Machine at every level and every opportunity.

[leftstreet]

7. A candidate running on Medicare For All would come close

most likely

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

18. Medicare for All will lose you the votes

Of any older D voters, and anyone who has actually dealt with Medicare.

It's better than nothing. But only barely. It's crap compared to any of the public plans in Europe.

[leftstreet]

20. True. People like medical debt

Seriously?

A single payer nonprofit system is what people want

[SickOfTheOnePct]

34. Some people do

Even a lot of people do. But not enough that it would result in a 400+ vote Electoral College landslide.

[Polybius]

24. Depends who it is

Do you think AOC in '28 can get 400 EV's? I sure don't.

[leftstreet]

25. True enough

Like Reagan, it would have to be another well known national figure not generally associated with politics.

How about Tom Hanks?

[lees1975]

13. Less than half a million votes

scattered across three states would have brought Biden to 372, and I think someone here did that math. North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, I think it was.

Political atmosphere? I think with Trump there's always the potential of a catastrophic miscalculation on his part that could do him and the GOP more damage than has already occurred.

There's going to be a lot of tampering with machines, attempts to prevent the counting of ballots, and some outright cheating by the GOP in 2024, you can take that to the bank. So the turnout for Dems better be huge.

[dsc]

15. Ohio was not close

FL and NC were.

[Polybius]

19. Florida in 2020 wasnt that close either

In 2016 it was.

[gulliver]

14. Loudly and repeatedly disavow the voices and ideas of the cray-cray...

...and Dems would have a landslide on their hands. We'd have massive gains in voting rights, reproductive rights, climate, health care, the elimination of poverty, assault weapons bans, etc.

The cray-cray folks are neither right nor left. They're just lost. They need our help. We don't need their guidance. It's a one-person-one vote world.

The majority of people are basically normal and just want to get on with their lives. Their voices should lead the chorus. The more we make that happen, the more dominant "logical liberal" Dems become. The more dominant we become, the better the world will be.

[dsc]

16. It is quite doubtful

The Democrats who won those races won the entire South (except Johnson who got 61% of the national vote) while the GOP who won those races won California, IL, NJ, WA, OR, CO which no GOP candidate is likely to win. All Bush in 88 won NY.

Going forward Dems will win for sure CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, CT, MD, WA which makes it impossible to keep them under 120 while the GOP will win a who bunch of small states plus TX and FL keeping them around the 120 mark.

[Chainfire]

17. Trump's forth election will proabably pull 400.

[lees1975]

21. Dems have to turnout more of their voters in Red states.

In 2020 for example, the GOP turned out over 60% of their registered voters in Florida, Ohio and Texas, while Democrats got 51%, 55% and 54% respectively in those states. Trump won all three by single digit percentages. Calculating the math, Democrats getting 67% of their voters out in Texas beats 63% of the GOP vote.

On the other side of that same coin, 69% of registered Democrats turned out in Arizona, compared to 63% of Republicans. GOP now only outnumbers Dems in Arizona by 3 or 4% so Independent voters made the difference there, as well as in Georgia, where Democrats have won three in a row statewide, two in a row in Arizona.

Landslide? Maybe not, but I'm betting that, with a little work, Biden can improve his total up to 340 votes in 2024.

The polling data on his approval and vote potential, all over the place right now, is crap.

[First Speaker]

22. "Ever" is a long time...

...and who knows what the political landscape will be in 2040, 2060, 2080...

[Polybius]

23. Very true

Hard to predict more than 20 or 30 years into the future.

[Greybnk48]

26. Not with Fox cable, and rabid right wing radio and blogs foaming hate.

They could turn a kid against Santa with the bile they spew.

[Polybius]

28. That explains why we haven't had a Democrat win 400+ in decades

But it doesn't explain why Republicans haven't had one. Reagan was far-right and did it.

[gab13by13]

27. I proudly voted for George McGovern

[Kid Berwyn]

29. 2024

Biden clobbers whoever the traitors put up.

And if we don’t make it about democracy v fascism, it’s political malpractice.

[Polybius]

32. I think Biden's ceiling is about 325 EV's

Less if it's against Haley.

[Initech]

30. Not as long as Fox News thinks they can steal elections.

They stole 2000, 2016, they attempted to overthrow the 2020 election, they also stole Supreme Court, and now they've got the House. What's to attempt them from stealing 2024? Fox is the root of most of our problems right now. They must be stopped at all costs.

[Joinfortmill]

31. I'll go out on a limb and say Biden might do it.

The Trump Trials will set the stage for the next election. There's still a lot we don't know yet, and none of it is good. A Blue Tsunami may be the result.

[Polybius]

33. I doubt Biden can do it, but...

Perhaps Newsom vs. DeSantis in 2028 will produce 400 EV's.

[WarGamer]

35. That 1984 tabulation just seems incomprehensible today.

To answer, no we're much too divided today to see any kind of landslide.

[Elessar Zappa]

36. I'm sure there will be at some point but

probably not in the next twenty years.

[Sky Jewels]

37. If Trump gets into the White House again,

we are going to have Putin-style elections that give 95+ percent of the vote to GQP/Maga candidates.

[AncientOfDays]

38. if tRump wins 2024

... there may not be another election. I have no doubt he would suspend the Constitution and become dictator for life.

[JCMach1]

39. Yes, there will be another failure to launch candidate

At some point