An optimistic take on GOP voter laws and the 2022 election from Hal Sparks

[LymphocyteLover]

on the Stuttering John podcast. Relevant section starts ~55 minutes in.



https://stutteringjohnpodcast.libsyn.com/the-stuttering-john-podcast-june-5th-2021-dean-obeidallah?tdest_id=1230557


Basically he explains Manchin, Sinema and what Biden is doing. His interesting point is that he predicts the GOP voter suppression laws will hurt the GOP Trump base more than hurt our side.

He says we will likely gain seats in both the House and Senate in 2022. Sparks is a really smart guy, so alway sworth listening to.

[hauckeye]

1. Oh please let this happen

I’m getting really depressed about nothing getting done in the senate. Let’s make Manchin irrelevant!

[gab13by13]

2. I respectfully, totally disagree,

If it were only voter suppression laws he may have an argument but when you put politicians in charge of elections I see no possible good outcome.

"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

[el_bryanto]

7. That is a key point

If it's just the vote counting it will be a wash down here in Florida - as sure some people in Miami Dade and Tampa and Orlando and Jacksonville will find it harder to vote due to a lack of drop offs. On the other hand, the new complicated voting system means that in theory a lot of older folks (say, in the villages) will have a hard time parsing the ballot.

But once you have the republicans putting their hands on the scales; what's to stop them from saying "Hmmm too many votes in this black district . . . seems suspicious. Just to be safe we'd better invalidate these votes" or "Oh Poor Miss White - she didn't fill out the absentee ballot with all the supporting documentation. But I know who she is, so we'll just approve it"

It doesn't even need to be consciously malicious - just background racism that's never quite articulated but always acted on.

Bryant

[LymphocyteLover]

24. Agree the election oversight changes are very disturbing but I have to think they will not be able

to overturn a clear Dem win unless there is a blatant problem.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Without HR1, Dems will lose their majorities for a decade or longer

Numerous prominent Dems have acknowledged this. The former Obama staffers who run Pod Save America have acknowledged this.

If Hal Sparks was so smart, he’d be on MSNBC, not a podcast from one of Howard Stern’s former sidekicks.

[LymphocyteLover]

22. that's not a guarantee and partly those Dems are trying to motivate people towards activism

I listen to every show and I don't think the PSA guys have made such an explicit claim about us losing our majorities.

Also just because people are on MSNBC, doesn't mean they are that smart.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. PSA absolutely has stated that without HR1, Dems lose their majorities

Here is one of many examples:

[Bettie]

4. I go back and forth on this

but I keep coming back to people I have known over the years.

Nearly everyone, if unjustly told "you can't do this!" will move mountains to do that thing.

I hope enough people are pissed off that someone is trying to take something from them (their vote) that they will move those mountains, to vote.

[True Blue American]

12. Georgia proved that! Long lines to give us 2

New Senator’s!

[uponit7771]

16. That's voter suppression GQP is enacted access reduction and voter nullification. We're past VID ...

... and registration measures and into straight fascism by keeping Americans from voting and when they don't vote in favor of GQP overturning the elections.

This is way more illegal and dangerous into putting people in jail time

[Bettie]

19. And that worries me

though, I've been told today in no uncertain terms that everything is wonderful and that we must always say positive things about how perfectly everything is going.

I'm not doing well at that, because my small hope for some of this fuckery is that the courts get rid of the worst of it.

Sadly, given the state of the courts, I'm not all that hopeful.

They aren't even pretending that it isn't about suppression anymore (reference Texas AG's statement about how voter suppression is the reason Texas stays red).

[uponit7771]

27. I don't think people know what's going on with GQP fascist initiatives. One poster even said ...

... democrats aren't stupid and know how to vote as if it was a knowledge to vote was the main issue and not vote nullification and access denial

[Bettie]

28. Yep

And yes, we know how to vote based on the rules before. Now? Landmines and roadblocks abound.

Who knows what will have changed?

[Walleye]

5. I think beyond voter suppression the purpose of these laws is voter demoralization

Before this past election I believe it was Republicans that mostly voted by mail. I don’t see why they wouldn’t revert to that. We are used to difficulties in voting. Nevertheless we persist

[Phoenix61]

6. The only reason so many Dems voted by mail

was covid. I think making VBM harder will cost the Rs more votes then us. Plus, the lawsuits have already been filed and I think the worst parts of the new laws will be thrown out.

