RFK Jr. has a big primary problem: Democrats like Joe Biden

[Doc Sportello]

One big takeaway from this polling: RFK's support among Democrats comes not from "the left" as is already being thrown out here by some, but is strongest among conservatives and moderates who vote in Democratic primaries (and no they are not all disrupters):

"Per the CNN poll, Kennedy garnered 35% among Democratic primary voters who identified as non-liberal (i.e., moderate or conservative) independents. He got 10% among liberal Democrats. Kennedy’s averaging about 15% support among self-identified Democrats of any ideology."

snip

The president is averaging in the mid-60s nationally, and there is zero sign his support is weakening. For Biden to start dropping, Democrats would have to stop thinking he’s doing a good job as president. Biden’s approval rating among Democrats in a Quinnipiac University poll released last week was 84%. Just 16% either disapproved (13%) or didn’t hold a view (3%).There is no precedent – at least since World War II – of an incumbent president losing a contested state primary while polling above 70% nationally within his party.

Biden also scores high on a slightly different intraparty metric: His favorability rating is at 85% on average. That is, most Democrats think he’s doing a good job as president and are fans of him personally.

Kennedy’s other big problem goes beyond Biden. While the vast majority of Democrats like the president, the same cannot be said for Kennedy. A mere 25% of Democratic voters had a favorable view of him in the Quinnipiac poll – 39% had an unfavorable view. Among self-identified “strong Democrats” in a May Marquette law school poll, the split was 27% favorable to 50% unfavorable for Kennedy.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/18/politics/robert-kennedy-democratic-primary-joe-biden/index.html

[walkingman]

1. I personally think he is a disgrace to the Kennedy name.

[hlthe2b]

2. With respect to his late father, his late uncle and in acknowledgement of all that has happened to

him (and his family) during his life, I am still left with no other response but to wonder: What the Hell happened to him? How can he honestly think as he does? He's not stupid, but is there something neuro-psychologically wrong with him? (and no, I'm not talking about his spasmodic dysphonia that affects his speech but is etiologically unlikely to have anything to do with his mind or actions).

[Hortensis]

4. Yes to the "something wrong." That's why I think of him as a family "dud."

We don't know many families that haven't produced any. Personality problems causing others to constantly wonder "what's wrong" with him or her are normal, after all.

This dud's wealthy with a famous name that gets truly clueless Democrats all shiny eyed, so has decided to run for president as a Democrat. Using a combo of tRump and LW populist messaging to troll a wide swath.

Lucky us.

[DURHAM D]

10. iirc He is a convicted felon - drug (heroin) charges.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. RFKjr has everything pinned on the unique 2024 NH primary

Biden will likely not appear on the NH ballot, due to that state’s laws forcing an early primary, against the DNC’s new rules for primary schedules. RFKjr is expected to then “win” the primary, although it’s likely he won’t be awarded any delegates because of the violation of DNC rules.

Nevertheless, he will attempt, with the MSM’s eager assistance, to claim he “beat” Biden, and is therefore the best candidate to be the nominee. It will waste a lot of time and media space, and distract from the GOP shitshow that will be unfolding at the same time.

[speak easy]

8. Biden will likely not appear on the IA ballot either.

[W_HAMILTON]

16. Biden can (and should) appear on the ballot and then the DNC should just sanction their delegates.

A similar situation has happened in the past, as others have pointed out.

[The Magistrate]

5. News Media Treating This Man As A Candidate With Following Is Self-Serving Moonshine

There is, and will be, no Democratic contender save President Biden.

Despite all media efforts, the Q-adjacent motor-mouth will be no factor in upcoming primary or general elections.

[2naSalit]

6. Keep in mind...

That the vast network of mis/disinformation is very busy right now, all forms of deception will be present so freaking out at every lie is going to wear down those who engage in it. And it isn't helpful.

That the intent of the mis/disinformation is to sway belief, not promote critical thinking. Critical thought is the greatest threat to these fascists.

[BlueIdaho]

7. I'm surprised he isn't running on a QAnon ticket.

He’s obviously trying to cash in on his family name but sadly his track record won’t get him much traction in the democratic party.

[JohnSJ]

9. It is interesting to note in 2000 Ralph Nader also got a lot of support from right wing groups

[smb]

11. He Ought To Run As A Republican

He'd find a much more receptive audience for his anti-vaxxer and conspiracy-theory QAnonsense.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

12. RFK JR is a Bannon plant

Link to tweet

[comradebillyboy]

13. RFK jr wont't be going anywhere. I doubt he will

win either Iowa or NH even if the loyal Dems have to write Biden in.

[GPV]

14. Joe's there for me, I'm there for him.

[W_HAMILTON]

15. Where is the methodology that says non-liberal equates to moderate or conservative?

Many of those on the far left that don't support Biden in a primary wouldn't consider themselves "liberal" because they apparently think that's a dirty term, but they certainly wouldn't be described as "moderate or conservative" just because they don't consider themselves liberal.

I tried to go through all the links to find the actual poll to see what the actual descriptors were used, but I couldn't find the relevant part.

[tritsofme]

17. His biggest problem is that he's batshit crazy.

It’s embarrassing that so many from a certain wing of the party even give him and Williamson the time of day.

[Doc Sportello]

20. You mean the conservative/moderate wing of the party

As pointed out in the numbers and analysis that is where he is getting his support. He has only 10 percent of support from those who identify as liberal Democrats.

[Initech]

18. Good! Fuck him, Steve Bannon and Joe Rogan!

These guys are not our friends.

[captain queeg]

19. There is a segment of the population that are addicted to reality TV

That would vote for him based on name recognition alone. It’s a sad state of affairs. I should have put quote marks around “reality”.