Nancy was on Colbert's show last night and all but guaranteed we hold the House

[CatWoman]

Do you think she really believes that, or that is something she, as leader, is obligated to say?

[hlthe2b]

1. I can only hope she is both self-convinced AND correct!

[CTyankee]

2. Nancy is too smart to be caught in a statement that turns out to be an outsized "guarantee"

That said, I think she is hearing from members who are hearing from their districts. It has to be pretty strong, I would think, for her to publicly talk like this.

I hope this isn't just a "hope for" moment...

[brooklynite]

3. Not what DCCC told me last week...

[CTyankee]

4. Oh. Fundraising. Yep I get those emails, too.

[brooklynite]

5. Nope; face to face with the Deputy Executive Director.

Had a chance to chat with DNC, DCCC and DSCC staff.

[JustAnotherGen]

7. Are they okay with you

Sharing this info? I share NOTHING that Marshall Cohen shares with me. Nothing. Discussions reserved for face to face Democratic Committee meetings only - and generally then only with the State and County directors.

[sheshe2]

19. +1

[yardwork]

37. I've wondered the same.

It doesn't seem wise to share that kind of info here.

[brush]

10. So are they agreeing with the Speaker?

[brooklynite]

14. What I was told is:

"We don't have the majority Today...but we can"

[herding cats]

32. That's a marketing 101 statement.

You are definitely an insider in your area with knowledge we can find enlightening.

It's extremely interesting to see how those with deeper pocketbooks than some of the rest of us are being courted and what's being used to entice them. I'm a boots on the ground person. I've never been involved in upper fundraising and I always find your perspective fascinating.

It's a different perspective from your shade of lenses than what I, and many others involved in the Democratic Party, deal with in our various interactions.

Politics, I just love how things are tailored to fit into each of our specific niches.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

38. How is that different from what a dozen other public sources are saying?

Back in March, it was clear that the GOP should win the House and may have won by a landslide like 2010. Repeal of Roe and other facts show that the trend favors the Democrats. If the GOP takes over the House, it will be a narrow margin where it will be hard to keep the MAGA idiots happy. The tea party idiots gave Boehner a majority in 2010 but these idiots drove Boehner out. If the GOP wins the House by a narrow margin, these idiots will have a hard time governing. I suspect that there will be enough non-crazy GOP representatives so that they will not impeach Biden more than once.

Speaker Pelosi is looking at the trends and from I have seen these trends are very favorable. The number of new women voter registrations and the number of young voters registering show a trend that I like. President Biden's announcement of first the student loan program and now the marijuana pardons will help with the youth vote. I suspect that Biden has discussed today's actions with senior DNC types who have briefed Pelosi.

I was in my county party headquarters on 2010 and I remember how sick I felt that night. Right now, I am going to trust Speaker Pelosi.

Again, the secret information you got your DNC contacts sounds like the same stuff that I have seen from several public sources.

[brooklynite]

39. The willingness of DCCC to say that to its top donors is significant.

[Demsrule86]

9. Really, I think Nancy is probably right about this...no races are considering the Roe vote. I say

we hold the House and the Senate...and after this. Let's have a new DNC chairman. I like Jaime but he doesn't have the experience we need for 24.

[ananda]

21. He's been a lot weaker than I expected.

What is it about Dems getting a strong DNC chair?

[Demsrule86]

22. It is a patronage/reward job...and it shouldn't be.

[Ms. Toad]

6. Either way it was stupid.

There are a certain number of people in every election who need to be afraid we will lose to motivate them to the polls. A top level democratic politician "all but guarnatee{ing} we hold the House" is not conducive to winning elections.

[brush]

12. How is it stupid? Of course she's going to express confidence.

You want her to say we're going to lose? Of course not.

As Speaker she's privy to the latest internal polling which surely factors in all aspects of the race...including the widespread dissatisfaction of the the Dobbs ruling which favors Dem candidates all over the nation.

[Ms. Toad]

25. Because borderline voters who think it's in the bag may stay home -

or when something comes up won't worry about not making it to the polls - since their votes aren't needed.

[brush]

29. Hogwash.

[Ms. Toad]

30. If you think it's hogwash,

Then you don't know much about human nature. Why do you think get it the vote efforts are emphasized so heavily, if there isn't a body of voters who are easily discouraged from going to the polls? Anyone who has ever done phone banking, or who has served as a driver to get folks to the polls knows it is those marginal voters who make the difference in close elections, and that we are always at risk that they will grab onto any excuse not to go vote.