[gab13by13]

8. The #1 election lawyer

stated on TV that he can't stop everything. He stated that several laws being passed will not be thrown out. He said that it will take an act of Congress to keep our elections fair. What better source is there?

[Phoenix61]

11. The worst part of the laws is the ability of the legislature

to throw out the results of the election. I didn’t see those standing. A lot of the changes they made were based on changes people made in voting due to covid. Also, a name would be nice.

[Walleye]

14. That's what I tend to believe on both counts. But then I am an optimist and have faith in democracy

[uponit7771]

17. No, the laws in GQP ran states take it beyond just demoralization. Look at what Pax said in TX that

... they kept mail in from going out they would've lost Texas if everyone could vote by mail.

From that statement alone I would've put is skank ass in jail because the intent was to affect the election in Texas.

What the GQP is doing is not just rhetoric or trying to make it harder to vote via voter ID and registration issues, they've gone full fascist.

[Walleye]

21. Absolutely. I couldn't believe he said that out loud

[Johnny2X2X]

9. The whole point of the GOP voter suppression effort is to discourage Dem voters

Last edited Tue Jun 8, 2021, 11:33 AM - Edit history (1)

When every other thread on DU is about how the elections are rigged going forward, you know it's working. Voter Apathy is their goal.

Voter suppression efforts have a history of failing. The garbage they're trying to put in to give state legislatures more control will not be used to flip elections and if they try to use them that way they will not hold up in court, period.

I am confident we will have 53 or 54 seats in the Senate, making Sinema and Manchin no longer relevent. The House can be held, but only if Dems stop with all this defeatist nonsense. We are winning, we have control, we will win in 2022 as long as we get out the vote.

[uponit7771]

18. No, please see post 5 ... the GQP is way beyond discouragement. Look at what Pax admitted to in TX

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. There is no Electoral College in 2022 to provide a national focal point for overturning elections

"Fraud allegations" will have a State by State nexus. For elections to congressional federal offices (the House and Senate) there is a weaker constitutional mandate for State legislatures to determine winners - they don't get to certify a specific slate of electors as is the case in a Presidential election. I'm no election lawyer, but I suspect that an attempt by Republican legislatures to overturn Congressional elections would end up in Federal Courts.

[PortTack]

13. Johnathan Alter recently said something similar.

Bookmarking

[uponit7771]

15. It's not just voter suppression its access reduction and voter nullification GQP is doing too

[ananda]

29. That's the worrisome part.

Who counts and certifies the vote....

[GoCubsGo]

20. Been listening to Hal's daily mock-a-thons for more than year.

He has been pretty damn accurate when it comes to these sorts of predictions. Hopefully, this time will be no exception.

[LymphocyteLover]

23. Yes, he is incredibly informed and perceptive and often has unique things to say

[moondust]

26. Voter suppression may only be Plan A.

I don't know all the details of all these bills but there is growing concern over allowing legislatures to overturn election results if somebody in the back row yells "fraud" (like they've been doing now for months).

What they may be doing is setting up a fail-safe system using legislatures as a backup. Thus, if Plan A (voter suppression) fails then they activate Plan B (partisan legislature overturns results and installs the loser).

Republicans overcome by greed just don't see big enough rewards anymore in serving or listening to The People. They may believe they have gained enough of a foothold in the courts and the states and 70 million votes for a corrupt racist jackass to go ahead with their big plan to just forget about The People and set up a kind of autocratic corporatocracy/oligarchy. The rewards will be fabulous! They might even become trillionaires! Take that, Bezos!

[Silent3]

30. The parts of these laws where Republican legislatures can just ignore the voters...

...and declare Republicans to be the winners certainly don't hurt Republicans more than Democrats.

[LymphocyteLover]

31. agreed, but I tend to doubt that that mechanism will be used to steal any clear Dem win

the ones that bug me more is the Texas laws that allow poll watching and making people register to drive people to the polls. I hope those got taken to court.

[Silent3]

32. I've lost any faith that Republicans are afraid of brazen, naked power grabs

They're more afraid, it seems to me, of not making those power grabs.

Besides, we're a country that has lots of close elections. If every narrow Democratic win in a Republican-run state gets flipped to a Republican win, that could add up to quite a few Democratic losses.

[LymphocyteLover]

33. agreed... it's a real worry. All we can do is shine a light on it for now.