Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms

[applegrove]

Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms

November 14, 2022 at 12:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 130 Comments

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/how-trump-and-desantis-will-attack?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=87274&post_id=84507567&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email

"SNIP.......

Jonathan Last: “So again, lots of factors were at play. Including one that doesn’t get talked about much: excess Covid deaths. There’s been an ongoing study of the Republican resistance to the Covid vaccines and the preliminary findings suggest that post-vaccine, Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats. Part of this is because of vaccine hesitancy; part of it is because of the age profile of voters.”

“I’m not going to burden you with the math here, but if you want to read up on it, the data is quite striking, all the way to the county level.”

“To take just one example: between January 2021 and this month, 9,400 people in Nevada died of Covid. The data suggests that the majority of these people would have been Republican voters. Keep that number in mind.”

.......SNIP"

https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/14/covid-deaths-probably-cost-republicans-the-midterms/

[Ray Bruns]

1. Let them reap what they have sewn!

[Blue Owl]

2. That's a shame

[TheRealNorth]

15. Womp womp

[Chainfire]

3. Well, I guess I will pray for the Plague for the Presidential election.

We can call the preventive vaccine the "liberal cure" and Republicans will die by the millions...

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Vaccines don't work, masks impede freedom, elections are rigged!!!!

Republicans took the survival-of-the-fittest medicine and enjoyed every minute of it. They earned the outcome.

[PortTack]

5. The Gen Z vote outnumbered the over 65 vote..so anti vax played a role

[maxsolomon]

12. The chart I saw on DU this morning said

Gen Z was 12% of the vote, >65 was 28%. I don't think you're correct.

[Celerity]

47. here is the simple math, 18 to 29yo's (so NOT just Gen Z) voters went so hard for the Dems that

Last edited Tue Nov 15, 2022, 03:44 PM - Edit history (1)

their NET voting impacted negated the net vote Impact of the old voter (65 and up) cohort, who went hard for Rethugs on balance, but not at the same rate as the Gen Z and youngest Millennials (Zillennials like me, people born 1992/93 to 1998 or so) went for Dems.

We voted for Dems by 28 points, versus the oldest (65yo and up) cohort voting for Rethugs by 12 points, so even though 18-29 yo's were smaller in overall number, we completely negated the 65+ yo's large net Rethug vote.




Zillennials actually voted for Dems at even higher rates than the straight up Gen Zers who were 24 and under (for this elections, that means those born November 10, 1997, to November 9, 2004, as a person born November 9th 2004 was legally 18 years of age on November 8th, 2022, and a person born November 9, 1997 was 25 on election day, November 8th, 2022) did in multiple other exit polls, including the CBS one:



I am a Zillennial, in my case I was born right on the cusp of being a Gen Zer, I fell about 2 and a half months short, I just turned 26, so right in that hardcore Dem cohort of 25 to 29yo's (the late, late 1992 born to late, late 1997 born)

[maxsolomon]

48. that's the chart I saw

and it backs up my comment. there were more >65 voters than Gen Z voters in sheer numbers.

[Celerity]

55. yes, but we voted Dem in much higher rates, so negated the 65 and up Rethug slant

and again it was not just Gen Z, the youngest Millennials, who were 29yo or younger on election day, helped boost that number of Dem net percentage even higher for the entire 18yo 29yo cohort

I will still be in the 18-29yo cohort come the November 5, 2024 General, but will just miss it (by around 2 weeks) come the November 3, 2026 midterms, as I will have just turned 30 (eeeeek, lol) by then.

[maxsolomon]

57. Right, that's what the chart said. I got it.

That's not what the poster I was replying to said.

I wish your age cohort voted in greater numbers, but they never do.

[Celerity]

58. The last 3 elections we are consistently voting in greater numbers than all the Gens before

us did at the same age ever since the voting age was lowered.

Without us Millennials and Gen Zers increasing turnout and also voting deeply Blue, no Blue Wave in 2018, no Biden in 2020, and a Red Wave (or at least moderate size) would have likely hit us in 2022.

It is a given th Boomers plus the older gens will continue to vote, on balance for Rehugs, but they also are starting to die off (especially the oldest Boomers and then the Silent Gen), which will only accelerate as the years spin on. I do see a worrying trend that Gen Xer (especially the oldest 3/4ers or so) are sliding more Red, but hopefully that doesn't rise to the present Boomer and older level.

2024 will really give a fuller accounting of all these meta-trends.

Millennials and Gen Z should equal Boomers and up in terms of actual VOTES in 2024, and if you include the Xennials (aka the Carter Babies, ie those born 1977 to 1980/81 or so) we should pass them up in terms of actual votes. By 2028 and onward we will dominate the overall number of actual votes, so I have a lot of hope for the future atm.

[JudyM]

63. If we could get out our message more effectively your demographic would likely show up more.

If we can’t win via MSM, we can still tighten our messaging and get potent phrases out there repetitively so folks have more conviction that the stakes, and their vote, is meaningful.

This would help with a blue wave of activism, too. We need this so much!