Being told by a high ranking democrat that keeping the house is guaranteed is a pretty good excuse, or rationalization, for not making the effort on election day.

[brush]

31. Still hogwash. I want my leaders to express confidence.

Last edited Wed Oct 5, 2022, 12:08 PM - Edit history (1)

And who are you to call one of the most effective women in American political history stupid?

There are just as many theories against what you say as there are that agree with it as some voters may stay home if they think it's hopeless.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

33. A graph masquerading as a 'toon...

[betsuni]

36. +1

[betsuni]

35. +1

[mahina]

18. Disagree. People who think it's not possible could stay home.

Some social science experiments show people are more motivated to keep from losing something than the are motivated to get the same value

She’s many things (strategic, experienced) but stupid is not one of them.

[Ms. Toad]

26. There's a major chasm between saying it's in the bag and saying it's impossible.

Nothing I said suggested she should have said it was impossible.

But saying it's in the bag encourages voters who aren't dedicated voters to stay home (or not bother finding a way to the polls if something comes which makes it more challenging to get to the polls).

It would have been far better to say that there's a good chance we can hold onto the House - IF everyone goes to the polls. That sends both a message of hope, and an urgency that the hope will only materialize if we all get to the polls. We lose when voters aren't sufficiently motivated to get to the voting booth. Suggesting that something is a guaranteed win works against the motivation that is generated by different messaging - which suggests that every vote is needed in order to win.

I didn't call her stupid. I said it was a stupid thing to say, and I stand by that.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

34. 'Scuse me. Could you scrunch over a bit? I wanna stand by that, too.

We need the kind of crawl-over-broken-glass attitude taken by voters in 2020.

We lost to a criminal enterprise in 2016. Clawed back to hang on by our fingernails in 2018. Took a 1-vote lead in the Senate by way of the VP in 2020. Now we need to preserve and protect democracy, restore citizenship to women and girls and prevent the decline into insane theocracy that a radicalized Republican party seeks to impose on the nation.

It's time for every voter to be determined to be heard in Roevember.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. I saw her and she sounded sincere in her optimism.

[localroger]

11. I think the internal polling is looking really good

And every external indication is that D candidates will outperform the polls this cycle because nobody is able to reliably predict the effect of buh-bye-Roe on the normally tepid and scattered left and progressive vote.

[Hekate]

13. I think Mme Speaker does not bullshit. Every Dem, tho, still needs to do their bit to make it happen

[FakeNoose]

16. Yes indeed, and thanks for this opportunity to post my favorite GOTV meme

We all must do our part to GET OUT THE VOTE!

[sheshe2]

20. Love this!

[iemanja]

24. It clearly isn't a factual statement

1) She can't foretell the future
2) Most, if not all, of the political analysts believe the GOP will take back the house.
3) She was engaging in political gamesmanship.

538 has the Dems with a 31% chance of holding the House and Republicans with a 69% chance of taking it. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

It would be great if we could hold on, but it's hardly guaranteed.
The Senate, however, may be safe--if we're lucky.

[edhopper]

15. She said it would rely

on our ground game. She is right!

[mahina]

17. She means it

And I think she’s right. She doesn’t make these statements lightly

[lees1975]

23. Nancy rarely gets it wrong and she gets the facts straight before she says anything.

I think she knows what she is talking about.

[madville]

28. She said we would maintain the majority in 2010

And lost 63 seats a few days later….giving Republicans a 242-193 majority….

“ Nancy Pelosi, whose four-year run as speaker of the House of Representatives could be in its final months, offered an optimistic prediction about the outcome of Tuesday’s election during a brief photo opportunity on Capitol Hill.

“With the early returns and the overwhelming number if Democrats who are coming out, we’re on pace to maintain the majority,” she said.”

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-nov-02-la-pn-pelosi-photo-op-20101103-story.html

[madville]

27. 2010: Nancy Pelosi sounds a note of optimism

Nancy Pelosi, whose four-year run as speaker of the House of Representatives could be in its final months, offered an optimistic prediction about the outcome of Tuesday’s election during a brief photo opportunity on Capitol Hill.

“With the early returns and the overwhelming number of Democrats who are coming out, we’re on pace to maintain the majority,” she said.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-nov-02-la-pn-pelosi-photo-op-20101103-story.html

For those that don’t remember, Republicans gained +63 seats a few days later for a 242-193 majority….