The New York Times has started live-polling TX-SEN, TN SEN and NV-SEN

[brooklynite]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tnsen-2.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html

[still_one]

1. oh boy!!! we can set this up as a sporting event, how exiciting., while the f**king country burns

[Hermit-The-Prog]

5. gots to have our horse race!

If we don't have our horse race, we might actually have to report on issues and shit.

[still_one]

6. ain't that the truth

[Initech]

12. This is fine!

[still_one]

13. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Baitball Blogger]

2. Here's a thought, maybe the Dems are working and can't come to the phone.

[Meadowoak]

3. Are they only calling rotary dial land lines?

[Fla Dem]

4. Actually this is pretty cool. But so many spam calls now, no one answers their phones

unless they know who's calling or the number is identified. I know I don't.

[Meadowoak]

7. This is why I don't trust polling anymore. You can see in real time that about 99% dont

Even answer, begs the question, who is the 1% that does answer, obviously it is seniors. We know how most of them vote.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Really cool

I have no idea how polls are taken at face value and as absolutes, when you watch a process like this play out. That's why I scoff at polls and used partisan adjustment numbers and liberal/conservative percentages as guideline for each state.

Today I was actually polled twice, one by YouGov in a political poll and a cell phone caller who asked about the Gillum/DeSantis race. I was very surprised at the later because only the Donna Shalala campaign has been contacting me by cell phone and not landline.

[RhodeIslandOne]

9. Who is answering their phone in TN at this hour?

[Awsi Dooger]

10. They stop calling later at night

I'm not sure exactly what time, but currently they are still calling in Nevada (Pacific time) while long stopped in Texas and Tennessee.

Scrolling to the bottom of each poll is interesting because it provides the breakdown of who they have reached and the breakdown by each category. I'm looking at the Nevada poll right now and, per logic 1 in 29 have responded at 65 and older, which is the most successful bracket and compares to 1 in 47 at 18-29 and 1 in 49 at 30-64. But they have targeted goals in each bracket so it doesn't continue to be an avalanche in one category as opposed to others.

Cell phones actually have higher success rate than landlines in that Nevada poll -- 1 in 32 compared to 1 in 44

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Very early in those polls but same problem -- whites without college education

In Nevada we are getting 38% of that vote but only 23% and 28% in the other two senate races being polled.

[Fla Dem]

14. Polls still going on. None have reached 250 respondents.

Not credible until they get at least that #. But right now all Dems trailing.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. The four House races have 500+ respondents and not looking good

Democrats trail in all four races. The OP linked the senate races but not the House races.

Granted, some of them are not considered our greatest pickup opportunities -- like PA-16 -- but it would be nice to see a lead somewhere.

Here are the House races:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-1.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ny01-1.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nc13-1.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-pa16-1.html

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Polling has resumed today in Texas and Tennessee

Predictit has reacted sharply to this Tennessee poll, even though obviously it is in the very early stages. Blackburn shot above 70% yesterday and today up another 5 cents to 76 cents.

Very basic reason for that: Bettors are always willing to move quickly to the side that was already seemingly undervalued by the fundamentals, and that would be the Republican in a state with high number of conservatives like Tennessee.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Rosen now narrow lead, Beto much closer, but Bredesen a disaster

Bredesen trails 56-39 in this small sample

Beto has closed to 51-45 down

Rosen in Nevada leads Heller 47-46 currently

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Concluded for the evening in Texas and Tennessee

Beto trails 53-44 among 526 respondents

Bredesen in Tennessee trails 57-39 among 366 respondents. That is the shocker. Unfortunately my friend from Las Vegas may be correct, in emphasizing for the last two years that Tennessee is the new Alaska in terms of a badly modeled state from a polling perspective...overstating the Democrat. Polling in 2016 had Hillary losing to Trump by 10-11. She lost by 26.

Rosen and Heller are tied at 46% apiece in Nevada among 396 responders. That might be promising if we assume these polls slant somewhat red based on who is responding. In looking at all three polls the gender gap is not what it should be. Women are preferring the Republican more than seems logical, or reflected in polling elsewhere.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Halted for the evening in Nevada

Rosen trails Heller 46-45 with 464 respondents

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html

One disturbing aspect of this Nevada poll is the supplemental question: Who would you vote for in the governors race?

Sisolak the Democrat is leading the polls but he trails in this New York Times version, 47-44.

That makes little sense because everyone assumes Rosen is fairing comparatively worse than Sisolak, in relation to the Republican. This poll right now has Rosen down 1 but Sisolak down 3, among the same block of voters.

Granted, there hasn't been much polling in that governor race recently.

[BlueStater]

20. What the hell happened in Tennessee?

Jesus H. Christ.

We're definitely not taking back the Senate with putrid numbers like this. Fuck red states.