[NNadir]

62. It is really great to have a young person here from what I expect will be...

...a great generation.

Sometimes I feel that there are only we old folks here from the generation that wrecked the place and now blithely assumes that you must clean up our mess.

Thanks for being here.

[Mariana]

13. Source, please?

Gen Z range in age from 10-25. Only about half of them are eligible to vote.

[bdamomma]

38. here's an article

about the Gen Z vote

https://www.ibtimes.com/gen-z-voter-turnout-helped-prevent-red-wave-3634525

[Mariana]

61. They did help prevent a Republican rout, and we should all be grateful.

I wanted a source for the specific claim that "The Gen Z vote outnumbered the over 65 vote".

[brooklynite]

6. Not particularly compelling...

You'd expect to see more successful Democratic candidates in TX and FL.

[Coventina]

10. I can't speak about Texas, but Florida has a few obvious special circumstances

1) DeSantis designed maps
2) Much bigger retiree population to compensate for any die-off. Old people keep coming there to "replenish" the MAGA population. One of my mother's Trump-loving sisters just moved there, for instance.

on edit: dumb spelling error

[brooklynite]

11. Senate and Governor races aren't Gerrymandered/

[Ligyron]

46. But they could be rigged.

IDK how exactly but I swear, something weird is going on with election results down here. Obama won in this state less than a decade ago but then suddenly Repugs start winning every election from dog catcher on up since then it seems.

There are a lot more Dem minded people here than one would think from the red flavored face of this state.

I'm telling ya, something funny is going on here...don't know how or have any proof but something doesn't smell right election wise.

[brooklynite]

52. When Charlie Crist, Val Demmings, or the head of the FDP says votes are being flipped...

...I'll pay attention. Right now its just a convenient no-fault way to explain losing.

[LeftInTX]

60. Rigged does not mean Covid deaths

1.07 M deaths
US population 331.9 Million
Voting age population 256 M
Registered voters 168 M

We don't know if the Covid deaths occurred among registered voters, active voters etc etc etc...
At the beginning of the pandemic, mostly Democratic voters were killed. Believe me, I know!! It killed off Democrats where I live.

So, at the most, it would have killed off about .5% of voters.

[Kennah]

7. That bitch Karma will knife you in the street and walk away

[Coventina]

8. Too bad, so sad.

[SheltieLover]

9. Thats what happens when you kill off your base.

Nah, people are sick of extremism.

[Trenzalore]

14. Father Time will be a factor in 2024

If Gen-Z cancelled out the baby boomers in 2022, they will have more votes than baby boomers simply by attrition in 2024.

[yankee87]

29. Boomer here

I don't know if I'll be here in 24, but I'm encouraged for my children.

[bdamomma]

16. It is sad.

But I remember hearing that the orange blob was killing off his own voters.

[onenote]

17. Pretty strange analysis

Last edited Mon Nov 14, 2022, 05:59 PM - Edit history (1)

First, it focuses on deaths occurring after vaccines were available. Which means it doesn't take into account the deaths that occurred before vaccines were available. That means at least 385,000 deaths that occurred pre-vaccine availability weren't considered -- more than 1/3 of all Covid deaths in the US. The data during the first year of COVID showed that Black and Hispanic individuals died at a higher rate than whites. The study doesn't take that into account nor does it take into account that a lot of those Black and Hispanic individuals, had they not died of COVID, would have voted for Democratic candidates. And given non-linear distribution of voters by race, that means in some places the death of a higher percentage of Black and Hispanic voters would have had a disproportionate impact on vote totals than in other places.

Second, it focuses on Ohio and Florida in finding the higher death rate for Republicans than Democrats. But Republicans did fine in those states. In Florida, around 82,000 have died from COVID since March 2020, and in Ohio, the number is around 40,000. I don't know the pre- and post- vaccination death numbers for the state, but given that 36% of all deaths from COVID nationwide were pre-vaccination, that means the universe of potentially impacted voters in Florida was around 54,000 and 26,000 in Ohio. The disparity of 5% in Republican deaths over Democratic deaths during 2021-2022 (and ignoring the probable higher number of Democratic voters dying in 2020) means that the number of excess deaths in Florida, state-wide, is around 1700. What is the likelihood that impacted the outcome in any of the elections in Florida. And in Ohio, the number of excess deaths would be even less.

[BlackSkimmer]

21. Very good points. nt

[applegrove]

23. Thanks for your analysis.

[Quixote1818]

36. I think it's a stretch to say it cost the GOP the midterms but there is no doubt it changed

a lot of very close races. If the race was within a few thousand votes then Covid probably made the difference. The bulk of the early deaths were in NY, NJ, CA. Interesting that we did pretty poorly in NY this round.

Ohio and Florida weren't that close so of course it would not impact them as much. I think they are pointing to a ton of races with very thin margins.

.

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. I looked at the 2nd link given - to Pew - rather than the 1st to the Ohio/Florida study

and while the bar charts don't give precise numbers, I would say that's nothing like "Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats." Though that may be because Pew divides by county and how much it went Biden/Trump in 2020, rather than attempting to work out how individuals voted and died.



Most supportive of Biden fifth, and next-most, are about even from the spring/summer 2021 period on; middle fifth about 12% more, fourth (ie leaning Trump) about 33% more, and the Trumpiest 5th about twice as much. I don't think that can add up to "Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats." More like "Republicans were 60%, Dems 40%".

In fact, I can't see where The Bulwark's "Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats." comes from. The paper says "Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate)." So that says the Republican post-vaccine Covid death rate was 153% higher than the Democratic one - which would be 253:100 Rep: Dem, or 72% Rep, 28% Dem (43% more, not "80% more" ).

That would be, in the 9,400 Covid deaths in Nevada, 4,074 more Republicans. Which is actually smaller than any of the margins given by The Bulwark.

[StClone]

49. Two other factors in Florida

-Cuban fears the Democratic Party = Socialist Rule so fear mongered into voting R.

-Arrests of black voters/felons struck fear in black voters and there are sources reporting this.

[reACTIONary]

56. +10 nt

[LittleGirl]

18. Those "conservatives" infected innocent folks

with their dismissal of the proven vaccine and some of those people died.
GOP Shame!
Selfish people!

[XorXor]

19. [channeling alex jones] So you're saying they created COVID to kill republicans and seize power?

You know someone has made that comment unironically after reading that headline. Of course pointing out the flawed logic in that won't matter to such people.

[PXR-5]

20. Bleach and Ivermectin! nt

[ThoughtCriminal]

22. IT may also be a factor in Arizona

Enough to have influenced the Governor's race.

[Samrob]

24. It didn't hurt them in Florida and they were the leading death rate state. nt

[applegrove]

25. But DeSantis won by so many votes. It is a red state now not a battleground state.

The Elections were won or lost in States like Nevada.

[RedSpartan]

26. Dying of Covid to own the Libs! Thanks!

[Samrob]

27. Two former high school classmates who were MAGA mega Trumpers. They hated Obama and Obamacare.

Both moved to FL around 2015. During 2020 they both railed against vaccines, masks, and closings of all types. Both died from COVID in early 2019. When we were in high school I had no idea that either were so racist and hateful.

[applegrove]

30. Covid didn't hit North America till 2020. There were no vaccines until 2021.

[ShazzieB]

45. Something's off with the dates here.

If they died in 2019, they wouldn't have been around to rail against anything in 2020.

Did you mean to say they died in early 2021?

[Initech]

28. Their "fuck you, I won't do what you tell me " attitude is their own worst enemy.

And honestly if they want to kill themselves because they won't take the vaccine? Not going to own me one bit. They are only owning themselves at this point.

[Raven123]

31. I doubt there was any single issue responsible, but this may have been one of several

[tanyev]

32. And that's why people running for office should be concerned about the health of their voters.

At least if they’re a sociopath and can’t summon any other reason to be concerned.

[IronLionZion]

33. Every vote is important

we had so many close elections this time. Many are still not decided.

COVID, Flu, and RSV are already increasing fast this winter.

[Snackshack]

34. Sad

Bemoaning GOP losses and blaming the loss on the death of large swaths of republican voters because the GOP took active measures to mislead and lie about COVID is unreal.

IMO everyone who said COVID was a “Hoax” in the former administration and congress should no longer be in congress and be charged with criminal negligence.

[McKim]

35. This Needs to Be Underscored and Pump through the Media

This shocking negligence of responsibility needs to be underscored and pumped through the media like “open borders”. No wonder the Republicans wanted to demonized Dr. Fauci!!!!! He would be the one to tell the nation the truth. My daughter had several patients who refused vaccines for various mythical reasons: Vaccines lower male fertility, Vaccines don’t work, Vaccines have side effects and on and on. These patients died! While this seems almost too horrible to believe, it is true that they neglected the health of the nation with deadly consequences! Start talking about it!

[Justice matters.]

44. Exactly. To ANY potential un-vaxxed freeper lurking: Guess what?

We got all our ARN shots.

We're still alive and well.

We kicked asses in Senate contests and in many states govs! 111

Stop hating. Stop watching your extremist cable shows and study the Science.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

39. TFG killed a good number of his supporters

[Patterson]

40. I heard a convincing radio program by the NYT that it was abortion.

[bdamomma]

41. Very insightful

and informative thread. K&R

[LudwigPastorius]

42. The GOP:

[LiberalFighter]

43. I question the Covid deaths were in excess.

[Demnation]

50. The Darwin effect.

[Takket]

51. good. fuck 'em

I rememeber many posts on DU about covidiots who screamed about vaccines dying of covid, and people here wondering why the hell the gop was convincing their voters to kill themselves. serves them right if this lost them any seats. i only feel sorrow for the Democrats who died because they tried doing everything right but were still exposed to this covidiots.

[OnlinePoker]

53. I wonder how many of these dead Republicans voted with absentee ballots. n/t

[former9thward]

54. If that were true how did DeSantis win by 20 points in FL?

And Abbott in TX? And Kemp in GA? And DeWine in OH?

[Wednesdays]

59. Herman Cain approves!